geikei

https://asiatimes.com/2025/04/michael-pettis-misleading-the-american-zeitgeist-on-china/

Great and quite funny Pettis-Trump Admin related article that droped yesterday. Author is a chinese National that apparently has had a pretty long and important career in US economic deep state instruments and funds. Now he mostly writes (correct) china glaze articles and shits on Pettis and Co. on twitter comments.

Singapore’s ex-foreign minister Kishore Mahbubani publicly stated that Fukuyama’s book gave America collective brain damage.

lmao

Greek here. First of all dont take any information from non Greek non leftist twitter accounts cause it will cause disastrous confusion.

They are a purely opportunistic, leader centered party with no platform, no program and no organization. Laughable to even call them left. Led by a former Syriza politician. They were just promoted and pushed massively by the media as the non antisystemic opposition to the ruling party on the heels of the massive anti government sentiment and rage coming from the Tempi train disaster and the entire saga of corruption and criminality that included, successful piggybacking that public discontent. At the same time there was a big collapse of syriza through the last year. So them just yelling the loudest, taking whatever populist position is possible at every issue and being given pr constantly by the media and having large amounts of voters from left populist spaces available along with apolitic people that eat the narrative the media feeds them and pick "whoever tells it like it is" led to that increase.

A total unserious opportunistic mess of a party that is doomed to not exist in 5-10 years time and will be sure to lose against the ruling government , given life by how desperate and given up people are and through the machinations of maybe the most corrupt media and political environment in the EU

Chinese Money Supply Report for March seems pretty strong after credit being anemic last year so good signs for the economy and demand outlooks i guess. And even less pressure regarding the trade war.

M2 money supply +7.0% y/y; Est. +6.1%;

M1 money supply +1.6% y/y; Est. +0.3%;

M0 money supply +11.5% y/y; Prev. +9.7%;

Aggregate financing 5.9 trillion yuan, Prev. 2.23;

New yuan loans 2.23 trillion yuan, Prev. 0.74.

Problem with credit in the last couple of years and especially last year is that since forever land sales were critical to the credit formation process because they drove the leveraged generation of loans through a number of asset collateralization processes. This is where the money for all other local economic activities came from. But that wasnt viable anymore so one of the central sturctual tranformations of the Chinese economy is to delink credit generation from land sales and towards more mature financial insturments, and that cant be seperated from the general crack down of real estate speculation and deflating that bubble. So especially during last year the "fountainhead" for the credit cycle was locked up because of the land finance wind down. Credit going back to normal seems to indicate there has been substantial progress in that aspect and maybe the economy is beyond the more shaky phase.

Mechanically, the credit impulse drives the demand cycle, not vice versa. Availability of money is what determines demand. Demand does not determine availability of money. So demand problems were in large part downstream of that. Reticence from households to spend due to property value deflation was only a secondary problem. The primary problem was squeezed incomes and business revenue from a slow moving liquidity lockup.

Maybe im naive but the Trump administration, despite being staffed to the brim with insane China hawks, folding on its "anti-china economic warfare" before even starting it can be spinned into a more optimistic view on the prospects of hot US-China war. The murikans dont seem to have it in them. With the first sign of things getting tough, the US folded like a cheap tent. Just the prospect of things going to shit was enough. No prices have increased, nobody lost their job, nobody has been deprived of anything real. Some numbers on screens went up or down and the powers that be forced Trump’s hand. Even if instead of chaotic and incompetent it was some calculated and competent plan for a US-China clash, at some point most of these pressures and prospects would have arisen all the same and at the end of the day it wouldnt have much better chances to win against China. Will they really decide to destroy everything in a nuclear holocaust when the decision for a hot war is there when they couldnt even let the bond market freak out for more than 5 days ? Just as them losing the trade war (or at least not having the capacity to execute it without country breaking consequences) became obvious within days, the fact that they would lose any war close to China shores in 2028 or whenever will also sink in. Especially with the trajectory of both countries. It may still be possible to sustain that delusion in the big 2025 and rig war games to barely tie the engagement but its rapidly becoming less possible, especially after this whole debacle conlcudes

Will probably elaborate later but China can absolutely afford to lose the US market much more so than the opposite. And they are well prepared and equiped to handle that. With some economic pain but not nearly economy or country breaking, hell not even near recession territory

Since as far as i can tell China is still not selling UST and is holding it for the right momment, what if the chinese "plan" if all this continues is to wait as other UST holders keep this yield pressure on the bond market (since this situation continues pressuring asian-euro UST holding hedgefounds and BoJ given their currency and monetary state) then once the Fed is forced to do QE, China dumbs and exits USD. Inflation & rates would explode/ USD would devalue. US may not pay up or impose capital controls, but that means USD will lose GRC status

Im early on on my Mandarin journey but holy fuck is Mao accent thick as shit to the point of being almost unintelligible. Do modern Chinese understand everything he says without subs ?

Idk what to think but there are some utterly apocalyptic ideas floating from and around the administration and the surrounding hack economist and advisor sphere and they even get credible coverage and op-eds in mainstream financial publications and media in the last weeks. Especialy if things detariorate debt parameter wise , there is a Fed-administration crisis and/or the less insane Miran/Bessent plans A/B dont work or even have time to work. Stuff like the administration trying to unilateraly turn all US government bonds into 100 year bonds or taxing capital flows/capital controls. Can they be that suicidal towards the dollar hegemony?

And after all this the bond market is still doing its thing. 10 year yields up again and over 4.3%. Really started to set in on what trade war with China actualy means and the countries/investors remain shaky on if us dept is worth it. Maybe Trump did actualy break something

and as it seems Japan did most of the selling lmao. Even if they had to for their own domestic monetary and economic reasons given the situation its funny if Trump got fucked because a vassal fucked him over to save its skin. A positive thing really

its not out of the question that the coordinated Japan-Korea-China response to tarrifs that was talked about was true and it was about strategicaly selling UST, fucking up the bond market and spooking Trump into caving