If AI wasn't propping up the numbers, we'd be officially in a recession
this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2025
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Remember. AI doesn’t create value, it steals it from others.
In the stock market it does both!
Makes you wonder whether the calculations serve anyone other than the top 0.1%.
Their portfolios bring up the average for the US because some swinging dicks decided that a (temporarily) decisive strategic advantage in faster calculators makes the graph look "good."
Meanwhile, people are hungry, getting furloughed, evicted, bombed, arrested, bound, gagged, and shot in America. Democratic institutions, the fundamental raison d'être for the American experiment, are undermined, bulldozed, disregarded, or blown up.
That's fine, they say. That's who and what they VOTED for. That's the mandate, they say.
Horseshit, I say.
Surely the definition of 'recession' would just be changed again. Easier to move goal posts than to admit you lead the horse to a mirage.
Wikipedia says:
In the United States, a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The European Union has adopted a similar definition. In the United Kingdom and Canada, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.
So technically, looks like there isn't a recession. Though a huge chunk of US GDP is just imaginary and doesn't represent any value, so realistically probably yes.
Part of me wonders if it's a recession, or if the ultra rich have finally squeezed everyone to the point it feels like one.
I've made more money this year than I ever thought I would, like double the most my parents have ever made and yet it doesn't feel like I thought it would.
The question "are we in a recession??" always makes me think of the SNL at-home headache test commercial:
Same. Even adjusting for inflation, if I went back and told myself 10 years ago what I'd be earning in 2025, past me would think it's "buy-whatever-I-want-money." I can buy everything I need, but I never seem to have much left over.
Make it third. I'm currently earning what I thought would be my life goal.
I can't even afford to move out of my two-room apartment.
Part of me wonders if it’s a recession, or if the ultra rich have finally squeezed everyone to the point it feels like one
What's the difference?
The fuck do you do that generates money?
The US is not in a recession as of this posting date. I read something recently from Fidelity Investments that suggests that the US is heading toward a recession.
Your exact question was found on the Q&A page
Supporting evidence Key takeaways
-
The US economy continues to grow, although it is sending some mixed signals. -
Corporate earnings remain strong even as consumer expectations sag. -
US tariff policy remains uncertain, and much of the impact from tariff hikes is still ahead.
Additionally, you may find this page interesting. It charts the business cycle across countries and quarters. If you play with the selections, you'll see that countries' economies do not always progress forward, nor are the rates of change consistent, so the page is not a predictor of what's to come.
FWIW, a financial advisor that I know said that his company is recommending that their investors shift to a portfolio with more foreign investments.
If you did not include AI spending we would be in a recession. So for most regular working people 100% we are in recession. Shit is going to pop off when SNAP is allowed to run out.
there isn't technically a recession
And if the economy were shrinking, would the US government statisticians actually release reliable data that says so?
The numbers were always a little sketchy and politically filtered, but now you can't trust/use any information. The institutions are gone, political hacks are in charge and truth is dead.
Like a lot of good questions... "it depends".
Good read here!
https://fortune.com/2025/10/09/america-feels-recession-state-dependent-income-cohort-moody-zandi/
Some states, yes. Some, no.
Some states will get pushed to "Yes" if SNAP benefits are reduced or eliminated.
Just as an FYI, there is an organisation that declares recessions in the USA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Research?wprov=sfla1
And as soon as they do Trump will declare them traitors and demand the head is fired
No, no, they will be deported! shall we have a bingo card or something like this?
My bingo card mysteriously self-combusted & started a house fire.
And they're based in a blue state, so if they were to declare a recession, the Trump admin would just discredit them as fake news and "radical left" propaganda.
Anyone working there during the shutdown?
if you're a fed worker, i HOPE NOT. people are still earning enough in tech that they arnt worried about financies right now.
You mean, the ones who haven't been fired yet
I don't know if this link will work, but Moody's just released a statement that almost half of US states are in a recession. Closer Look on GPB had a Moody's economist on their podcast today:
Episode webpage: https://omny.fm/shows/closer-look-with-rose-scott/moodys-analytics-says-georgia-nearing-a-recession
Based on what I've been reading, it would be in a recession if not for the AI investment money flooding into the tech sector. Let's hope AI lives up to the hype, eh?
This has been called out as a bubble bigger than Too Big To Fail by everyone on every side of the political spectrum but ancaps.
I'd compare it to the dotcom bubble. A lot of companies are going to die by AI. A few will thrive.
ive seen a ton of startups on AI, and some are leaning heavily into it, both of these will be the first to go.
We will see, I suppose.
Depression
The recession started in 2019
Yes.
we are in a recession and knocking on the door of a 2nd great depression
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You have had an almost 20 years of recession since 2008. The global economy never recovered to the previous trend. So if you think things are getting bad and then worse, you are correct.
08 was never fully fixed, its only been delayed again. 1 of things that never recovered was jobs in many fields, i felt like alot of jobs for stem just wouldnt hire people at the low-levels anymore, they just steal peoples resume and use it to screen the rest out, probably looking for the people lucky enough to have 1-2 years of experience to exploit. plus in biotech there has been a silent push for women to be hired since they are surpassing men in biology degrees 60/40%, even in my university, the people in bio class/class labs were mostly women, and the male/female PI favored women in thier volunteer labs over men by alot.
It is in a recession and entering a depression. A very deep one.
Nope, the populace is under stupid strain, but the economy is just slow, not contracting.
Given everything that is going with AI and Trump though, it probably would be a good idea to be prepared for one hell of a recession next year.
if you remove the AI circular spending bubble, we are 100% in a recession already.
and that's if you trust the data, which arguably has been far too fucked with to be useful for years now.
Should be in freefall by next November. Good news for the midterms.. I guess.
There tends to be a political backlash after presidential turn over, all the added backlash on this mid term is going to be epic before even taking the economy into account.
republican made sure thier recent bills , the backlash would be recieved by the incoming democrats in the midterms and the next presidency. this is always how they get re-elected again. if republicans still remain the majority they are in deep trouble.
we will see once the holidays hit, and no new tourism is coming to the states that wasnt planned like a year in advance.
There's no real way to officially know anymore. Data is dead.
People around me have been saying it feels like the start of a depression, not just recession. Are those different?
The 2008 recession saw a GDP contraction of 4.3%. The Great Depression was 29%.
People are saying "depression" because we're facing many of the same issues as in October, 1929.
- Radical wealth disparity
- Monopolies
- Unregulated capitalism
- Grossly inflated stock market
- Incompetent Executive branch
- Massive tariff expansions
We are in deep shit. AI investment is the only thing keeping the economic numbers looking good, and that bubble is going to pop far harder than the dotcom crash. 7 companies hold 40% of the stock market's value (or is it S&P 500?) and everyone of them is all in on AI.
I expect a series of mini crashes where they halt trading to stave off panic. No idea how that plays IRL though, may be very wrong.
a recession means you might lose your job
a depression means you might lose everything
unless you own it, it can be taken from you in both scenarios.
When you say it like that and I think of my generation and younger that is stuck renting and student loans… maybe I don’t actually own much of anything and if this pattern continues for a long time I could lose everything? I wonder how many more are like me in the same boat. But yeah, for now, it’s not that severe. Thanks for the perspective and help.
@higgsboson@piefed.social up in here downvote bombing everyone alone
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