this post was submitted on 07 Dec 2023
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Futurology
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I often hear people say there is no need to worry about robots taking jobs, as automation has always done that, but new jobs have been created. The problem with that line of thought is - what happens when AI & Robots can do all the new jobs too? They'll be much cheaper. What business is going to survive paying human wages (+health +social security contributions, etc) - when another business can do the same with robots/AI for pennies?
At that point we'll finally have to give up on capitalism, we'll employ a UBI for everyone and live like a retired Picard.
How did the Picard family have an enormous house, and hundreds of acres of land in a socialist society?
You'd be better off asking Gene Roddenberry that. But TNG made it look awesome.
It sure did.
It bugged me the Raffi was depicted living in a trailer in the middle of nowhere in Picard, like she had been impoverished by getting kicked out of Starfleet, and complains about Picard having a nicer place. That's not how shit is supposed to work in that world.
Postscarcity would mean that everyone could live in fancy vineyard if they wanted, and Picard just happens to have one with a personal history.
Exhibit 97 for why Picard was a terrible show that never should have been made.
So, TBH I don't get the hate. There's goofy bits in every series. I enjoyed it overall.
There was way too much hand waving in Picard for me, and not nearly enough substance.
At that point the working class gets so hungry that we wage a total war for our survival against the wealthy. Or we get propaganda and bread and circuses sufficient to keep us barely away from it
That seems very dramatic. I wonder if the Covid pandemic is a more realistic example of how things will play out. It's amazing how in the space of only several weeks in March-April 2020 the whole planet changed so dramatically, and yet in such a calm, orderly fashion.
"Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have found out the exact measure of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them, and these will continue till they are resisted with either words or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress."
--Frederick Douglas
I think a common misconception is that people will find new jobs. If I'm remembering correctly, studies on automation of furniture production found that displaced workers mostly just fell into poverty.
Certainly SOME people will find better jobs, but if it were simple and easy for people to find "high skill jobs" instead of thier warehouse work, they would have already done it.
And yet, nobody complains about the mechanical loom anymore.
If you've invested a lot training to be a master weaver, yeah, there's no getting those years back when you're replaced. That the number of jobs stays the same is completely and verifiably true, but there's definitely losers every step of the way, who basically just get knocked down to unskilled labour, or who have to relocate altogether (but usually more winners).
People do lament poverty and the consolidation of wealth into owners through the displacement of the worker.
Just because we run swiftly in front of the whip of capitalism does not mean we should dismiss those who trip and fall. We should be angry that there is a whip at all.
If it happened, yeah. Inequality is actually way lower than in the late 1700's, though. There's other things that can feed into it or pull it back.
As for the plight of the weavers, I agree, but the root problem isn't automation. You could say it's "capitalism", but I prefer to be more specific. We have a situation where stages of life that everyone is supposed to achieve are exposed to market risk, and they shouldn't be. A basic income would be good, and maybe some sort of insurance scheme for senior workers that offers a safety net if their industry collapses.
The issue I have with the far left, if that's where this is going, is that a detailed alternative is never supplied. When pressed, some of them point to Stalinist utopias I don't believe actually existed, others point to anarchist projects that never quite got off the ground, but neither can actually explain either system at a granular level.
True! I personally feel that UBI would be the easiest pill for the West to swallow. It is totally compatible with capitalism, and addresses the most urgent needs of individuals.
I feel like a slightly more radical solution which is also compatible with capitalism would be laws requiring substantial stake in ownership in companies for workers. Proportional to the quality of employees and time worked. Meaning, that if you work 15 years at Amazon and get replaced by a robot, you see some passive income over time for the value you contributed. Likewise, the sale or liquidation of a company would see past workers getting some sort of payout.
Worker ownership also has potential, and I support it! The one sticky issue is things like tech startups, with few employees but large startup costs.
I think that absolutely is the point of transition. Making a few jobs obsolete is progress, making them all obsolete is new and uncharted territory.
Then new jobs will open.