Futurology

The US President and his formerly favorite South African have had a major falling out. The WH says it may pull all of SpaceX's contracts, the South African says 'go ahead', and he's decommissioning the Dragon crew vehicle, the US's only safe method of getting to and from the ISS.

Meanwhile, half of NASA's efforts are heading for the chop too.

"L'État, c'est moi." ("I am the state.") Louis XIV, the 'Sun King' said about his absolute monarchy. The problem with having just one person in charge is that everyone suffers when they behave idiotically. Sadly, the once mighty US Space Program looks like being a casualty of that. Surely, this paves the way for China to be the world's preeminent space power.

Three big, basic facts about Mars will render it forever out of reach for permanent human settlement. Read more about them on Substack.

Diamond prices are down 60% since a 2011 high, and they are still falling. It's not all down to lab-grown diamonds, demand is down too, especially in China.

No one can lab-grow gold yet, so its rarity and scarcity protect its value, but that will end too. It's just a question of when. China launched an asteroid touch-down mission this week, which will make it the 4th country/region to do so, after Europe, the US & Japan.

How soon will it be feasible to mine asteroids? Who knows, but a breakthrough in space propulsion might mean the prospect happens quickly when it does. It's possible gold has twenty years or less of being high value left.

The $80 Billion Diamond Market Crash Leaves De Beers Reeling

One of the most persistent biases in commentary on AI is many people's assumption that Silicon Valley VC-funded efforts are its main driver. But all the evidence points to something bigger than them - Open-Source.

Alibaba, the Chinese company that developed QwenLong-L1 isn't making their AI open-source out of the goodness of their heart. They get the benefit of lots of free workers improving it, and they also get to undermine their competitors. Many of the open-source AI are Chinese. It's possible China may be coordinating their efforts on a national scale, as a tit-for-tat retaliation measure responding to the US trying to weaken Chinese AI.

The global effect is the decentralized dispersion of AI technology with no one company or country dominating it - in the long run that will be its biggest outcome.

QwenLong-L1 solves long-context reasoning challenge that stumps current LLMs

Canada is heating up at twice the global average thanks to climate change. The fire seasons of 2023 and 2024 were the worst two years for wildfires in Canadian history - now 2025 looks set to beat their record.

Canadian wildfire smoke carries PM2.5 particles that can travel far into the U.S., worsening air quality in the Midwest, Northeast, and Great Lakes regions. These fine particles penetrate lungs and bloodstream, causing inflammation, lung damage, and higher infection risks. Children, the elderly, pregnant individuals, and those with heart or lung conditions are most vulnerable. Long-term exposure can worsen asthma, heart disease, and increase premature death risk.

Tough luck for Americans that they're living in the age of 'drill baby, drill' when the fossil fuel industry comes first, not them. As Lord Farquaad would say "Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make".

Article - More than 90 wildfires are out of control in Canada

The rocket is quoted as having a cargo capacity of ten tonnes. How much do they think each launch will cost? If it's $1 million, then that is $100 per kg. Is there anyone willing to pay that much money for same day delivery?

There are four other Chinese companies who say they are close to launching reusable rockets too, and expect to launch in 2025/26 - iSpace, LandSpace, Deep Blue Aerospace, Galactic Energy - though the last is only talking about a reusable booster.

Also interesting - the publicly disclosed funding for this company is less than $100 million. I'm assuming they had more they did not disclose. If they managed to do this for $100 million, that seems very impressive.

China completes first sea-based vertical landing of reusable rocket

The startup's wikipedia page

China's Taobao working with startup on deliveries by reusable rocket

Try as we might, we will never escape the limits imposed by Carnot’s logic. The same is true for Newton’s and Einstein’s and that of many others who have worked to describe the universe as it is and not as they want it to be. In that regard, Carnot haunts us. They all haunt us. As our imaginations run wild on fantastical technologies and fantastical futures, the laws of physics will be there to keep us in check.

The sooner we shed our biases about the future, the sooner we face Carnot’s ghost head on, the smarter and sounder our decisions about the future will be. Read more on Substack.

Space looms large in our futurist thinking. It's important to address what we misjudge to be possible in that realm in order to bring our expectations back down to Earth. Read more on Substack