The Government of Finland published a future scenario paper which includes four alternative future scenarios: The World of Cooperation, The World of Tech-giants, The World of Blocks and The Fracturing World, an environmental and societal collapse scenario. Here's a translation of the collapse pathway of The Fracturing World scenario. You can find the rest of the scenarios in Finnish here: https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/handle/10024/166464
Scenario path – key takeaways from scenario phasing in a fractured world
2025–2029: The transformation of the world order and growing uncertainty
The US-China trade war will intensify during Trump's second presidential term.
The US's protectionist economic policy is weakening its economic growth
and economic dominance. Most regions and countries are striving for the greatest possible self-sufficiency. Mutual cooperation in the West is fracturing.
Russia is taking advantage of the war situation in Ukraine, which has turned into a victory, and is waging a continuous hybrid war against the West.
No agreement can be reached at international climate, nature and environmental conferences.
The great powers and several large states are establishing space forces as part of their defence forces. States are investing significant amounts in the development of security technology, as they are under high public pressure to maintain order in a socially tense situation.
The conflict in the Middle East is escalating into a wider war. The conflict situation in Africa is worsening, the worsening famine and heat in the region are driving millions of people as refugees, mainly to neighboring regions, but also to a significant extent to Europe.
International security is weakening and armaments are accelerating. Dictatorships are strengthening their positions. Wars and conflicts are weakening the environment. Inequality and polarization are increasing globally.
The pluralism of traditional media is weakening due to profitability challenges and concentration of ownership, and trust in it is declining.
Misinformation and disinformation are rampant. Decisions are not based on researched information.
2030–2034: Dissolution of climate and democracy agreements
The majority of countries will withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and EU member states will abandon the EU's climate obligations.
States will strongly arm themselves against military threats against themselves.
Technology competition between countries will intensify further.
Measures related to climate change mitigation and human well-being will weaken.
Decision-making in the European Union is deadlocked, enlargement will fail and Hungary will leave the EU. Undemocratic governments will weaken the EU's rule of law, and regional groupings will form within it.
China will expand its sphere of interest in Asia.
There will be repeated military threats and isolated armed conflicts in Finland's neighbouring areas.
People's resilience to crises is being tested, and generations of working age are experiencing disenfranchisement. As disinformation increases and takes over, it is almost impossible for people to recognize what is true.
2035–2039: Deterioration of Ecosystem Services and Climate Migrations
The intensification of climate change and the lack of clean water are driving people to move more and more and causing uncontrolled climate migration. Extreme weather events are causing famine and conflicts.
Nature loss is progressing, weakening the ability of ecosystems to produce ecosystem services that humans need: the number of pollinators is collapsing, which is threatening global food security. Crime related to natural resources is increasing; the ability of states to protect them is weakening.
Only selected and varying transactions remain in the multilateral system.
Russia influences the politics of many EU countries and Balkan countries.
Russia is militarily aggressive and engages in continuous and powerful hybrid influence.
Some of the world's states are falling under the control of criminal groups due to economic and social collapses.
An uncontrolled global pandemic begins. Energy and food production is in crisis, becoming more expensive and being speculated on in the hope of quick profits.
The financing of public services is in crisis even in rich countries, and people are seeking safety in disparate communities. Child and maternal mortality is increasing globally. Movements are emerging that emphasize analog life.
2040–2044: The breakdown of alliances and the destruction of nature
States and regions focus on fighting their internal crises, for example Alliances based on NATO or the EU have broken down, and the remnants of the great powers do not provide security in the world.
Traditional institutions of democracy become fragile and even lose their significance.
With the destruction of nature, the possibilities of life on the planet are weakening. Methane has been released powerfully from the bottom of the seas, and the seas no longer function as any kind of sink.
Large masses of people are on the move and are looking for a better life wherever they can. Small movements, for example linked to wealth, religion or ancestry, have become stronger and play a central role in local, differentiated communities.