Lugh

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On Bluesky and enshittification (fediversereport.com)
submitted 2 weeks ago by Lugh to c/futurology
 

Boston Dynamics latest demo of its humanoid robot Atlas shows the day when robots can do most unskilled and semi-skilled work is getting closer. At the current rate of development that may be as soon as 2030.

Many people's ideas of the future are shaped by dystopian narratives from sci-fi. For storytelling purposes they always dramatize things to be the worst possible. But they are a poor way of predicting the future.

UBTECH, a Chinese manufacturer's $16,000 humanoid robot is a better indicator of where things are going. The sci-fi dystopian view of the future is that mega-corps will own and control the robots and 99% of humanity will be reduced to serfdom.

All the indications are that things are going in the opposite direction. The more likely scenario is that people will be able to purchase several humanoid robots for the price of an average car. It's not inconceivable that average people will be able to afford robots to grow their own food (if they have some land), maintain their houses, and do additional work for them.

Meta's Open Source Robotics AI

 

Here's a video of the latest version of the humanoid robot Atlas.

Boston Dynamics has always been a leader in robotics, but there are many others not far behind it. Not only will robots like Atlas continue to improve, thanks to Chinese manufacturing they will get cheaper. UBTECH's version of Atlas retails for $16,000. Some will quibble it's not as good, but it soon will be. Not only that but in a few years' time, many manufacturer's robots will be more powerful than Atlas is today. Some Chinese versions will be even cheaper than UBTECH's.

At some point, robots like these will be selling in their thousands, and then millions to do unskilled and semi-skilled work that now employs humans, the only question is how soon. At $16,000, and considering they can work 24/7, they will cost a small fraction to employ, versus even minimum wage jobs.

[–] Lugh 3 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

Yeah, like everything the challenge is to get from the Lab to production. Perovskite solar cells, another type of solar cells that show great theoretical promise, have issues with long-term stability. Solar cells need to survive in tough conditions for many years to be useful. Here I would also wonder about the relative scarcity of gallium being a limiting factor.

[–] Lugh 1 points 3 weeks ago

That I can help you with.

Without doxxing them, this reddit user campaigns a lot IRL on UBI - their posts/UBI subreddits have loads of stuff - https://www.reddit.com/user/2noame

Also Twitter has load of stuff - search 'UBI' there, scroll down based on 'Top' and there are lots of accounts devoted to UBI news.

BTW - You're welcome to setup https://futurology.today/UBI here too & cross-post/double-post if you want

[–] Lugh 3 points 4 weeks ago (1 children)

Bet it's going to be China building most of the humanoid robots too.

[–] Lugh 2 points 4 weeks ago (2 children)

apart from posting regularly, sadly I don't have many ideas. 😞😞

We've had real trouble growing this site from the reddit sub-reddit, and the promotional posts we've done, in total, have had tens of thousands of views

[–] Lugh 3 points 4 weeks ago (1 children)

the people that own the machines have any interest in keeping us alive

I never take ideas like that seriously. Even in sci-fi, the concept seems wildly fanciful.

[–] Lugh 4 points 4 weeks ago (2 children)

If AI/robotics follow the typical s-curve of technological adoption, I think the 2030s is most likely. We already seem to be at the beginning of that s-curve in 2024.

[–] Lugh 10 points 4 weeks ago

That's a hard no from me. I won't go near Google or Microsoft's latest AI offerings either. That said I'm using gen-AI in other contexts more and more. I'm fine with it, as long as it has strictly limited access to my data.

[–] Lugh 4 points 4 weeks ago (4 children)

That is one way of looking at this. An alternative view is to say - "The day is coming when AI & robots can do all work, but for pennies on the hour" - will probably arrive by the 2030s. Every day we waste on pointless conversations that are destined to go nowhere, is a day we waste planning for the future. Worse than that, the chaos and despondency the AI/jobs threat creates, adds to the general conditions that are making the rise of fascism and the far right more prevalent.

[–] Lugh 15 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago) (16 children)

I sympathize, most of my work falls under the category of 'creative' too. But this conversation about AI & robotics needs to quickly move to UBI, or universal access to basic needs like health and housing. The day is coming when AI & robots can do all work, but for pennies on the hour & a free market economy isn't viable any more. This approach doesn't acknowledge that; it still assumes a free market economy can work in the future.

[–] Lugh 3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Big caveats here, no peer reviewed results etc. However, I suspect the basic principle is sound. It makes you wonder what more advanced versions of something like this could do.

[–] Lugh 8 points 1 month ago (3 children)

People have often tended to think about AI and robots replacing jobs in terms of working-class jobs like driving, factories, warehouses, etc.

When it starts coming for the professional classes, as this is now starting to, I think things will be different. It's been a long-observed phenomena that many well-off sections of the population hate socialism, except when they need it - then suddenly they are all for it.

I wonder what a small army of lawyers in support of UBI could achieve?

[–] Lugh 0 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

What's your point? We know AI can be deployed in dishonest ways. So can books, and newspapers.

It's Critical-Thinkig-Skills-101 to not fall for the 'one of the blue people is bad, therefore all blue people are bad' argument.

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