Lugh

joined 2 years ago
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Switching Chinese factory jobs to America has been in the news a lot lately. Many people have pointed out it doesn't make much sense. Do Americans really want sweatshop-wage jobs making sneakers?

Another reason it doesn't make sense is that China is dumping those jobs anyway - replacing the humans with robots. The numbers are startling. If the trends of the last ten years continue, China will be creating 1 million industrial robots by 2029. By 2032, it will be creating more industrial robots, than there were new human jobs in the US in 2024. Robots may even be adopted on an s-curve, and be adopted in far higher numbers sooner.

Where is this heading? Will the robots keep the aging Chinese population economically afloat? Will using humans in factories instead of robots in the US be seen as a noble alternative to the socialism of UBI?

Source: Rise of China's Robotics Industry: from Manufacturing Arms to Embodied AI

 

NASA's plans are up in the air once again. The latest plans, yet to be approved by Congress, seek to ditch the SLS/Artemis plans for the Moon, and instead focus on sending people to Mars. That suits SpaceX's agenda, and would send NASA's money their way.

This will make it certain the first human base on the Moon will be Chinese. That is planned for the early 2030's and in recent days the Chinese have spoken more about its location. They are mapping the lunar south pole for water, but still haven't found the ideal spot, but that the 2026 Chang'e-7 mission might narrow it down further.

 

Hollywood's love of dystopian sci-fi has a lot to answer for, as it has shaped many people's ideas about the future very negatively. One of the most persistent of those ideas is that robots will only be owned by the 1%, who will use them to subjugate everyone else.

Reality is shaping up to be different. Free, open-source AI is the equal of anything privately controlled. Robotics too looks like it is following a similar trajectory. The Berkeley Humanoid Lite is built with off-the-shelf and 3D-printed components and costs just $5,000.

Contrary to doomerist fantasies, with decentralized renewable energy, and open-source AI & robotics - it seems hard to believe the 1% will own everything in the future.

[–] Lugh 4 points 7 months ago

Thanks for the reply.

[–] Lugh 7 points 7 months ago (2 children)

Naive question probably - which of these platforms would get a new creator the biggest audience?

[–] Lugh 6 points 7 months ago

The new US administration has made the world more dangerous. The ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians and war with Iran both threaten to escalate to a wider Middle East war.

[–] Lugh 5 points 7 months ago (1 children)

At present, the only available treatments for snakebites consist of polyclonal antibodies derived from the plasma of immunized animals, which have high cost and limited efficacy against 3FTxs5

Huge swathes of the world, especially India and countries in Africa, don't have access to high cost medical treatments.

[–] Lugh 16 points 7 months ago

At least this should finally put the 'Chinese can't innovate, they can only copy' meme into retirement.

[–] Lugh 5 points 7 months ago (1 children)

Yes, & their embrace of the orange failed businessman will come back to bite them on the backside.

He's already handed China global leadership in the energy transition, likely the biggest industry in human history, that the Chinese will make trillion from in decades to come.

[–] Lugh 3 points 7 months ago (7 children)

They are:

I could easily believe its true, though if so, I'm puzzled by their tactics.

Open-sourcing like this seems profoundly decentralizing and democratizing, not tendencies I'd associate with the CCP.

[–] Lugh 4 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (13 children)

At this point I wonder is the Chinese government executing some strategy in the background. If they are, and its to weaken America's tech lead, it's working.

Then again, why open-source everything and give its power so freely to everyone? Many people would have thought hoarding power to try and be No 1, as the US is doing, is better game play.

[–] Lugh 18 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (1 children)

I'm glad this means AI's power will become more decentralized internationally. Who would have thought it was China responsible for that?

[–] Lugh 66 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (2 children)

DeepSeek buzz puts tech stocks on track for $1.2 trillion drop

Just a few months ago many American commenters thought their country was 'years ahead' of China when it came to AI dominance. That narrative has been blown out of the water.

[–] Lugh 2 points 7 months ago (2 children)

"For example, if you were to replace components made of titanium on a plane with this material, you would be looking at fuel savings of 80 liters per year for every kilogram of material you replace," adds Serles.

I'm impressed by two things here. That something so light could replace titanium, and that it was discovered by AI.

[–] Lugh 2 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

Zero / zero is mathematically undefined.

I should have been more accurate. What I meant was the economics term - zero marginal cost.

There's an excellent book by Jeremy Rifkin speculating on what an AI/robotics automation zero marginal cost society might be like.

The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism

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