Image is from Wikipedia's article on the war..
I've wanted to cover Myanmar for a while now but haven't had the needed knowledge to write much more than "This situation really sucks." After doing a little reading on the situation, I feel even more confused. A decent analogy is the Syrian Civil War, at least while Assad was in power (though it's still pretty true today) - many different opposition groups, some co-operating with the United States, others not. The main government supported partially by an anti-American superpower, but who could live with that government collapsing if there are deals to be made with the group coming into power. A conflict kept going and exploited at least partially by the United States and other imperial core powers, though with plenty of genuine domestic animosity and desires for political independence.
Recently, the Myanmar government - the mainstream media uses "junta", which is probably accurate despite the connotations - has promised elections at the end of 2025. This doesn't seem likely to happen, and even if it did, how this would work in a country as war-torn as Myanmar is unclear. The government is losing territory and soldiers at a quick pace; they now hold only 21% of the country, though that 21% does at least comprise many of the cities. It's difficult to get a handle on the number of people affected because civil wars and insurgencies have been ongoing in some shape or form for decades, but we're talking at least millions displaced and thousands of civilians killed.
Here's a comment by @TheGenderWitch@hexbear.net from fairly recently that covers the situation in Myanmar:
comment
The military government of Myanmar is losing to the Rebel Groups, and badly. https://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-s-rebels-closing-in-around-junta-into-fifth-year-of-civil-war-/7958145.html
somethings really afoot though, news about myanmar from western outlets and channels have suddenly all remembered myanmar exists and written quite a lot about them in the last few days. Its suspicious, it could be capitalists trying to signal their want for US involvement in the civil war. It could also be a targeted propaganda campaign already pre planned in order to make sure people are clued into the conflict.
I think this seems to be another Assad situation. The Military government is pretty unpopular domestically and is losing quite a bit of ground. I would be surprised if they lasted to 2027. Supplied by both Russia and China, theyve been able to keep some flow of weapons, but are suffering a lot from manpower issues. Conscription has been enacted, but conscripts are a poor replacement for trained soldiers. According to reports, they only hold about 21% of the land and are losing lots of territory. They also have extended their emergency rule for another 6 months, throwing doubt on the ability to follow through with their 2025 election. They've lost large amounts of territory, thousands of soldiers, and 2 regional commands. They're not dead yet though, as they have some ability to retake some territory and win some battles, but again 21%. Rebels currently are making steady progress towards the second largest city in the country.
while I don't like the rebels, they are western aligned, they have popular support and are allied to many of Myanmar's ethnic minority defence groups. Im wondering who really has the power in this situation though, since many of the gains seem to be made by the Ethnic armies, not the NUG. This revolutionary energy could be fueled to establish a socialist federation, but won't, and the popular revolutionary energy is fueled toward the NUG. It'll probably be another pro-west bourgeoisie democracy. It will probably then turn against the ethnic rebels and we'll end up basically where myanmar was pre coup. Probably will have a strong military influence on politics as well, since the rebel forces seem to be made up of officers and very little political groups. By then, people will be extremely tired of war and more likely to accept any conflict resolution than another civil war. In the midst of "It Happened" stands a stronger, unmovable "nothing ever happens". Would be neat if the Communist Party of Burma could somehow come out on top, but they have only around 1000 soldiers and don't control a large amount of territory.
China's interests in the region are still secure, but siding with the Junta is a bad idea, one I understand though. China doesn't want a western aligned power to take over a china aligned state, and is trying to make sure their economic investments in the area are protected and their mineral income is continued. They have deep ties with many Ethnic Minority states, especially on their border, and the NUG forces, mostly again to protect infrastructure investments and keep the minerals flowing. They might flip back to the NUG as the Junta starts collapsing over the next year or so, especially since the new US administration seems to be really cutting back on foreign aid. The General in charge of the rebel government forces complained quite a bit about how much aid ukraine got and how much he wanted that aid. He was basically begging for anti aircraft systems "like in ukraine" lol. China could definitely swoop in and back the rebels, which while hurting their reputation, is probably the best move long term. China's only interest is to keep Myanmar from being pro-west, keep control of Myanmar's mineral flow, and protect other investments in the area.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Commentary: China wants the private sector to drive growth again, but trust can’t be rebuilt overnight
the rest of the article
For those paying attention to the “two sessions” in China, it shouldn’t surprise you that private capital has indeed made a come back with Jack Ma’s reappearance a few weeks earlier.
I am increasingly losing faith in Xi’s ability to curb private capital. Since Li Qiang (Shanghai lib) became the Premier in early 2023, from abandoning Zero Covid policy to opening up China’s capital markets, all indications are pointing to what I have suspecting all these while, that the liberals have indeed succeeded in their coup and have been having the upper hand since 2023.
Perception is diverging from numbers and that’s bad. No idea how to correct this tbh
i think instead than a coup they are both being forced to cooperate after the new US aggression that even if started by Trump it will probably continue by his successor so they have to worked together for now
Honestly it’s more of a low consumption problem, which itself is driven by the falling property prices (70% of household wealth is in real estate) and the local government debt problem, and both factors are themselves underpinned by a massive wealth inequality problem that remains unresolved.
That’s why I keep saying that developing the domestic consumption market is the only way out to reduce reliance on trade (US trade aggression) and investment (dollar hegemony).
Falling property prices doesn't drive consumption, not doing minimal wage adjustment does. Oh look my sole apartment is two times more expensive, i can now buy a tv - sentences dreamed by utterly deranged. They should make "unskilled work" pay more, it would reduce education madness, flatten contradictions of self-important libs, increase consumption. Increase pay for hazardous chemicals handling as well etc. Classic socdem stuff (i'm not even implying they are communists, cause they aint)
In Chinese culture (for centuries in fact) there is a tradition/habit to save during times of uncertainty. People aren’t consuming because they save their money instead of spending them, in anticipation for the economic downturn e.g. being suddenly laid off over the next few months or a year. When there is no job security, people consume less.
This is very different from Western culture where there is not a customary habit to keep some savings for a rainy day and simply live from paycheck to paycheck.
Idk where you are getting your 'Western culture' anecdotes from, but around the Southwest and Midwest it is absolutely customary to attempt to have a rainy day fund that equates to around 3 months of rent and other expenses, no matter what the economic situation is. The problem is that usually people are having constant mini-crisises (car breaks down, kid gets sick, etc.) that constantly eat into it. We don't like living paycheck to paycheck, it just ends up that way because you HAVE to get your car fixed, there are no consistent buses, you HAVE to get your kid in to see a doctor and it will cost you 500 dollars, etc. Maybe shit is different on the coasts or in the South, but the concept of 'saving' is not unique to the Chinese
Has Jack Ma really reappeared? That sucks, one of the best things Xi did was getting Ma to shut up.
I mean, that's literally what Xi would want investors to think if he was a committed socialist using capitalism to build productive forces for eventual communism.
If China wants to survive climate change and the fall of the American empire, this kind of 80s bullshit neoclassical liberal utopianism needs to be purged from Chinese politics
Overwhelming price controls, capital controls, adjusted real wages, nationalization of any industry that even gives the appearance of suffering from an investor strike, forced employee buyouts of any enterprise that can't be bothered to actually do capitalism, debt jubilee for every local government and anyone who isn't a western educated liberal shithead
Honestly, price controls and stimulus checks would solve most of these supposed issues surrounding consumption, but the "confidence" fairy is still rattling around in the heads of Chinese liberals
It honestly makes me wonder what China's policies would look like today if Bo Xilai became General Secretary back in 2012 instead of Xi.
FYI, Bo Xilai was considered one of the frontrunners for the Presidency alongside Xi until he was purged just before Hu Jintao's term ended for alleged corruption.
Some would argue this was just a pretext to get rid of someone the more liberal factionalists in the party disliked (including Hu himself).
Bo was known for the "Chongqing model", which basically emphasized more wealth redistribution through expanded welfare policies and a revival of Mao-era "red culture".
He was also a leading masthead for the Chinese "new left" faction which I guess is the closest thing to a Neo-Maoist movement in the country.
Red social democracy is still social democracy.
I agree, but the model still represented a leftward shift from the standard Keynesian economics that China commits to.
Just so you know, the Chinese New Left generally opposes the pro-market policies that have crept into the government since the Reform and Opening Up era, but there is still a lot of debate as to how to move away from it.
Some are as you say "red social democrats" who want welfare reforms and more state control of the economy, others want more radical recollectivization and rapid liquidation of the big bourgeoisie.
Going to remind you how you claimed that helping NATO with colonial and capitalist exploitation of the world, sabotaging the USSR and anti-colonial movements of the world, embedding the PRC into the colonial and capitalist system run by NATO and making it unwilling or unable to take action against NATO in the future, and trading out such things as guaranteed housing for the short-term gains in the form of foreign investment as some kind of a 5D chess long-term plan that will totally benefit communist movements of the world.
Still hope that the PRC at least lessens the horrors that NATO has been inflicting on the world, but the claim that destroying the USSR (which came with millions of deaths across the globe, immiseration many more, and left anti-colonial movements without the support from the Warsaw Pact) was somehow good for the world was vile.
China was acting in self defense, to be fair. The USSR was allying with Vietnam to surround China from both directions. Deng (actually, Mao already decided long ago) had to ally with the US to crush both of them.
Self-defence from what? In what way were the USSR and Vietnam threats to the PRC?
Are you a national chauvinist and not a communist?
Im just approaching this from the chinese perspective, not that i necessarily agree with it.
The Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 and the proclamation of the Brezhnev Doctrine sent alarm bells ringing in China. In the eyes of the Chinese the Soviet Union was now claiming they had the right to intervene in any communist country not following its brand of Marxism-Leninism. To China’s leaders, this was a clear threat directed against them. Especially after since relations were already sour after the late 50s and Kruschev’s de-stalinization that was openly opposed both domesticaly and in the communist world stage by Mao. Party under Kruschev already looked down on the chinese communists and held an elitist view of their leading and deciding role on the world stage. Even under Stalin stuff were complicated tho easily better. A further complication was the Cultural Revolution in China. With its (correct) critique of Soviet ‘revisionism’, the mass movement had flamed anti-Soviet system sentiments among the Chinese leadership and populace.
For a specific example ,in consideration of the above factors, Mao and other Chinese leaders ordered the People’s Liberation Army to double down on their presence on the disputed Zhenbao Island and in the general borders, with small, india-china style, cross border clashes started happening. The Soviets struck back by launching an ambush against a Chinese border patrol in Xinjiang. Chinese intent was to just give a warning to the Soviet Union that they cant and shouldnt try to have direct influence over the PRC. Trying to gain some respect through strength. That they werent to be what countries of the eastern bloc were in relation to the USSR, and not to provoke a general war. The chinese revolution was largely one of anti colonial national liberation after all and the scars and fears of foreign influence run deep. Thus, Chinese leaders were shocked when news reached them of Soviet military, and more ominously, nuclear build-up…It seems that there was genuine discussion among revisionist Soviet military and political leadership of a nuclear strike to china .As Soviet archives on events in 1969 remain closed, historians can only rely on testimonies from Soviet officials. The Soviet diplomat Arkady Shevchenko claimed:
Senior Counselor to the USSR United Nations Delegation, Valentin Karymov, stated that every kind of contingency plan was considered, including preventive strikes. Lev Deluisin, a China specialist in the Foreign Ministry, had this to say:
Mao and the Chinese leaders were horrified. In August, the war scare in China reached its fever pitch. On 27 August, the CPC Central Committee issued an urgent order for the large-scale evacuation of Chinese population and main industries from big cities, while calling upon workers and residents in big cities to begin digging air-raid shelters and stockpiling everyday materials to prepare for a nuclear strike. On 28 August, an urgent mobilisation order was issued to China’s border provinces and regions. Party committees, government agencies, military commands, and ordinary citizens in provinces adjacent to the USSR were urged to be prepared for a large-scale Soviet surprise attack, while PLA forces along the Sino-Soviet border entered an emergency status of combat readiness.
Both sides recognised that drastic action was needed to stop escalation. This was achieved in a meeting at Beijing airport between Chinese Premier Zhou En-lai and Soviet Foreign Minister Kosygin on 11 September. This meeting effectively ended the phase of military build-up between the USSR and China, although the rattled Chinese leadership continued to issue emergency orders until mid-October 1969. It was in this atmosphere of fear that Mao started to see the USSR as China’s “main enemy”, and the seeds of a Sino-American rapprochement were planted.
This is major an example of the context behind china wanting to do away with soviet influence anywhere near them and basicaly deciding to be nega-USSR in their foreign policy and lliances. Tho there are other similarly important factors