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One of the founders of DeepMind thinks there's a 50% probability there will be AGI by 2028.
(www.dwarkeshpatel.com)
This is a fascinating read. It was interesting to hear him say that all of the current problems with factuality and hallucinations are solvable, and he sees the route to doing that.
He was less convincing in discussing how to constrain the power of an AGI that is smarter than us. His solution is to make sure it understands ethics. That idea has lots of weaknesses, and the guy interviewing pressed him on that a few times, and he seemed to fudge his responses.
It's interesting to look at people's past predictions. He said he predicted the 2028 date for AGI back in 2008. Not only was he able to say it hasn't changed, but he was also able to point out everything he expected has gone to schedule in the 2008-2023 timeframe. It makes that 2028 prediction more credible.