Technology

As someone who works in tech, I'm surprised it hasn't happened already.

Part of my job is to oversee and arrange in some capacity for licensing of digital products, especially office 365, and I can count the number of people who have a copilot subscription on one hand, out of nearly, if not more than 1000 users across various clients.

I know some are using competing products, mainly chat GPT, and I don't always have visibility to that, but still.... The rate of adoption and the speed at which all of this is being developed and invested into... Does not bode well.

"It is very hard to time a bubble," Prof Admati told me. "And you can't say with certainty you were in one until after the bubble has burst."

No, we can definitely say with certainty right at this very moment that we're in a bubble.

Bad for them. Fewer ai buttons shoved to my face, higher availability of GPUs, those ain't bad for me.

The only way the AI bubble won't burst will be its complete integration into the military industrial complex and surveillance state, which is already underway.

AI traffic correlation for deanonymizing VPN users, ai tracking of all cellphone users across the US carrier networks, tracking of all people across all security cameras,...

This is just the beginning. And its all propped up by military spending from the US government.

"Data is the new oil" and all that? Is about undermining any 4th amendment right against unreasonable search and seizure. And AI is the latest (glitchy) tool to automate all of this.

But consumer facing side? Yeah, that's gonna burst.

someone on bsky posted that the gdp of the us only grew 0.1%without ai which basically means the entire us economy is dependent on ai which basically means the whole country is fucked

https://bsky.app/profile/realsporkman.bsky.social/post/3m2np4o5suc2w

So which stock do I short sell - Nvidia, Oracle, or Microsoft?

Well, how to buffer a few hundred billions going up in hot air?

I honestly think that each stock purchase should require an appropriate deposit.

Cannot be soon enough

I hope that at least some rich people lose it all.

I'll likely "lose" some money from my index tracker funds when it happens, but bring it on. I know billionaires will lose a lot more than I will.

Some people aren't mincing their words about it either, calling the deals "circular financing" or even "vendor financing" - where a company invests in or lends to its own customers so they can continue making purchases.

"Yes, the investment loans are unprecedented," Mr Altman told me on Monday.

But, he added, "it's also unprecedented for companies to be growing revenue this fast."

OpenAI's revenue is growing quickly, but it has never turned a profit.

All it takes is openAI or anthropic to run out of cash, then everyone providing them compute suddenly has giant power sucking white elephants that are basically useless for anything else (maybe crypto mining LMAO). And then they all stop buying more chips from Nvidia (you know, the company whose valuation is 8% of most index funds, and 80% of their revenue and all of their revenue growth over the past two years has been from data center sales).

Kinda crazy how 7 companies, all heavily invested in AI cloud compute, in one way or another, make up about a 1/3rd of the S&P 500.

I mean, good thing the AI bubble couldn’t possible pop any other bubbles. I mean, it’s not like nearly a decade of low interest rates could possibly have built any other bubbles in any other sort of asset markets.

I wonder what the next grift will be. Maybe big money billionaires will technofy religion.

Let it burn! But after the bubble bursts the next Question will be: These idiots, like Sam Altman, Dario Amodel, Zuckerberg and Elon musk, do they get a juicy government bailout at the expense of the public or do they get punished for their stupidity?

All it takes is one major player to want their payout.

One. I will bet you anything it will be a bank or hedge fund.

It's like the original internet bubble. The predictions are right, but not the timeline.

However, it's not decades but years until the predictions will be true.