Lugh

joined 2 years ago
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The paradox of Europe's space efforts is that it has the money and technical expertise to be number 1, but is always playing runner-up, and is now third behind the US and China. ESA - Europe's equivalent of NASA & China's CNSA, has 23 member states - most of which have their own national space agencies too.

This fragmentation and diffusion has always been a huge problem, now ESA has another. NASA is abandoning it's biggest joint NASA/ESA project. The ill-fated SLS/Gateway/Artemis Moon landing program is up for the axe in the latest NASA budget. Taking its place (and money) will be plans to pivot to Mars, led by - you guessed it - a certain South African's space company.

Will ESA do something decisive as it readjusts? If past performance is any guide, don't hold your breath. Then again, maybe this time might be different.

 

This article gives details on the many shortcomings that make the 'golden dome' idea unworkable. These objections have been around since Ronald Reagan proposed the idea in the 1980's, and they are even more true today. The 'golden dome' proposal deals with ICBM-type missiles, but they are already out of date. The 'golden dome' proposal has even less chance against hypersonic missiles that travel at Mach 20.

Ask yourself a question - The $175 billion 'golden dome' idea requires 36,000 satellites. Is there a certain South African at the center of the US government who might be pushing this idea, because he's the man who'll get a lot of that $175 billion to supply & launch them?

 

"The new analysis for Carbon Brief shows that China’s emissions were down 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 and by 1% in the latest 12 months."

It's possible that this is a blip, and a rise could continue. China is still using plenty of fossil fuels and recently deployed a fleet of autonomous electric mining trucks at the Yimin open-pit coal mine in Inner Mongolia. Also, China is still behind on the 2030 C02 emissions targets it pledged under the Paris Agreement.

Still, renewables growth keeps making massive gains in China. In the first quarter of 2025, China installed a total of 74.33 GW of new wind and solar capacity, bringing the cumulative installed capacity for these two sources to 1,482 GW. That is greater than the total US electricity capacity from all sources, which is at 1,324 GW.

 

Guess what AI workers never need? High wages, health care, pension contributions, breaks or vacations.

Once corporations start seeing AI and humans as interchangeable workers - no surprises for which type they'll be trying to get rid of as soon as possible.

I hope we're going to see massive deflation in drug prices from all the cost savings, and bumper profits this will give them.

Why Moderna Merged Its Tech and HR Departments

archive.ph version of WSJ article

 

"According to the New York Federal Reserve, labor conditions for recent college graduates have “deteriorated noticeably” in the past few months, and the unemployment rate now stands at an unusually high 5.8 percent. Even newly minted M.B.A.s from elite programs are struggling to find work."

The NYFR says it doesn't know what is causing the decline, but many wonder if it's AI. In particular as AI is so good at doing the entry-level tasks college grads would be employed to do.

Humans are terrible about dealing with disaster, until the very last minute (Covid in March 2020 was a good illustration of this). However, they are often surprisingly good at 'keeping calm, and carrying on' when they are forced to act. March 2020 also illustrates this.

So far AI/robotics and job replacement is a topic our political class (and their inept economic advisors) have ignored - but for how much longer?

 

The 'Big 7' prop up the U.S. stock market, accounting for a third of its value. Their sky-high valuations rely on a 'growth' narrative—if that fades, their stocks could crash.

Google deliberately worsened search results to keep users viewing more ads, as recent research revealed. A WSJ investigation found Meta knowingly lets criminal advertisers flourish, fearing a stock drop if it cracks down.

Now, AI firms are the market's new darlings. Under similar pressure to deceive, what happens when they wield the most powerful tech ever?

[–] Lugh 9 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (3 children)

Will OpenAI ever make a dime in profit? At every turn, open-source matches it, but for free. It's competitors aren't fools, part of the push to open-source is to bleed out competitors. I'll be surprised if their isn't a major stock market correction during Trump's term. A lot of this AI investor money could go up in smoke.

[–] Lugh 33 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Banning gasoline cars isn't that radical a step for Norway - 90% of new cars sold there are already EVs. This also doesn't mean the disappearance of ICE cars from Norwegian roads, the old stock will have to gradually disappear as it ages out.

The EU (which Norway isn't in) has set 2035 as the date for banning the sale of new gasoline cars there. However, many think most car makers will have stopped selling them in Europe before that date. As their market share shrinks, it will become unprofitable to make them anymore.

[–] Lugh 4 points 10 months ago

It's interesting to wonder how many hitherto unseen patterns in science and nature AI will find.

[–] Lugh 4 points 10 months ago (1 children)

Human attention is a finite resource. There aren't enough people to be interested in all this AI auto generated slop. If anything a deluge of AI-generated slop will make people more interested in focusing on humans they find interesting.

[–] Lugh 10 points 10 months ago (8 children)

There's so much to legitimately worry about with AI, that we often lose sight of its potential good.

[–] Lugh 1 points 10 months ago

Building trustworthy AI won’t be easy, but it’s essential.

It doesn't seem a top priority for most of the people creating AI. I suspect we will mainly be learning from our mistakes here, after they've happened.

[–] Lugh 7 points 10 months ago (3 children)

These brain-computer interfaces are usually discussed in the context of disabled and paralyzed people,  but I wonder what they could do for regular people as well.  It's interesting here to see how quickly the brain adapts to brand-new sensory information from the computer interface,  it makes you wonder what new ways we could interact with computers that we haven't thought of.

[–] Lugh 3 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

Pony.ai will be operating robotaxis at the Hong Kong International Airport as shuttles for airport employees

Airport trips seem like perfect territory for level 4 self-driving vehicles. Many of the journeys to and from airports are from well established pickup and drop off points.

[–] Lugh 16 points 10 months ago (2 children)

It wasn't so long ago, when people tried to refute the argument that AI and robotics automation would lead to human workers being replaced, they'd say - don't worry the displaced humans can just learn to code. There will always be jobs there, right?

[–] Lugh 8 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

The fundamental problem is this: we tend to think about democracy as a phenomenon that depends on the knowledge and capacities of individual citizens, even though, like markets and bureaucracies, it is a profoundly collective enterprise......................Making individuals better at thinking and seeing the blind spots in their own individual reasoning will only go so far. What we need are better collective means of thinking.

I think there is a lot of validity to this way of looking at things. We need new types of institutions to deal with the 21st century information world. When it comes to politics and information, much of our ideas and models for organizing and thinking about things come from the 18th and 19th century.

[–] Lugh 5 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

OpenAI is on a treadmill. It has vast amounts of investor billions pouring into it and needs to show results. Meanwhile, open source AI is snapping at its heels in every direction. If it is true that it is holding back on AI agents out of caution, I'm pretty sure that won't last long.

[–] Lugh 1 points 10 months ago

Interesting to see that the G1 is still aimed at developers and is not for mass market consumers. I wonder how long it will be before there is a layer of AI software on top of what it currently is, that means it can be more widely sold.

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