Futurology Today

Boston Dynamics latest demo of its humanoid robot Atlas shows the day when robots can do most unskilled and semi-skilled work is getting closer. At the current rate of development that may be as soon as 2030.

Many people's ideas of the future are shaped by dystopian narratives from sci-fi. For storytelling purposes they always dramatize things to be the worst possible. But they are a poor way of predicting the future.

UBTECH, a Chinese manufacturer's $16,000 humanoid robot is a better indicator of where things are going. The sci-fi dystopian view of the future is that mega-corps will own and control the robots and 99% of humanity will be reduced to serfdom.

All the indications are that things are going in the opposite direction. The more likely scenario is that people will be able to purchase several humanoid robots for the price of an average car. It's not inconceivable that average people will be able to afford robots to grow their own food (if they have some land), maintain their houses, and do additional work for them.

Meta's Open Source Robotics AI

Here's a video of the latest version of the humanoid robot Atlas.

Boston Dynamics has always been a leader in robotics, but there are many others not far behind it. Not only will robots like Atlas continue to improve, thanks to Chinese manufacturing they will get cheaper. UBTECH's version of Atlas retails for $16,000. Some will quibble it's not as good, but it soon will be. Not only that but in a few years' time, many manufacturer's robots will be more powerful than Atlas is today. Some Chinese versions will be even cheaper than UBTECH's.

At some point, robots like these will be selling in their thousands, and then millions to do unskilled and semi-skilled work that now employs humans, the only question is how soon. At $16,000, and considering they can work 24/7, they will cost a small fraction to employ, versus even minimum wage jobs.

Here's an AI summary of the video

Small modular reactors (SMRs) aim to make nuclear power faster and cheaper, but they face significant cost overruns and delays, raising doubts about their viability.

Highlights

📈 Growing Interest: Over 25 countries are investing in SMRs due to renewable energy challenges.

🚢 Modular Design: SMRs can be produced in factories and transported, similar to modular furniture.

💰 Cost Issues: Initial estimates for SMR projects often triple or quadruple, making them expensive.

⏳ Delayed Timelines: Projects typically take three times longer to complete than planned.

🌍 Limited Operations: Only three SMRs are operational globally, indicating slow progress.

🔍 Underestimating Costs: Companies may downplay costs to attract investors, complicating financial forecasting.

⚠️ Need for Realism: Acknowledging these challenges is crucial for the future of nuclear power.

Key Insights

🌎 Global Momentum: Many countries are recognizing the need for SMRs due to energy demands and climate goals, but investment alone doesn’t guarantee success.

🏭 Production Challenges: While SMRs promise factory production, the reality of logistics and assembly can complicate this efficiency.

📊 Economic Viability: High costs undermine the argument for SMRs as a cheaper alternative, raising concerns about their competitiveness against renewables.

🕰️ Project Management: The significant delays in SMR projects highlight the need for better project management and realistic timelines in nuclear development.

🔄 Innovation Stagnation: The lack of recent technological advancements in nuclear energy contributes to ongoing reliability and cost issues for SMRs.

📈 Investor Hesitance: The pattern of underestimating costs may deter potential investors, complicating funding for future projects.

🔍 Critical Perspective: Supporting nuclear energy requires an honest assessment of its challenges, ensuring informed decisions in energy policy.