this post was submitted on 07 Apr 2025
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Image is allegedly of the note Trump wrote while editing a speech while on the way back from the G20 summit.


The top Russian-Chinese agent, Donald Trump, has decided that the pace of dedollarization and the decline of American financial hegemony is going too slowly. He has therefore decided to put tariffs on everybody; from America's largest trading partners to uninhabited islands. In the process, he is trying to create an autarkic America. Jokes aside, interpretation and analysis of this has ranged across a wide spectrum. I think we can broadly agree that the most idiotic are the "true believers"; those that actually believe Trump's every word, and that this will somehow bring back American manufacturing and whatever other inane promises he has made.

However, there is a much more interesting debate. The first camp are those who believe Trump is acting as an inadvertent accelerationist due to his lack of understanding about how the world economy and dollar hegemony functions (and that this will subsequently ensure that countries flock to China instead). The second camp are those who believe that Trump does know what he's doing, at least to a certain extent, and that the effective result of this period of madness will be countries kowtowing to the United States; renegotiating trade deals to be even more in favor of the US in order to get tariffs reduced. There's even a yet more cynical camp who believes that in fact, this entire trade war is just theater for further national wealth redistributions from poor to rich; that all these monumental international trade wars are more of a sideshow. To quote the linked article: "[...] out of the mountain of tariffs that threaten to turn into a global trade war will emerge the mouse of further tax cuts."

I'm not embarrassed to admit that I have absolutely no idea which one of these is the closest model to reality. We're in new economic and political ground, and even if the tariffs are quickly renegotiated and/or dropped, the impacts will continue to reverberate around the world for years. I'm sure we'll debate this for months to come here, though!


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] MelianPretext@lemmygrad.ml 115 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago) (23 children)

It's pretty wild that the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs is quoting Mao to hit back at the US tariffs. It really underscores what a huge mistake it was when Khrushchev, that "poison dwarf skinhead fuck" tore down Stalin's legacy. You can almost hear all the Western "Sinologist" academics losing their minds right now, shouting, "No, you can’t quote Mao! You’re supposed to be just as ashamed of him as we made the Soviets feel about Stalin! Mao’s supposed to be an ideological weapon we use against you, not something you wield against us! Are all my Ivy League/Oxbridge-published University Press anti-Mao books for nothing?"

[–] miz@hexbear.net 102 points 4 weeks ago (2 children)

Why did the Soviet Union disintegrate? Why did the Communist Party of the Soviet Union fall to pieces? An important reason is that in the ideological domain, competition is fierce! To completely repudiate the historical experience of the Soviet Union, to repudiate the history of the CPSU, to repudiate Lenin, to repudiate Stalin was to wreck chaos in Soviet ideology and engage in historical nihilism. It caused Party organizations at all levels to have barely any function whatsoever. It robbed the Party of its leadership of the military. In the end the CPSU—as great a Party as it was—scattered like a flock of frightened beasts! The Soviet Union—as great a country as it was—shattered into a dozen pieces. This is a lesson from the past!

Xi Jinping, 2013

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[–] xiaohongshu2@hexbear.net 94 points 3 weeks ago (11 children)

Excited and anxious at the same time for my trip on Sunday. Getting ready for a 6 hour train ride to Ürümqi, which is the last station for that railway line. I have not seen my cousins in five years so it will be nice to see them all again. Wish me a safe journey please! If I have time to remember I will send a photo of the train.

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 89 points 4 weeks ago (2 children)

It probably won't pass the Senate directly, but just the fact in the this here tweet here is amazing

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[–] CthulhusIntern@hexbear.net 87 points 4 weeks ago (15 children)

Deng Xiaoping should really go down as one of the greatest political strategists in history.

"How do you do, fellow capitalists? Great day to exploit labor, amirite? You know, Chinese labor is quite cheap and plentiful, it would certainly be quite beneficial to us capitalists to exploit Chinese labor, right?"

A few decades later, most of the manufacturing is in China, China is now an economic powerhouse, and the dumbest world leader alive now wants to trade war China despite China obviously holding the cards in this scenario.

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[–] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 86 points 3 weeks ago (12 children)

https://xcancel.com/comradesipho/status/1910956026674778410

While many Chinese businesses are reeling from the trade war, Qi, the Maga merchandise maker, brushed off any suggestion his might suffer.

Trump supporters, he said, were willing to pay any price for items bearing the image of their beloved president - and US suppliers were making such a huge profit on them that they could afford to partially absorb the tariff impact.

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[–] TheModerateTankie@hexbear.net 86 points 4 weeks ago (6 children)

An important point for negotiators to remember when dealing with the US and these stupid tariffs:

the fucking replies... lmayo

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[–] sempersigh@hexbear.net 84 points 3 weeks ago (9 children)

lol admitting defeat already huh

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[–] notceps@hexbear.net 83 points 4 weeks ago

This will be my last post in the foreseeable time since I'll delete the account after I've posted this so I better make it count. Partly because things suck and partly because I decided to do more praxis instead of stewing online.

There's no reason to beat the dead horse that's tariffs and Trump so just a quick update, they had numbers and the numbers were really good like low inflation much lower than anticipated while Fed says 3% inflation for the year and that they don't see the need to do anything about it, meanwhile Bonds keep going up as people flee the US Dollar into gold, yen and swiss franc and other currencies like I said. US 10YR Bonds are going even higher as stock markets crap themselves as capital is fleeing the USA because shits fucked.

So I'll focus on my original hatred the germans. There's a new poll AfD is now highest polling but honestly who cares at this point, elections are still far away and there's honestly not much of a difference between CDU and AfD, it's like Pepsi and Coke, could be that they got boosted by all this fear and uncertainty could be a bigger incoming trend it's too early to tell but then again CDU is determined to go all in on what the AfD wants.

Anyways coalition time this is the new cabinet

Economy: CDU They just put a pretty incompetent guy in here who's micro fixation is getting rid of the VAT

Finance: SPD

Interior: Alexander Dobrindt CSU This guy is a massive piece of shit, racist, fascist you name it and a huge Zionist and someone that is in the pocket of car lobbies that talked about there being a 'Anti-Deportation-Industry' in germany, calling climate activists like Last Generation and XR, climate RAF something which considering he is bavarian and how criminal the police and state is there in its repression is really fucking bad.

Labour: SPD

Defence: SPD <- Guy under Scholz who is quite popular keeps his position

Infrastructure: CDU

Health: CDU

Ecology: CDU

Foreign: CDU

Family: CDU

Digital: CDU

Justice: SPD

Education: CSU <- Again these are like absolute freaks

Agricultural: CSU

Foreign Aid/Development: SPD

What did interest me about their new coalition, what they have in their 'Koalitionsvertrag', their coalition contract. So what they are going to focus on, it's a 146 page document that I've read. Well mostly the first couple of pages about how germany is under attack I skimmed because I don't care for the lamentations of the germans how things are totally unfair.

Economy

There is a ton of stuff here and most of it is really vague but the things they do mention over and over again are words like 'pragmatism, flexibility and de-regulation'. In short companies should be much less regulated and free to do whatever with a specific point being german car manufacturers who don't have to worry too much about CO2 emissions from their cars. They offset this by going 'Now you can get subsidies for EV vehicles going up to 100k' so germans will buy the newest electric Porsche or whatever.

One small thing they want to accomplish is bring down energy cost by 5 cent per kWh so that combined with less regulations might mean that they will ease sanctions on Russia to get that gas back and get cheap energy again.

Green Policies

This of course means when it comes to green policies they do a big talk about how they are comitted to goals and things, but they do not mention actual policies and my take on this is that they'll do fuck all regarding emissions and we might even see more rollbacks on those pesky laws that make polluting harmful because the overall message to me is 'All Hail the Economy' and they'll sacrifice the environment at its altar. Climate protections will get optimised aka they will get removed

National Security

Yeah guess what massive more surveillance and shit because of other countries waging 'hybrid warfare against the german state'. Now I know what you are thinking bombing Nordstream but no Germany has been in a sort of mania about Russia secretly bombing germany so that plus the 'antisemitism' will get used for a massive expansion of the surveillance state designating and deporting people for political activism which we already saw with Pro-Palestine EU-Citizens getting deported without any courts. And considering that there's even conspiracy theories that green activists are actually working for Putin there will be a massive political repression.

Social Policy

They'll reform the Bürgergeld aka former Hartz IV aka benefits will get slashed again. Oh also consumer protection is also gone.

Asylum Policy

I don't know what to tell you shit's fucked it'll be extremely fucked and will go against EU rights and law, International rights and laws, it'll be fucking bad.

This is mostly it there's other stuff but most is really vague and they've got some of the best german word people out there to write up gems like

Die klimapolitischen Sektorleitlinien werden wir flexibilisieren

Which I mean words have no meaning.

One thing that is notably absent is anything concerning combatting the rise of right-wing extremism, fascism, nazism. AfD is quite clearly a nazi party and they are permitted because well Germany is a nazi country but I think it should be repeated again that in this coalition that ran on 'we are going to stop the AfD'. They didn't put a single thing against the AfD.

Cheers notceps

[–] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 83 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago) (4 children)

Off to a good start today; China raises tariffs to 125% and have absolutely stonewalled the US while building up relationships with neighbors

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[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 83 points 3 weeks ago (9 children)

That Helicopter that went down with the "Spanish Tourists"

officer-down President and CEO of Siemens Spain and CEO of Siemens Mobility Southwest Europe from December 2022 until his death - Agustin Escobar

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agustin_Escobar

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemens_Mobility

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/hudson-river-helicopter-crash-live-35034553

Video of chopper going down.

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[–] xiaohongshu2@hexbear.net 82 points 4 weeks ago (9 children)
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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 80 points 4 weeks ago (18 children)

germans upon hearing they will be abolishing debt ceiling for military i-am-adolf-hitler

(i legit suspect its some kind of fiscal freaks movement from cdu to afd)

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[–] BountifulEggnog@hexbear.net 80 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (4 children)

Florida Teacher Loses Job Over Trans Student’s Name

The state is reviewing, and may rescind, her teaching certificate as a result.

First of a kind

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 80 points 3 weeks ago (5 children)

Freikorps, but more institutional. This is exactly what ICE was created for.

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[–] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 80 points 4 weeks ago (8 children)

https://xcancel.com/TheStalwart/status/1910690262176747760

BOOM:

*US TOLD CHINA TO REQUEST A XI-TRUMP CALL: CNN

Plz Xi, talk to me, plz. trump-anguish

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[–] miz@hexbear.net 80 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

Leaked Data Reveals Massive Israeli [sic] Campaign to Remove Pro-Palestine Posts on Facebook and Instagram | Drop Site News

A sweeping crackdown on posts on Instagram and Facebook that are critical of Israel [sic]—or even vaguely supportive of Palestinians—was directly orchestrated by the government of Israel [sic], according to internal Meta data obtained by Drop Site News. The data show that Meta has complied with 94% of takedown requests issued by Israel [sic] since October 7, 2023. Israel [sic] is the biggest originator of takedown requests globally by far, and Meta has followed suit—widening the net of posts it automatically removes, and creating what can be called the largest mass censorship operation in modern history.

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 78 points 3 weeks ago (4 children)

Clarification: China has stopped exports of almost all rare earth minerals and magnets, while they implement a new system that will prevent those minerals & magnets from reaching select US corporations, primarily US weapons manufacturers. Then, exports will resume.

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[–] vegeta1@hexbear.net 78 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

German reaction to Israel killing 15 red cross workers. "Footage brings up questions" Rotten country.

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[–] Kaputnik@hexbear.net 77 points 3 weeks ago (26 children)

Teen kills parents in attempt to gain funds to assassinate Trump. The teen was linked to the Order of Nine Angels, a neo-nazi/pedophile group originating in the UK. (Huge CW for looking up this group or any related groups for violence, pedophilia, animal cruelty, suicide)

Anyone have any thoughts on ONA or related groups like 764 and terrorgram? They feel very parapolitical to me in a strategy of tension kind of way. They've been linked to multiple terror attacks across Europe and the Americas, oftentimes carried out by people as young as 14. Right wing accelerationism seems to be on an upswing since COVID.

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[–] SexMachineStalin@hexbear.net 76 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

During a pro-Palestine demonstration at the National Assembly in Cape Town, activist and leader of Cape Town Intifada Uzair Mohamed was unlawfully detained by authorities, in a pattern that resembles similiar crackdowns in the US and Europe. Following immediate outrage of an illegal arrest, the charges were shifted to wearing a mask (which isn't illegal).

The Western Cape province is also headed by the pro-Western, liberal ~~Diet Apartheid~~ Democratic Alliance party and some of the most fanatical pro-piSSraeli entities such as the SAJBD draw large amount of support in Cape Town. A few days after the arrest, several Members of Parliament of both the Democratic Alliance and Patriotic Alliance also had made a trip to the Nazi state on the opposite end of the African continent.

The illegal arrest of Uzair Mohamed and attempts to suppress pro-Palestinian activism is largely only unique to Cape Town and are at most, infrequent in other major cities such as Johannesburg, Pretoria or Durban. - SAJFP, Salaamedia

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 76 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (11 children)

Looks like we have our first F-16 shot down by Russia in Ukraine now. Both Russian and Ukrainian sources (including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy) have confirmed that an F-16 was lost in combat.

Zelenskyy's statement

Xcancel mirror

Today, Captain Pavlo Ivanov was tragically killed during an F-16 combat mission. The guy was only 26. My condolences to his family and to all of Pavlo’s brothers-in-arms.

As I've already discussed, the early model F-16s Ukraine got are roughly equivalent to their MiG-29s in capability, only being superior in electronic countermeasures (ECM) and native support for American munitions. These early 4th generation aircraft aren't a match for Russian 4.5 generation fighters in a straight fight.

The Ukrainian F-16s have also been relying exclusively on this ECM (provided by the external AN/ALQ-131 external pod) and terrain masking (flying low close to the ground) to suppress Russian Ground Based Air Defense (GBAD), and flying with no anti radiation missiles for suppressing these defences. While a successful tactic up until now, it's highly risky. If the ECM fails or is bypassed, the pilot has no way to suppress any GBAD firing at them. If you look at the Russian air campaign in Ukraine, the escort fighters or strike fighters carrying out the strikes themselves (in Su-35s and Su-34s) are always carrying at least one Kh-31P anti radiation missile. In the US Navy air campaign against Yemen, the EA-18G Growlers are flying escort missions with at least two AGM-88E anti radiation missiles, along with highly advanced ECM that is much more sophisticated than the AN/ALQ-131.

I'm not a fighter pilot, but if I was and you told me I had to fly a strike mission in a block 20 F-16 for Ukraine in Sumy, where our high level friendly Ukrainian GBAD (in an S-300V battery) has been destroyed, and I'm going up against the best of the best Russian GBAD and combat air patrols in S-400 GBAD and Su-35 fighter jets, and I'll have to fly a nap of the earth/terrain masking flight path to the launch point for my bombs, with only an ECM pod and no anti radiation missiles to suppress the Russian GBAD, and that there would be no allied Ukrainian aircraft higher up with anti radiation missiles to act as an escort, and all I have to try fend off the Russian Su-35s is the crappy radar on the block 20 F-16, along with 2 AIM-120 and AIM-9 air to air missiles, I would not fly the mission.

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 75 points 4 weeks ago (2 children)

macron attempting to occupy another superposition, after allowing antichrist to fly over his country and ignoring ceasefire violations in lebanon which he signed up for

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 74 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago)

Seems as if I spoke too soon. US airstrikes do continue on Yemen for the 27th night in a row, targeting the capital, Sana'a. The Yemeni people will not even get to have one night of peace. We truly live in a rotten world sometimes.

Lots more airstrikes on Sana'a, including targeting the Nuqum mountain again.

Farmland in Sana'a Governorate targeted.

Reports from other sources of huge explosions in Saada Governorate.

Al Masirah TV twitter

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[–] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 74 points 4 weeks ago (12 children)
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[–] carl_marks_1312@hexbear.net 73 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago) (3 children)

Chinese exporters said to be ditching shipments mid-voyage to avoid crushing Trump tariffs - SCMP 2025-04-09

spoiler

A staff member at a China-listed export company, who requested anonymity, said its US-bound container volume had plummeted from 40 to 50 containers a day to just three to six as a result of the new tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by the second Trump administration.

...

With the escalating US-China tariff war already taking a heavy toll on Asian exporters, many American buyers are pulling out amid fears of soaring costs, prompting order cancellations said to be totalling as many as 300 containers a day for some manufacturers.

Facing steep new levies and an uncertain market, exporters are also scaling back operations. Factories have been reported to be cutting working hours and to have asked employees to take fewer shifts. The anonymous staff member at the China-listed firm said its US branch had begun laying off frontline workers as demand collapses.


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[–] Losurdo_Enjoyer@hexbear.net 71 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

nitter.net | xcancel | twitter

i don't think the Trump regime is "stupid" so much as i think they have had trouble coming to a unified plan of attack. It's obvious there are very real divisions between figures like Navarro, Musk, and Bessent/Miran; and the fickle 78 year old at the center is struggling with it

So Trump comes out swinging on Obliteration Day and goes full "no compromise" Navarro, then he gets pushback from the generally anti-tariff Musk, and what emerges is a warped version of the "country buckets" Bessent/Miran targeted tariff approach (tho it bears the Navarro scars).

The political establishment is incredibly fractured, and that includes the Republican party. That's why Trump is able to get away with such big initiatives without real challenge, but it's also why his actions seem pulled into different, contradictory, directions.

best take I've seen on the tariffs, i think the insider trading is just a side job. from a follow up tweet, engels actually wrote about this in an abstract way lol https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1890/letters/90_09_21.htm#%3A%7E%3Atext=For+what+each+individual+wills%2Cthe+same+laws+of+motion

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[–] BodyBySisyphus@hexbear.net 68 points 3 weeks ago (5 children)

US Commerce Secretary says exempted electronic products to come under separate tariffs. Looks like the euphoria on Monday might be short lived. Why the made the first announcement on Saturday and are saving the second for Monday beats me, maybe they're still trying to get chatGPT to come up with a plan

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[–] SexMachineStalin@hexbear.net 68 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

Nicaragua has withdrawn its support for South Africa's case against the Apartheid entity at the ICJ, confirmed on 3 April - ICJ official post

No immediate reason was given, but it is suspected that Trump had painted a target on Nicaragua's back and may have threatened to retaliate against the 450,000 Nicaraguans living in the US, in addition to Nicaragua's cordial relations with South Africa (who is now also being accused of complicity in 7 October, as an escalation of atrocity propaganda by the Orange Führer's friends).

Death to ameriKKKa

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[–] geikei@hexbear.net 68 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (14 children)

Maybe im naive but the Trump administration, despite being staffed to the brim with insane China hawks, folding on its "anti-china economic warfare" before even starting it can be spinned into a more optimistic view on the prospects of hot US-China war. The murikans dont seem to have it in them. With the first sign of things getting tough, the US folded like a cheap tent. Just the prospect of things going to shit was enough. No prices have increased, nobody lost their job, nobody has been deprived of anything real. Some numbers on screens went up or down and the powers that be forced Trump’s hand. Even if instead of chaotic and incompetent it was some calculated and competent plan for a US-China clash, at some point most of these pressures and prospects would have arisen all the same and at the end of the day it wouldnt have much better chances to win against China. Will they really decide to destroy everything in a nuclear holocaust when the decision for a hot war is there when they couldnt even let the bond market freak out for more than 5 days ? Just as them losing the trade war (or at least not having the capacity to execute it without country breaking consequences) became obvious within days, the fact that they would lose any war close to China shores in 2028 or whenever will also sink in. Especially with the trajectory of both countries. It may still be possible to sustain that delusion in the big 2025 and rig war games to barely tie the engagement but its rapidly becoming less possible, especially after this whole debacle conlcudes

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 68 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

Article is too long to post here so, tl;dr: Over 100,000 Israelis have stopped appearing for reserve duty. Attendance rates for the reserves have reportedly dropped to 50-60 percent.

https://www.972mag.com/israeli-army-refusal-crisis-gaza-war/

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[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 67 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (3 children)

Ik many know this but China's huge trade surplus (as raw numbers not % of GDP) should in many ways be seen not that different from foreign aid (particularly to the US) especially in long term. The difference between a "market transaction" and a simple "transfer" is blurred.

Its not like the old days where financial claims had to be paid back in real assets like gold or other real goods and services.

China may argue that it helps increase/maintain output and employment and that's true but the same also applies to foreign aid.

US foreign aid being a major source of demand for US goods. Yes ik, US foreign aid can be much more damaging by making the countries dependent on foreign debt combined with austerity from IMF which forbids Government intervention.

China is providing welfare to Americans. It has aid like effects. And it'll go away soon if US keeps on doing what its doing.

For example: USSR sends ₽1b worth of oil to Cuba, this alone will be an aid, but it accepts a financial claim from Cuba worth 10b Cuban pesos. This would be considered a trade deficit by many, but it is an implicit aid. It can try buying stuff from Cuba but Cuba has to allow that and there has to be enough supply. This is more "aid" than "trade".

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 67 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

The libs in Pikachu or superhero costumes at that event you go to might be cops.

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[–] miz@hexbear.net 66 points 4 weeks ago (1 children)

Bessent is a true believer who loves kool-aid

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is likewise ignorant:

I advised Scott Bessent, now Trump's Secretary of the Treasury who is leading the tariff war, in 2013 when he was still with Soros. An investment bank engaged me to advise Bessent on China's economy and consumer trends and go over my book The End of Cheap China.

I took an instant disliking - Bessent was one of the most arrogant and ignorant on China people I had ever met. He was uber bearish on China and was largely ideologically driven in his analysis. Communist countries couldn't succeed was basically the jist of his views.

Data and rational analysis did not reign supreme. ... He thinks America has the upper hand with China right now. I worry for America. We have one of the most ignorant on China yet arrogant people I've ever met running a trade war against China.

from https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/04/fall-out-from-the-tariff-wars.html

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[–] borschtisgarbo@lemmygrad.ml 66 points 4 weeks ago (3 children)

you'll love this next part

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 66 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (16 children)

With today's negotiations between the USA and Russia over the Ukraine war now concluded in St Petersburg, and negotiations between the USA and Iran taking place tomorrow in Oman, what's everyone's thoughts on this? It would be cool if we could all give our opinions and discuss, even if we disagree with each other of course. Open debate is always best, even with such highly serious topics. These are some of the most important negotiations in modern history. If they fail, we could be looking at large scale warfare and associated events that could lead to the death of many and seismic shifts in the world economy that would make tarrifs look small. Or not, hopefully.

My view is quite simple and not very insightful, the losing sides have to offer up large concessions to halt ongoing war or prevent war. Ukraine is suffering losses and losing to Russia in Ukraine, so for any "peace deal" to go through, Ukraine and the USA will have to offer some substantial concessions to Russia, such as the four oblasts in the east (or even more territory) becoming effectively Russian, future elections, no NATO, etc. If those concessions are not offered, Russia will continue the war until it reaches it's ultimate conclusion. On the other hand, Iran has suffered some substantial losses in its Axis of Resistance network, and it's deterrence is at a historical low (no Operation True Promise III/Israeli attack on Iranian soil not responded to, large US military buildup in the region), so Iran will have to offer some substantial concessions to the USA and Israel around it's uranium enrichment levels, nuclear program and potentially other assets like the Axis of Resistance, otherwise I believe the USA and Israel will go to war against Iran.

Do hexbears think the fate of Ukraine and Iran is linked somehow between the two potential deals? Can Russia play an important role in preventing war against Iran and brokering a "nuclear deal"? Can the USA play a vital role in getting Ukraine to offer up large concessions in exchange for pausing the war there and achieving a "peace deal"? I certainly hope that in both cases peace can be achieved obviously, but if war is inevitable it will happen.

On a lighter note, is Pezeshkian the Iranian Gorbachev? Is Zelenskyy the Ukrainian Churchill?

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[–] companero@hexbear.net 65 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (8 children)

Google has blurred the Starykostyantyniv Air Base in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Ukraine. This airfield was attacked by Kalibr cruise missiles in the recent missile attack and has been a prime target for other missile attacks and drones. It is also believed to house F-16s.

https://t.me/AMK_Mapping/9124

"Blurred" makes it sound somewhat innocent, but if you look at it on Google Maps, it's clearly a thorough censorship job with deliberately chosen areas to "blur" (probably cut out, replaced with old imagery, and blurred).

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 65 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

US airstrikes continue on Yemen for the 29th night in a row, with multiple rounds of airstrikes targeting the Al Bayda', Saada and Hodeidah Governorates. I think this is the first time Al Bayda' has been hit in this campaign, feel free to check me on that as usual, I can and probably will make mistakes, I'm only human and it's been almost a month of continuous airstrikes now, so it's difficult to keep track of it all.

9 airstrikes in Marib Governorate, with 5 targeting Mount Hailan, according to other sources.

Warning for potential graphic imagery of casualties during ongoing airstrikes:

Al Masirah TV twitter

Xcancel mirror

A commentator also mentioned Saudi Arabian shelling of Saada last night, and yeah orher sources collaborated that.

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[–] Frogmanfromlake@hexbear.net 65 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago) (13 children)

A thing about El Salvador many don’t seem to know is that within Central America it’s viewed in a similar way that most of the world sees Colombia. Drugs and crimes everywhere and beautiful women around every corner. By contrast, Guatemala is known for having drugs and crime everywhere with ugly looking people. Much of that is rooted in racism towards people with indigenous features.

The view on the women leads some to take advantage of migrant women coming out of there. I’ve seen and heard some disgusting shit from the same people who claim that the migrants are all crime-ridden animals.

A lighter note on this stereotype is that the regions bordering El Salvador are known in their countries to have attractive people. My department (province, state equivalent) has a reputation for having attractive men. There’s been internal sex tourism from wealthy women and a few wealthy gays here for that reason.

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[–] geikei@hexbear.net 65 points 3 weeks ago (4 children)

Since as far as i can tell China is still not selling UST and is holding it for the right momment, what if the chinese "plan" if all this continues is to wait as other UST holders keep this yield pressure on the bond market (since this situation continues pressuring asian-euro UST holding hedgefounds and BoJ given their currency and monetary state) then once the Fed is forced to do QE, China dumbs and exits USD. Inflation & rates would explode/ USD would devalue. US may not pay up or impose capital controls, but that means USD will lose GRC status

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[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 64 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago) (6 children)

https://x.com/Birdyword/status/1910344966020210690

I believe this is much more important than bond yields. The final result of foreigners not being willing to hold Dollar denominated assets will be a depreciation of dollar against other currencies. This isn't something either Fed or Treasury can control in the long run unlike bond yields.

The argument that "Trump wants a weak dollar" doesn't work if he is arguing it'll improve trade competitiveness. U.S. manufacturing is limited and its exports are even lower. It'll only add to the price rise from tariff on inputs.

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[–] EllenKelly@hexbear.net 64 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Anlysis Trump’s Tariffs Aim to Prepare the US for Hot War

Sam King April 12, 2025

Donald Trump’s dramatic, April 2 tariff announcements tanked share markets across the globe and unleashed a wave of mass media commentary claiming the policy is “irrational”, “economically illiterate” and reflective more of Trump’s egotistical ignorance than any clear policy objectives.

first few paragraphs

Trump’s personality obviously has an effect on policy and the way it is implemented, however, there is a growing consensus among the US ruling class about the urgent need to of revive US manufacturing capacity for “national security” reasons.

Trump’s tariff policy is one way of attempting to achieve this outcome. Biden’s massive suite of industrial subsidies and policies was a different method. Before Biden there was the first round of Trump tariffs. Those followed on from the Obama administration’s tax and other incentives for “re-shoring” production to the US. US oil production began rising in 2009 to become the world’s biggest oil producer by 2019.

None of these policies were substantially reversed by changes of government. Biden retained the tariffs from the first Trump administration. Today Trump does not propose canceling Biden’s industrial policies, though they may be modified. Both Republicans and Democrats have steadily increased the range of US products banned from export to China under US technology prohibitions. Both parties also support sanctions on Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela and other countries.

The problem for the US ruling class is not – as Richard Wolf and others argue – that it is unable to compete in “free market” competition with China. If that were the case, it’s declining position would be reflected in declining national wealth and income. In fact, average US income increased in dollar terms by 55 per cent over the ten years to 2023 to almost US$83,000 per person according to World Bank data. While much of that was offset by rising inflation, in 2023 Chinese income was just $US12,614 dollars, over seven times lower.

US capitalism and other imperialist states such as Australia can continue to leverage their technological dominance to make huge super-profits in the globalised economy while outsourcing routine production processes to lower cost economies like Mexico, China or Vietnam. Their ability to keep doing that is why much of the capitalist press sees Trump’s policy as “economically illiterate”.

The problem that Trump, his advisors and US imperialism’s key political strategists seek to fix is not a lack of US profitability relative to its competitors but something else.

The global division of labour that has developed within the framework of US dominance has undermined US manufacturing capacity specifically. While US capital may design, develop, organise, control, market and deliver a product, less actual fabrication is taking place in the US. This weakness in manufacturing specifically makes US imperialism vulnerable to strategic catastrophe in the event of a breakdown of the world trading system, as would likely occur in another major war

.

via https://red-spark.org/2025/04/12/trumps-tariffs-aim-to-prepare-the-us-for-hot-war/

sent to me by a comrade

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[–] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 64 points 4 weeks ago (7 children)

trump threatening sanctions on mexico unless they give up supposedly stolen water

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[–] ziggurter@hexbear.net 64 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (4 children)

Not primary source, but (BadEmbanada) video which summarizes and cites them.

Jews Have Religious Right to Genocide, Says Israeli Supreme Court ["Israel is Jewish ISIS"]

Israeli Supreme Court cites the Bible to justify starving Palestinians, ethnic cleansing, explicitly refusing to follow international humanitarian law and distinguish between civilians and military targets, etc.

Quite a fucking confession.

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[–] Parsani@hexbear.net 63 points 4 weeks ago (3 children)

JPMorgan Analyst’s ‘Redacted’ Report Spells Out Fear of Trump https://archive.is/kyist

paulie-point

"We heard yr saying bad stuff about the economy"

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[–] Sulv@hexbear.net 63 points 4 weeks ago (1 children)

I did not have ‘China taking the mantle as the leader of the rules based international order’ on my 2025 bingo card. Incredible things are happening.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 62 points 4 weeks ago (9 children)

The Israeli military think tank 'Alma' has released an infographic, claiming that Iran has successfully established new supply lines to Hezbollah. According to the think tank, which is funded by the Israeli military, Iran has found alternative routes to supply Hezbollah, including through indirect flights via Turkey, smuggling via sea, and smuggling via land.

The think tank asserts that Iran ships weapons to Sudan, smuggling them through the country and then into Libya, and from there into the Mediterranean Sea – where Hezbollah picks up the weapons caches that are 'dropped at sea'. Alma also alleges that Iran still directly supplies Hezbollah with weapons using cargo flights via Turkey and Iraq, transporting individual parts that can be used to produce the weapons, rather than delivering entire weapons, as this would not pass Lebanese inspection.

  • Telegram
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[–] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 61 points 4 weeks ago

do-something amerikkka Balkanize already.

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