In all cases some jobs were removed, but other jobs were created.
Yes, this has always happened before. But what happens when AI & robots can do most or nearly all work? What business will survive paying human wages (+health, +social security) when its competitors can get the job done for pennies on the dollar with robots & AI.
That is the scenario I'm getting at.
Deflation is the death of market systems.
That was precisely my point.
If you posit a world is coming where AI & robots can do more and more of the work humans do, and ever cheaper - it seems likely to be a world with deflation. Especially if incomes are falling. As AI & robots do more work - humans will need to compete with them for the remaining jobs, while overall incomes are falling. Perhaps it won't be like this, but I don't find the complacent 'everything will be fine' interpretations of how this will play out convincing.
The irony here is what UBS calls 'the great transfer' is inherited wealth going from generation to generation among the wealthy, yet what most people will think when they hear this phrase is something different. They will think of the ongoing growth of inequality and the transfer of wealth from the majority upward to the super-wealthy.
UBS talks of a 20-year timeframe where they see this continuing, but I wonder. I suspect all that wealth is on flimsier foundations than many think. A lot of today's wealth is based on sky-high valuations for stocks and property. I wonder how long they will last as AI and robots does more and more work - reduces incomes, but also reduces prices and makes deflation a permanent part of the economic landscape.
EU law administration and enforcement is complicated. One of its complexities is that laws that are decided at the EU level, are mostly enforced at the national level, after each of the 27 EU countries has made their own version of them. As most global tech companies have their European HQs in Ireland, it's often Ireland's version of EU law that applies to them. Hence this new law by Coimisiún na Meán, the Irish Media Regulator, is significant.
It's quite wide-ranging, but one of its most impactful aspects is that (if made law) it would require algorithms to be turned off by default, and people only having them if they opt in. Big Tech companies will lobby to water this down before it actually becomes law, but they might not succeed. There was large-scale rioting in Dublin recently driven by far-right disinformation about immigrants on social media. The Irish government is normally the good cop to the EU's bad cop when it comes to Big Tech regulation, but in this case, the mood might have turned against Big Tech.
we wage a total war for our survival against the wealthy
That seems very dramatic. I wonder if the Covid pandemic is a more realistic example of how things will play out. It's amazing how in the space of only several weeks in March-April 2020 the whole planet changed so dramatically, and yet in such a calm, orderly fashion.
I often hear people say there is no need to worry about robots taking jobs, as automation has always done that, but new jobs have been created. The problem with that line of thought is - what happens when AI & Robots can do all the new jobs too? They'll be much cheaper. What business is going to survive paying human wages (+health +social security contributions, etc) - when another business can do the same with robots/AI for pennies?
In recent years, narratives about China tend to focus on various rivalries with Western countries. What's less talked about is how crucial China is to fighting climate change. If it wasn't for Chinese manufacturing bringing down the cost of solar panels, current global efforts would be dead in the water. No other country has the manufacturing capacity to do what they have done.
It's important to ask if they could do the same for hydrogen electrolyzers. If they could, it would mean green hydrogen (produced from renewables and water) is price-competitive with natural gas. Where natural gas is used, it's easy to use hydrogen instead. Over 20% of primary global energy comes from natural gas (almost as much as coal, and oil).
bring back equines and bovines
mmm, interesting take on a lemmy community devoted to futurology...
Perhaps. The problem with this line of thought is that it assumes reasoning will arise spontaneously, but doesn't know how. It doesn't inspire much confidence as the basis for a hypothesis.
Fully self-driving vehicles (AKA Level 5 self-driving vehicles) still seem some way off, but Level 4 vehicles have arrived. Some people might have expected adoption to take off more quickly, but there's a range of factors slowing things down. People think they are less safe than human drivers. In fact, research indicates the opposite, and every year that goes by will only make that more true. AI will continuously improve; human drivers won't.
Trucker's Union's are opposed. That's not surprising, and we'll see stronger opposition like that as robo-cars, robo-buses, and robo-trucks become more common. Driving jobs are one of the last reservoirs of employment opportunities for males without a college education. Globalization has already radically reduced their employment opportunities and income, and AI & robotics are set to be even worse.
Some people seem wildly optimistic about AGI being around the corner. Yet there's no indication the current approach to AI will deliver AI with independent reasoning abilities. In fact, despite decades of attempts, no one has outlined how AI might acquire reasoning ability. Without that, no AGI.
It seems reasonable to think if you could have a neuralink type link between your brain and computer, then it would work easiest with one of these types of computers. It would ne nice to think I could upgrade my brain as easily as installing a new hard drive or RAM on a computer.