Did anyone hear a “pop?”
Futurology
unfortunately, not yet.
Markets are closed
The classic pattern of "commoditize your complement", where an industry that depends on some other product acts to ensure that the market for that product is impossible to monopolize.
Or, less charitably, the classic pattern of destroying rivals by giving away what they're trying to sell.
Either way, it's a weird timeline where China has become the bastion for openness and intellectual progress in this field, but I guess I'll take it over OpenAI maintaining an iron stranglehold on the technology.
We are paying for our own prison.
And then people will complain "how did it get like this?"
And didn't "OpenAI" try to justify this horseshit by complaining about Chinese open source models somehow stealing the tech of their closed source models?
Well yes, and I think it's probably true, you can use one model to train another, effectively cloning it. It seems like it's much more expensive to make the first round of good models. Part of the argument could be that openai/anthropic are actually still driving the frontier, developing the researchers and expertise to do that, and continuing to innovate the tech
Distillation goes brrrr.
And that's not really a burn on them. The only people here who were dumb were the Western leaders who neglected to consider weights are easy to copy.