Futurology

Put the two side by side, and the result is striking. The biggest polysilicon producers right now can go head-to-head with some of the biggest oil companies such as BP, Eni and ConocoPhillips — and panel makers** **aren’t far behind. Should Tongwei go ahead with plans announced in December to build a 400,000 ton polysilicon plant in Inner Mongolia, nearly doubling its current output, it might overtake even ExxonMobil:

That still understates things. An oil company is ultimately developing reserves of petroleum that can keep producing for a decade or so into the future. A manufacturer, similarly, is building a factory that can churn out similar volumes year in, year out, until the equipment is worn out or obsolete.

If you consider what each group of companies can produce without major additional investments — comparing the volumes in oil firms’ geological reserves to what solar companies will be able to produce before depreciation wears out their plant — clean power moves clearly into the lead:

That’s still forgetting one more crucial factor. A solar panel sold by Longi in 2024 will be generating electricity for decades. Most carry 25-year warranties. Oil and gas sold this year, however, will almost all be used up in a matter of months. If you look at the long-term flow of energy into the global economy that’s crystallized with each solar cell produced, it’s many times what’s being provided by Big Oil:

Any comparison between oil and solar can be criticized for comparing apples with oranges — but if you buy apples and oranges you’ll often get a label telling you how many kilojoules they contain, and we should do doing the same for the exajoules provided by oil and solar businesses. Fruit, fuel and electricity all ultimately provide a measurable flow of energy.

Since the first industrial revolution raised coal-rich Britain, Germany and the US to dominance, and the rise of crude brought power and wealth to Russia and the Middle East while extending America’s global lead, the nations that controlled the headwaters of these energy flows have been the hegemons of each succeeding century.

Right now, seven Chinese companies have a bigger stake in the power source of the 21st century than the Seven Sisters of oil that dominated the 20th. If you want to understand the roots of the geopolitical angst driving Washington’s crackdown on China’s clean technology, it’s impossible to ignore that fact.