this post was submitted on 26 Jan 2024
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Futurology
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I think this will come as a surprise to most people. 2.2 sounds like it's above the replacement rate, but as Jesús Fernández-Villaverde explains, selective gendered abortions & high infant mortality in some countries mean that it isn't.
The figures for South Korea are quite stark. They've engineered a society where they'll shrink to 20 million in size from today's 51 million. His figures rely on the average human life expectancy staying at 85. It's possible in decades to come that may exceed 100. It may not, but there are lots of people working to make it happen.
Imagine, if you will, a world where housing prices weren't cost-prohibitive and there exists enough agricultural land to feed everyone without having companies like monsanto destroying the ecology.
Lowering populations should only be scary if you derive your income from the labor of the masses or plan to derive your income from the labor of the masses.
If you believe their figures, it's notable that although North Korea has about half the population of the South, it currently has more babies. Could lead to interesting situation regarding potential re-unification (although not likely any time soon...).
I wonder if they might actually allow immigrants, while the birth rate other places is still higher. They have less of a reputation for xenophobia than, say, Japan.