Lugh

joined 2 years ago
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Top of the list of fastest growing cities is Gwagwalada in Nigeria, a place I'd never heard of. It's in Nigeria's Federal Capital Territory, 45 kilometers southwest of Nigeria's capital city, Abuja, and its growth is related to that proximity.

China and Africa are becoming ever more closely bound. China is now the single largest financier of African infrastructure. China is almost every single African country's top trading partner. An estimated 1-2 million Chinese people have moved to Africa. Chinese technology is already shaping the African continent, with solar panels and smartphones leading imports. No doubt Chinese AI & Chinese robotics will be a big part of Africa's future, too.

10 fastest growing cities in the world (2025 population trends)

 

I read a lot of biographies. They're a genre of writing that relies heavily on people's former habit of letter writing. For many people from the 19th and 20th centuries, much of what we know about their lives comes from their preserved letters. Letter writing is now becoming extinct, and with it that literary tradition. If you can't even post a letter, surely it's the very end of it.

Yes, future biography writers will have social media posts and online writing to mine for material. There's vastly more of it than the preserved letters in the world's libraries. But there's an intimacy about letters that online writing rarely has.

Other countries will now be facing the decision Denmark has just made. If delivering letters is a permanent loss-making venture, when do you pull the plug?

Denmark to shutdown post office, end delivery of physical mails

 

It seems America and the rest of the world may look very different in the 2030s.

The rest of the world living in the future with EVs and cheap renewable energy. America in some strange steampunk version of the future, where energy is expensive, everyone still drives huge gasoline cars, and power stations still belch smoke from coal.

Cheap Chinese EVs that cost <$20k and run on cheap renewable electricity, frequently from home solar, will likely be rapidly becoming the global norm in the 2030s. I wonder if the fossil fuel industry has home solar in its sights, too? They have all the American politicians in their pockets that they need to ban it in the US.

Trump says U.S. will not approve solar or wind power projects

Trump administration halts work on an almost-finished wind farm

 

"These days, when entrepreneurs pitch at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), a major Silicon Valley venture-capital firm, there’s a high chance their startups are running on Chinese models. “I’d say there’s an 80% chance they’re using a Chinese open-source model,” notes Martin Casado, a partner at a16z."

If the AI bubble is going to burst, you've got to wonder how many of today's AI stars like OpenAI will survive it. Are they already yesterday's people, and the future is leaner, cheaper, and built on free open-source AI? If 80% of new American start-ups are choosing Chinese open-source, you can bet that figure rises to near 100% for the rest of the world.

Silicon Valley thought they were soon going to get an AI unicorn, another world-conquering Google or Meta. Maybe, one day. For now, it looks like Chinese Open-Source AI may be the model about to spread all over the world.

China is quietly upstaging America with its open models

 

Numerous studies in the past two years show that CRISPR-based interventions can correct mutations and restore cellular and behavioral function in mouse models of brain diseases. Diseases caused by mutations in genes associated with brain functions - like alternating hemiplegia of childhood (AHC), Huntington’s disease, and Friedreich’s ataxia- have seen major improvements in mice that have had their brains gene edited.

This raises a fascinating possibility - what if this gene editing could go beyond correcting diseases? What if you could get an IQ boost of 20-30 points? For obvious reasons, this would be huge for people on a personal level, but it would also have political effects. What would society be like if everyone were 30 IQ points smarter?

Brain editing now ‘closer to reality’: the gene-altering tools tackling deadly disorders: Stunning results in mice herald gene-editing advances for neurological diseases.

 

I'd never heard of Graphene-Mediated Optical Stimulation before this. Basically, it takes advantage of graphene’s knack for turning light into tiny electrical nudges that neurons actually respond to. Since graphene is literally just a one-atom-thick sheet of carbon, it’s very good at absorbing light and then spitting out these subtle signals that coax neurons into growing, branching, and wiring themselves together. In the lab, this sped up the way brain organoids formed sturdy little networks.

They hooked one of these graphene-stimulated organoids up to a robot. When the robot ran into an obstacle, it shot a signal over to the organoid, which fired back a neural response in under 50 milliseconds that told the robot to change course.

These brain organoids would be a natural candidate for interfacing with our brain, as they're made from the same thing. It's interesting to wonder if we could fuse robotics extensions with our brains this way?

New Graphene Technology Matures Brain Organoids Faster, May Unlock Neurodegenerative Insights

 

New research pushes back the data of the earliest Last Universal Common Ancestor (LUCA) to 4.09–4.33 billion years ago, a mere few hundred million years after Earth formed. Furthermore, that life was complex too; perhaps having ~2,600 proteins and a primitive immune system. Implying it existed in a biological community (perhaps on another planet), and did not arise on Earth as an isolated primitive lifeform.

There's more support for the idea that microorganisms may be very widespread throughout the galaxy. Researchers now think there is a vast biome extending as far as 8km down from the Earth's surface. These microbes may have lifetimes of thousands or even millions of years, and don't need sunlight or oxygen.

This vastly expands the number and type of exoplanets that may harbor life, and this makes Panspermia via asteroid ejecta even more likely as an explanation for how life came to Earth.

One of the central assumptions of our current search for alien life is that if we find it, it must have independently arisen in that location. Even in places as nearby as Mars. Should we change our assumptions? Assume Mars did, and probably still does have life, and that we were both seeded from elsewhere?

Life happened fast It’s time to rethink how we study life’s origins. It emerged far earlier, and far quicker, than we once thought possible

The Pursuit of Life Where It Seems Unimaginable

 

China has now surpassed the US for the number of clinical trials per year, and they're 50-100% faster there, too. U.S. and other Western pharmaceutical firms increasingly license innovative drugs from China; In 2025, deals valued from China accounted for about one-third of big pharma licensing agreements.

The U.S. biotech ecosystem has long been driven by NIH-backed R&D, but that has recently been radically cut. Will this be another case where Trump delivers a win for China? Destroying something at home for right-wing ideological reasons, just to let China swoop in to collect the prize. In this case becoming number 1 in global pharmaceuticals?

Outside America, the rest of the world is a winner here. Chinese industrialisation is driving global deflation and cheaper goods in transport, energy, and computing. It will be great if we can add biotech and pharmaceuticals to that list.

China’s Biotech Is Cheaper and Faster

[–] Lugh 1 points 6 months ago

Interesting there's no mention of unemployment via AI/robotics in DW's reporting of this issue.

[–] Lugh 4 points 6 months ago

There are dozens of open-source robotics projects around the world, including another humanoid robot called Tiangong. Hugging Face's actions are significant because of the prominent role it plays among AI developers. It functions as a version of GitHub, but just for AI - except now it may do the same for robotics too. It has always been committed to open-source (its own tools are open-source).

That open-source AI has kept pace, and in some cases bettered, investor-funded AI has taken many by surprise. Could the same happen in robotics development?

More on Pollen's acquisition.

Hugging face lets the public use a lot of the AI tools it hosts.

[–] Lugh 6 points 6 months ago (1 children)

but this still makes me sad:

One piece of good news is that solar seems that it may be being adopted as a technology, on the familiar s-curve of technological adoption. So it may go from 6.9% to 50% much quicker than we expect.

[–] Lugh 1 points 6 months ago (1 children)

Well at least they are mental health workers, so they can deal with it better than most.

[–] Lugh 0 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (3 children)

That is a terrible guess, and it isn’t even remotely close on the scale of decades.

No. It's based on how technologies are adopted, which tends to follow an s-curve.

Level 4 self-driving cars are already on the road in China & the US.

[–] Lugh 1 points 6 months ago

Yes. The logic of al these changes with AI & robotics being able to do most work, is that some sort of socialism is the only economic system that will work in the future.

[–] Lugh 9 points 6 months ago (12 children)

I suspect from now on we will see more and more strikes and protests like these. I'd guess by 2030 or so they will be a widespread global phenomenon. By that point, self-driving cars will rapidly be replacing most driving jobs too.

Most of us instinctively feel sympathy with the striking workers - deep down we know AI/robots will be coming for our jobs one day too.

But there's a paradox here. AI tends towards what economists call zero marginal cost, in plain language - near free.

What if AI Doctors as good as humans were nearly free & every human on the planet had access to their expertise. Surely, that is something to go on strike for - not against.

[–] Lugh 1 points 6 months ago

Yep, destined to one day be a future RomCom meet cute cliché.

[–] Lugh 2 points 6 months ago

If you could easily identity all the ruthless sociopaths, there would be some people who'd think that was a great hiring tool for their businesses.

[–] Lugh -4 points 6 months ago (2 children)

I would be interested to hear your reasoning and facts to support this assertion.

[–] Lugh 3 points 6 months ago (1 children)

I wonder when someone is going to figure how to speed up domestication via gene editing. There's a huge untapped market for exotic pets that could be house trained.

[–] Lugh 3 points 6 months ago

He won’t be able to just take control of the Fed without Congress,

Perhaps, but they've abdicated responsibility on everything else so far. I understand that people have hope the normal times will resume, but autocracy has a trajectory. So far, almost nothing has stopped it in the US.

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