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submitted 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) by Espiritdescali to c/futurology

If billionaires actually cared about saving the planet, they’d pool their vast wealth and buy everyone a heat pump. Instead of burning planet-warming fossil fuels, these appliances extract warmth from even freezing outdoor air and transfer it into a building, thanks to neat tricks of physics. In the summer, they reverse to act like an air-conditioning unit. One recent study found that if everyone in the United States got a heat pump, it’d slash emissions in the building sector by 36 to 64 percent, and cut overall national emissions by 5 to 9 percent. (Because they’re fully electric, heat pumps run on a grid increasingly loaded with renewable energy.)

Not that billionaires would ever have the altruism or desire to buy us all heat pumps—megayachts aren’t going to buy themselves, after all. But if they did, there’d be one critical hurdle they’d run into—the one thing that’s holding heat pumps back from their full potential more generally: There aren’t enough trained workers yet to install them.

“No one talks about supply chain constraints anymore. What is now the bottleneck is actually the installer,” says Philipp Krinner, CEO and cofounder of Arch, a platform that helps HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning) companies manage customers. “In the winter and in the summer—in the peak seasons—when most people actually want to install a system, it’s actually still a contractor-constrained market.”

The result is classic “greenflation,” a temporary rise in the costs associated with decarbonization due to market constraints, says climate economist Gernot Wagner of the Columbia Business School in New York. “Yes, there is a shortage of qualified contractors,” he says. But it’s a good problem to have, he argues, and “one where there’s an obvious solution” on the road to decarbonizing our civilization. It’ll be costly to train more workers in the green economy, but that’ll end up paying huge dividends.

“Electricians get talked about a lot, and used as sort of an avatar for all of the jobs that are going to be needed to install heat pumps and decarbonize the economy,” says Alexandria Herr, senior research associate at Rewiring America, a nonprofit that promotes electrification. “But it’s not just electricians—it’s actually a whole range of different jobs across the construction trades.” Qualified workers are needed to determine what kind of heat pump a home or business requires, to install the things, and then to service them. A heat pump is fundamentally different from a gas-fired furnace, and it requires fundamentally different training.

That would include workers specializing in “weatherization”—better insulating homes so heat pumps get even more efficient. And we’ll need specialists to retrofit the grid so it can smoothly transition to handling the ebb and flow of renewable energy, which is what makes heat pumps so climate-friendly. And we’ll need workers in manufacturing to produce the units themselves.

And we need these people ASAP. Heat pump sales are already outpacing the sale of gas furnaces in the US. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 provides thousands of dollars in tax rebates and credits for households to both switch to a heat pump and pay for the electrical upgrades that may be required to run the appliances. Last year, the Biden administration announced $169 million to supercharge the domestic manufacturing of whole heat pumps and their individual components. And in February, nine states signed a memorandum of understanding to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps.

So the demand is there, as is growing support from the federal and state governments. What’s lagging is the workforce—at least temporarily. And the US is nowhere near alone: Wherever heat pump adoption is growing, more workers need to train up to meet demand. “If you look at a place like, say, Finland, where pretty much all your heating systems are heat pumps, this is not really an issue anymore,” says Jan Rosenow, who studies electrification at the Regulatory Assistance Project, a policy NGO for the energy community. “If you wanted to buy an electric car 10 years ago, it was quite difficult, wasn’t it? Now, you can go to any showroom and you can find them. I think the same is going to be the case with heat pumps. It’s already the case with heat pumps in more mature markets.”

In the US, though, we don’t have some sort of giant, national program to quickly get more people trained in HVAC. “It would just make sense that there would be this path to learn more about heat pumps, and then there would be a whole armed force to go out and install these things,” says Ed Janowiak, manager of HVAC and refrigeration design education at the nonprofit Air Conditioning Contractors of America. “There is such an opportunity right now for people to get in on the ground level. It should not take them very long to make a decent wage at it. And I still sit here at times with my palms in the air as to why it isn’t just automatically happening.”

There isn’t one official pathway in the US for HVAC workers, but several. Trade schools and community colleges provide HVAC training. Trade unions offer apprenticeships, and many HVAC companies run their own training programs to get people into the trade. “The most successful companies right now that are finding these people to install, they’re not necessarily hiring people that are already in the field,” says Janowiak. “But if you look at the number of technicians that go through those programs nationally, versus the demand, it’s just not there. So we need a lot more people.”

For veteran HVAC workers already trained in fossil-fuel systems, like installing gas furnaces, heat pump manufacturers provide their own training to install their products, which is of course in their interest. HVAC companies also do their own heat pump training for established workers, which usually takes two days. If a home has ducting, a heat pump will work similarly to a traditional AC unit, so the installation is nearly identical.

But all these workers don’t just have to be trained, but trained well, lest they inadvertently turn customers off of the energy-efficient appliances just as the heat pump revolution is getting going. If the size of the heat pump doesn’t suit the size of the home, or the ducting within, it won’t be as efficient. If you don’t have ducting, a contractor might recommend a simpler ductless heat pump, which is set into an outside-facing wall. “My biggest hope is that those people who do end up installing these, do get trained wisely,” says Janowiak, “and they do install pieces of equipment that work the way we want them to.”

An added challenge is that the US needs a robust network of training programs all across the country: You can’t have someone remotely install a heat pump, which means we’ll need not just an army of trained workers, but a properly distributed one.

Over in the UK, the energy supplier Octopus Energy has even built two full-scale model houses for workers to train in, one representing modern housing stock and the other older brick stock from the 1960s or 1970s. The company uses the homes to train workers new to the heating industry—it directly employs these folks during the education process, so they get paid—but also to reskill veterans who’ve been installing fossil-fuel systems. “Actually, we don’t really have a skill shortage at all—we just have a set of people that are installing the wrong product,” says John Szymik, CEO of Octopus Energy Services. “We built those [model homes] in order to show people how you’d optimize a rollout for the mass market.”

Working in an older UK home, for instance, technicians need to account for much worse insulation than in a modern home. The size of the home matters, as does the number of occupants and kinds of windows. All that data goes into a calculation that Octopus uses to determine the size of the heat pump. “Those homes are really, really helpful for our surveyors’ understanding of how to go around and measure up,” says Szymik. Then during a heat pump installation in the real world, a newly trained worker would join a crew of more experienced technicians. “What you get there is the opportunity to blend your people that have been working on this for a while, have more experience, with the people that are coming into it fresh with slightly less experience.”

A new breed of heat pumps is also making it possible for some people to skip hiring a trained installer entirely. The ​​New York City Housing Authority, for instance, is deploying units that slip over a window sill and plug into the wall. One of the companies making that type, Gradient, says that a resident can install one in less than an hour, in contrast to a team of technicians installing a traditional heat pump in about a day. For an apartment dweller without ducting, this might be an ideal option that skips the extra step of having a contractor analyze the space and deploy a more complicated system.

The other option is to just hope the heat pump revolution unfolds smoothly on its own: Maybe the HVAC industry will meet that demand with American-made devices installed by newly trained workers. Finland, after all, eventually found its way. “There may well be the need for large-scale retraining programs,” says Wagner. “Maybe I’m too much of a business school economist—please excuse me of that—but frankly, one answer is to simply get out of the way and let the market do its thing.”

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[-] grue@lemmy.world 18 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

A heat pump is just a normal HVAC with a reversing valve (and maybe without the furnace part, if you're not worried about backup emergency heat). How hard could it be??

I mean, I guess I get it if you're installing it up North in a building that previously only had heat without AC, because it means you have to do all the load calculations and stuff. Plus, you may need to retrofit ductwork because your heat was hydronic with radiators. That, I admit, is a big job.

But where I am in the South, it seems like it'd be simpler, if anything, because it means you can just cap off the natural gas line and not have to deal with it. Otherwise, (unless you're doing insulation improvements at the same time or something) it's a like-for-like replacement of the AC that any building around here definitely already has, and which any normal HVAC technician ought to be able to do.

[-] Flyingpeakock@lemm.ee 4 points 2 weeks ago

Hydronic heat with radiators can be used with heat pumps. Look up air to water heat pumps.

[-] Blue_Morpho@lemmy.world -2 points 2 weeks ago

All whole house heatpumps are installed with backup heat.

[-] grue@lemmy.world 4 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

All of them used to be, yes, but with advancements in technology that allow the heat pump to work at colder temperatures while keeping a reasonable coefficient of performance, it's becoming less and less necessary for folks in hot climates (and by that I mean places as far north as Chicago, at least according to the Technology Connections guy (@techconnectify@mas.to)).

See also:

https://www.ecohome.net/guides/3785/do-heat-pumps-need-a-backup-heat-source/

https://www.hunker.com/12293769/heat-pumps-with-auxiliary-heat-vs-without-auxiliary-heat

[-] NOT_RICK@lemmy.world 2 points 2 weeks ago
[-] reddithalation@sopuli.xyz 6 points 2 weeks ago

electric heat strips in an air handler is a common option

[-] SmoothLiquidation@lemmy.world 2 points 2 weeks ago

Sometimes they install a furnace along with the heat pump if you are worried about REALLY cold days where they are less effective.

[-] Itsamelemmy@lemmy.zip 3 points 2 weeks ago

You also need the backup for the defrost cycle. Which basically just turns the AC on to heat up the outside unit to melt ice. You don't want cold air blowing into your house while trying to heat it.

[-] threelonmusketeers@sh.itjust.works 11 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

~~I fail to see the connection between Apple's iPhone spyware problem and heat pumps.~~

Also, obligatory Technology Connections: https://youtube.com/watch?v=DTsQjiPlksA

Edit: Thanks for cleaning up the post.

[-] 9point6@lemmy.world 6 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

Dude you've done a pretty bad job of copying the article content here, I don't think we need your video recommendations

[-] Espiritdescali 8 points 2 weeks ago

Apologies, I've edited the post to take these out. I just copy and pasted from top to bottom

Thanks for cleaning it up! Much nicer reading experience now.

[-] LazerFX@sh.itjust.works 6 points 2 weeks ago

Heat pumps are, at heart, not special. They're air conditioning units, rated to run both ways. That's it. This is just bullshit.

[-] MagicPterodactyl@lemmy.ml 3 points 2 weeks ago

Yeah I don't get it. They've been in common use since the 50s.

[-] Septimaeus@infosec.pub 5 points 2 weeks ago

I got HVAC certified (608 type 1) and do it myself. It’s not expensive or difficult, and it’s useful to know how to do small installs and maintenance. (For starters, you can save quite a lot buying HVAC equipment direct from manufacturers.)

[-] HelixDab2@lemm.ee 3 points 2 weeks ago

My problem is the up-front cost. I need to insulate walls (...goddamn lack of building codes in my area...), replace at least one window, insulate the rim joists, etc., and I'm still looking at a cost of around $15,000 for what really isn't a very large house. Sure, there are federal and state rebates, and that's important to me. But right now I heat primarily with wood, and cool mostly with fans and sweat. If I had to use propane alone for heating, it would cost me about $2250/year; if electricity was free--it's not--it would take me about 7 years to capitalize the cost.

But I still want to switch, because I'd rather heat with electricity than with a wood stove.

[-] MintyAnt@lemmy.world 4 points 2 weeks ago

Always start with insulation, then upgrade your heating/cooling

[-] HelixDab2@lemm.ee 3 points 2 weeks ago

Trust me when I say that, due to the nature of the building, that's going to be a large, unpleasant project. I know I need to do it, but I a so not looking forward to it.

[-] MintyAnt@lemmy.world 1 points 2 weeks ago

Might be good to find a thermal imaging company and get their take on the work. Figure out what's actually terrible and what might not be as bad

[-] HelixDab2@lemm.ee 2 points 2 weeks ago

I have looked into energy audits, yes.

My house has clapboards on the upper level, but no cladding; the clapboards are attached directly to the studs, without even tar paper. The inside walls are rough wooden panels. There's fiberglass batts in between the studs. But because it's all rough wood, there are a lot of air leaks. On windy ways, you can often feel a slight breeze inside. I know that it needs to be fixed, and I know how to fix it--I think--but it will require removing all of the interior paneling, removing the bats, and then filling the voids with XPS foam and 'caulking' the foam with spray foam.

It was built long before there were building codes in the area.

[-] Itsamelemmy@lemmy.zip 2 points 2 weeks ago

I just got one installed last week. Just under 15k as the list price, but all the rebates available got it to $5200 out of pocket. I was already using an electric furnace though, so this should just be straight savings going forward.

[-] HelixDab2@lemm.ee 1 points 2 weeks ago

Good luck with it! Since we haven't been using anything other than a single window a/c unit on the very hottest summer nights, I expect that it will cost us more. But we'll still be greener than we could be otherwise.

[-] LordKitsuna@lemmy.world 2 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

If you're willing to do it yourself you can go with the brand Mr DIY, they have precharged lines with quick connects and you can get the entire kit for around $5,000 which is much easier to stomach. Technically it would be less because it would still be eligible for any tax credits your power company or state may have and I believe there's a federal tax credit for heat pumps now?

[-] HelixDab2@lemm.ee 1 points 2 weeks ago

I think we were most inclined to go with a Mitsubishi-Trane system. One of the biggest costs ends up being insulating all of the existing ducts; the basement is unheated, so the ducts need to be insulated to prevent condensation. I've tried contacting distributors of insulation products, and they don't seem to even want to get back to me, as an end user, which is annoying.

[-] Wanderer@lemm.ee 1 points 2 weeks ago

I think copying the whole article is not allowed because wired could use it as a way to shut down Lemmy for copyright infringement.

[-] olutukko@lemmy.world 2 points 2 weeks ago

I think that would only applu to this certain instance. not lemmy as whole

[-] jaschen@lemm.ee 1 points 2 weeks ago

I spent almost 25k having one installed in my condo. It's not cheap but it's worth it.

[-] LordKitsuna@lemmy.world 2 points 2 weeks ago

For those of you who can't afford to have a professionally installed there is a brand called Mr DIY that sells complete kits with pre-charged quick connect lines for around $5,000 (can be both more or less depending on how many rooms you want heated/cooled) . They are very very easy to install, the worst you might need professionally is an electrician to set up a new circuit for you to power it if you're not comfortable doing that yourself

[-] jaschen@lemm.ee 3 points 2 weeks ago

You also have to get it permitted and approved in some cities.

[-] qjkxbmwvz@startrek.website 1 points 2 weeks ago

But they're not necessarily cheaper to operate. The efficiency gains aren't enough to offset the high price of electricity compared to gas, at least where I am (California/PG&E).

Not a problem for many people, but for those on the edge, a more expensive heating bill is a problem.

Disclaimer is that I don't know if rebates/discounts for using electric heating would make it cheaper than gas, but talking to friends, it ends up being slightly more expensive to keep the house warm.

this post was submitted on 07 May 2024
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