I wish I had a friend who could just be there while I tried to get it set up. Honestly, I'd peroxide pizza, beer, and video games just so I don't collapse in a mess of confusion and self doubt when something goes wrong. I don't mind doing the work, but I don't know if I have the patience to figure it all out.
TempermentalAnomaly
joined 1 year ago
I'm not much of wine drinker myself, but I once did a chef menu with the wine pairing. Every two dishes, they'd bring out a new glass of wine. It was kind blowing how the would taste one way with the first dish and a completely different way with the second dish. I'm not sure I can tell the difference between a $12 bottle and $40 bottle, but in that one meal i understood two things: first, if you know what your doing, wine and food pairings can be magical and, second, I don't know what I'm doing.
Many down ballot positions are unopposed where I live. Of course, I think you only are talking about national seats.
The utility, then, is to note that safe seats operate similarly to unopposed seats especially when it comes to funding by national parties.
Sounds like you had a wonderful patient who was grateful for you doing your craft. Do a compliment sandwich, but do it sincerely.
Complement Boundary Complement
"Oh my. I'm flattered. Thank you, but I'm not comfortable with that right now. You've been a wonderful patient and I enjoyed working with you too."
This is just an example of the compliment sandwich structure and you should adjust the wording to serve you.
As for the phone number, just tell him that you were doing your job and seeing him better is all the reward you need. Again, adjust the wording for your truth.
Nixon was for stronger gun control even supporting a total handgun ban. Similarly Regan was as governor. Row v. Wade was largely seen as sensible by Republicans when it was determined. Nixon also signed OSHA.
The author's photo is of her holding two oranges in one hand. I have unexpected joy from this.
There's a lot of assumptions here.
Significant isn't specific. A specific number would give us an idea if the rate of crime committed by undocumented persons exceeds, meets, or continues to fall short of the other two groups.
Next, you're assuming that the victims of violent crimes by undocumented workers are other undocumented workers. This, to some degree makes sense. But it's not 100%.
Next, poverty in of itself isn't sufficient to predict rates of crime. Crime is a choice taken when there aren't other avenues available. Arguably, the reasons undocumented peoples move here is because their prospects are better here. That is to say, they chose to leave their people to come here instead of staying there and commiting crime. This isn't, obviously, specific. But it's a factor you didn't consider.
Finally, what do you mean by class? There's a lot of usages.
This isn't an argument to say you are wrong. It's an argument that you have been specific or open to other factors.
Here's a recent poll where Michele Obama came out more than two margins of errors of ahead of Trump.
Also, here's a pile of salt.
It is most certainly not a small sample size. It's what allows for a margin of error of ±3.5%* at the 95% confidence level. Here's a graph of the margin of error vs sample size for 95% confidence interval.
With an 11 point margin, there's a clear separation of the upper limit bar for Trump and lower limit bar for Obama. For a single poll, assuming the rest of it was well designed and executed, this is an important spread. And the reasons are obvious if you look at the report. She's able to get 10% more Democratic support and 20% more independent voter support.
Ipsos is a high quality polling company. They don't make rookie mistakes like sample size. There may be other reasons beyond my reasoning that make this a bad use of polling, but sample size is not it.
* The source incorrectly reported the margin of error for the full survey, both registered and unregistered participants.
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/14210696
The two percentage points of vote share that Mr Trump has gained since 2020 come from three sources. The largest group is people who supported Mr Biden last time, but are now undecided, backing minor candidates or not planning to vote, who outnumber those making the same shift from Mr Trump’s camp. These voters account for 0.9 points of Mr Trump’s two-point improvement. Undecided former Biden voters are slightly younger, more likely to be black or female and less likely to have attended college than repeat Biden voters.
Mr Trump also enjoys an edge among people entering or returning to the major-party electorate. The share who say they did not vote for either him or Mr Biden in 2020 but have now settled on Mr Trump is 3.7%, slightly above the 3.3% who are choosing Mr Biden. This group adds another 0.3 of a point to Mr Trump’s tally.
The final group, swing voters, is the smallest but also the most impactful. Because people who flip between the two major-party candidates both subtract a vote from one side and add one to the other, they matter twice as much as do those who switch between a candidate and not voting at all. Such voters are rare—just 3% of respondents fall into this category—but Mr Trump is winning two-thirds of them. With 2% of participants shifting from Mr Biden to Mr Trump versus just 1% doing the opposite, swing voters contribute a full percentage point to Mr Trump’s two-way vote share.
The most intriguing pattern in YouGov’s data, however, is probably an equally powerful factor that has nothing to do with ideology. Compared with committed partisans, swing voters are vastly more likely to have children aged under 18: 47% of those flipping from Mr Biden to Mr Trump and 40% of those switching the other way are currently raising children, compared with 22% of repeat Biden voters and 19% of consistent Trump ones. And once the effects of race and parenthood are combined, the disparities are striking.
The two percentage points of vote share that Mr Trump has gained since 2020 come from three sources. The largest group is people who supported Mr Biden last time, but are now undecided, backing minor candidates or not planning to vote, who outnumber those making the same shift from Mr Trump’s camp. These voters account for 0.9 points of Mr Trump’s two-point improvement. Undecided former Biden voters are slightly younger, more likely to be black or female and less likely to have attended college than repeat Biden voters.
Mr Trump also enjoys an edge among people entering or returning to the major-party electorate. The share who say they did not vote for either him or Mr Biden in 2020 but have now settled on Mr Trump is 3.7%, slightly above the 3.3% who are choosing Mr Biden. This group adds another 0.3 of a point to Mr Trump’s tally.
The final group, swing voters, is the smallest but also the most impactful. Because people who flip between the two major-party candidates both subtract a vote from one side and add one to the other, they matter twice as much as do those who switch between a candidate and not voting at all. Such voters are rare—just 3% of respondents fall into this category—but Mr Trump is winning two-thirds of them. With 2% of participants shifting from Mr Biden to Mr Trump versus just 1% doing the opposite, swing voters contribute a full percentage point to Mr Trump’s two-way vote share.
The most intriguing pattern in YouGov’s data, however, is probably an equally powerful factor that has nothing to do with ideology. Compared with committed partisans, swing voters are vastly more likely to have children aged under 18: 47% of those flipping from Mr Biden to Mr Trump and 40% of those switching the other way are currently raising children, compared with 22% of repeat Biden voters and 19% of consistent Trump ones. And once the effects of race and parenthood are combined, the disparities are striking.
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The polls are suggesting a huge shift in the electorate. Are they right? | Politico
(www.politico.com)
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The wrecking of Gaza’s health system goes beyond its hospitals - The Economist
(www.economist.com)
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I'm trying to find studied that show it isn't statistically different from a placebo, but doesn't seem to be well studied. Can anyone share some well designed studies?