Futurology

"Closed models dominate, with on average 80% of monthly LLM tokens using closed models despite much higher prices - on average 6x the price of open models - and only modest performance advantages. Frontier open models typically reach performance parity with frontier closed models within months, suggesting relatively fast convergence. Nevertheless, users continue to select closed models even when open alternatives are cheaper and offer superior performance. This systematic underutilization is economically significant: reallocating demand from observably dominated closed models to superior open models would reduce average prices by over 70% and, when extrapolated to the total market, generate an estimated $24.8 billion in additional consumer savings across 2025."

This is another sign that the AI bubble almost certainly has to pop. But there's an interesting implication here. Will open-source AI inherit the future?

Linux, Android, MySQL, Git, WordPress - are just a few of the open-source software solutions that dominate modern software & the internet. Will the bedrock of 2030s AI be open-source?

The Latent Role of Open Models in the AI Economy

When people imagine the possible collapse of highly centralized systems, like food production & distribution in developed nations, they often assume the result can only mean disaster.

But renewables point to a different outcome - decentralized self-sufficiency.

With your own solar setup, you can power all your energy needs, including transport with EVs. Not only that, you can power all your basic metabolic needs. Living off nothing but Solein doesn't sound like much fun, but it's a complete protein, so at least it would be a healthy diet.

Decentralized renewable energy is spreading throughout the developed world; will decentralized renewable-powered food production follow?

Source 1 - Reinventing the Subsistence Economy How Energy and Food Decoupling Rewrite the Map of Post-Growth Futures

Source 2 - This Protein Powder Is Made Out of Air and Uses 600 Times Less Water Than Beef

I'm actually speechless, because why?

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"In addition, after pressure from the Trump administration in the US, the IEA has resurrected its “current policies scenario”, which – effectively – assumes that governments around the world abandon their stated intentions and only policies already set in legislation are continued."

The IEA has a decades-long history of vastly underestimating renewables adoption, but it has now truly entered the realms of the absurd and ridiculous. To reach these new fossil-fuel-friendly industry conclusions, it has to ignore different global government's stated Net Zero Commitments. Include them, and that alone sees oil use 77% lower in 2050.

Another thing they had to ignore? Electric Vehicle adoption. These new figures assume there won't be any more in the world in 2050 than today.

The truth is that global coal use is already in steep permanent decline, and oil will soon follow.

As freeway/motorway driving is easier, one would have assumed self-driving vehicles would already be using them. However, the infrequency of critical events means there is less training data, and the higher speeds of travel are a challenge, too. No more, it seems.

The same will one day be true for outlier use cases like snowy roads, etc.

Like all technology, self-driving vehicles will be adopted on an S-curve, where one day their adoption and use will quickly become widespread. This is another sign that the day is ever closer.

Waymo hits the freeway in US autonomous vehicle first

This article is an interesting look at why young men are dating and socializing less. It makes the case that the physical world has become more anxiety-inducing, as economic opportunities have decreased. At the same time, the digital world has made all sorts of risky behaviors, from gambling to speculative investments easier. Some might say, the digital world is designed to encourage this addictive behavior.

These changes are significant because they have now marked a generation and are having profound social and political effects.

It would also seem that the trend seems set to continue, and perhaps get stronger. Where does this leave society in the 2030s & 40s?

The Monks in the Casino: A brief theory of young men, "the loneliness crisis," and life in the 21st century

Impressive considering electricity demand is growing at 6%, all that growth is now being covered by renewables. The rapid adoption of EVs means oil for transport is in decline, though still increasing in use as a chemical feedstock.

In other major areas of the world, the EU & US, C02 emissions have started to decline, too, but not yet in India.

Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months

Kimi K2 Thinking has continued the remarkable trend of Chinese Open-Source AI besting or equalling the Western closed source models investors are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into.

OpenAI floated the idea of a government guarantee for its debt, but then backtracked when the idea was badly received. It's inked deals to build $1.4 trillion in infrastructure. Where's the money going to come from? It's revenue is expected to be $20 billion in 2025; that's just 1.43% of that debt.

OpenAI says they have the potential to earn hundreds of billions a year, but where are the consumers who want to give them that amount of money? At every turn Chinese Open-Source models can do what they do, for a tiny fraction of the cost.

The Chinese renewables juggernaut rolls on. Today it's coal, soon it will be the same story for oil.

Australia is offering consumers three hours of free solar power a day to help stabilise its grid and use up excess power that is going to waste in off-peak periods. Those 3 hours will be enough to fully charge many people's electric vehicles.

Gas/combustion engine cars are already in their horse & buggy phase; some people just haven't caught up to reality yet.

Australian thermal coal producers are losing their growth markets

US Coal Exports Drop 11%

Indonesia’s exports dropped 12%

The second part of the video linked below is interesting. I haven't seen one of these humanoids walk in such a human-like fashion before.

They want to start mass-producing them in 2026. What will their capabilities be?

Interesting they talk of "open the SDK for IRON robots, jointly building a humanoid robot application ecosystem with global developers". Going this route by open-sourcing things seems to be the norm among Chinese robotics/AI firms.

Video in cross-post