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Chance of 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4 smashing into Earth rises yet again to 3.1%, NASA reports (www.livescience.com)

submitted 1 month ago by Espiritdescali to c/futurology

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[–] JohnDClay@sh.itjust.works 8 points 1 month ago (1 children)

It'll keep going up as we eliminate trajectory possibilities till we eliminate the one with the Earth and it rapidly drops to zero. Unless it doesn't, and jumps to 100%.

Seems surprisingly possible to deflect though. The question is whether the place it would come down is willing/able to devote the resources. https://youtu.be/Esk1hg2knno

[–] Xavienth@lemmygrad.ml 1 points 1 month ago

It's likely we won't actually know with certainty until its next pass in 2028. The window for observation is closing, especially for smaller telescopes. Even with our best telescopes, we have until about June, and these are very busy telescopes.