Lugh

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On Bluesky and enshittification (fediversereport.com)
submitted 8 months ago by Lugh to c/futurology
 

Boston Dynamics latest demo of its humanoid robot Atlas shows the day when robots can do most unskilled and semi-skilled work is getting closer. At the current rate of development that may be as soon as 2030.

Many people's ideas of the future are shaped by dystopian narratives from sci-fi. For storytelling purposes they always dramatize things to be the worst possible. But they are a poor way of predicting the future.

UBTECH, a Chinese manufacturer's $16,000 humanoid robot is a better indicator of where things are going. The sci-fi dystopian view of the future is that mega-corps will own and control the robots and 99% of humanity will be reduced to serfdom.

All the indications are that things are going in the opposite direction. The more likely scenario is that people will be able to purchase several humanoid robots for the price of an average car. It's not inconceivable that average people will be able to afford robots to grow their own food (if they have some land), maintain their houses, and do additional work for them.

Meta's Open Source Robotics AI

 

Here's a video of the latest version of the humanoid robot Atlas.

Boston Dynamics has always been a leader in robotics, but there are many others not far behind it. Not only will robots like Atlas continue to improve, thanks to Chinese manufacturing they will get cheaper. UBTECH's version of Atlas retails for $16,000. Some will quibble it's not as good, but it soon will be. Not only that but in a few years' time, many manufacturer's robots will be more powerful than Atlas is today. Some Chinese versions will be even cheaper than UBTECH's.

At some point, robots like these will be selling in their thousands, and then millions to do unskilled and semi-skilled work that now employs humans, the only question is how soon. At $16,000, and considering they can work 24/7, they will cost a small fraction to employ, versus even minimum wage jobs.

[–] Lugh 6 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (6 children)

the marginal cost of labor will rapidly approach zero.....................................Moreover, history shows that although capital (in the form of facilities, machinery, and knowledge) have substituted and thus displaced labor time and time again, labor has nevertheless evolved to remain complementary to that capital.

This illustrates the problem I always have with these discussions. It's even more frustrating in this article, as it clearly states facts, but in the most cowardly of fashions avoids honest implications. How are we supposed to have a free market economy based on capitalism when there is zero value for labor either physical or intellectual?

Every single part of our financial system is based on that; from banking to mortgages to consumer spending to the stock market having valuations to property having valuations. If every single job you can imagine, even the future ones, can be done by machines that are vastly cheaper than humans on the minimum wage, you cannot possibly have an economy that is anything like today's. Yet cowards that they are, the authors of this article lead us all they way to that conclusion, but are too scared to say it.

[–] Lugh 5 points 1 year ago (1 children)

There are many theories linking consciousness and quantum physics, and it's important to say that this research doesn't prove any of them. However, if the research can be replicated in a proper peer reviewed way, it will provide startling new correlations between observed effects of consciousness and quantum physics.

These tryptophan networks are common in microtubules, structural components widespread in all cells. Although no one knows why anesthetics cause people to lose consciousness, there is evidence for them having effects in these microtubules. There is also existing research that seems to show correlations between quantum behavior in these microtubules and the actions of anesthesia. With this fresh research, now it seems there may be a further link between these microtubules and quantum physics.

Its possible implications for AI may be huge too. Some assume current approaches to AI will lead to some form of machine consciousness; this suggests that belief may be misplaced, as 3D structures like microtubules may play a role in creating it.

ORIGINAL SOURCE: Ultraviolet Superradiance from Mega-Networks of Tryptophan in Biological Architectures

[–] Lugh 0 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Huge error? No, but sloppy,

Sure, but maybe that is a distraction from what is significant here.

Assuming this finding is valid, and can be replicated in a peer-reviewed way, then the link between quantum effects in the tryptophan networks in tubules and the action of anesthetics, is at the very least a startling coincidence.

[–] Lugh 2 points 1 year ago (3 children)

The wonderful science YouTuber Anton Petrov has done a great video giving an overview of this finding. He discusses it primarily in the context of anesthesia and consciousness, but the discovery could have wider implications.

There are many theories linking consciousness and quantum physics, and it's important to say that this research doesn't prove any of them. However, if the research can be replicated in a proper peer reviewed way, it will provide startling new correlations between observed effects of consciousness and quantum physics.

Its possible implications for AI may be huge too. Some assume current approaches to AI will lead to some form of machine consciousness; this suggests that belief is misplaced.

ORIGINAL SOURCE: Ultraviolet Superradiance from Mega-Networks of Tryptophan in Biological Architectures

[–] Lugh 8 points 1 year ago (3 children)

DK has both the research and manufacturing capacity to make these claims credible. Earlier this year they outlined an improved chemistry for lithium ion batteries that might boost their capacity between 10 and 40%.

The ceramics in these batteries are too delicate for batteries that large, even so small wearable devices that need to charge much less often will be very commercially popular.

[–] Lugh 7 points 1 year ago (1 children)

The human intestine is 6 meters long. It can be useful to locate problems with millimeter precision as this approach claims to do.

[–] Lugh 23 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Edible robots and robotic food — edible systems that perceive, process, and act upon stimulation — could open a new range of opportunities in health care, environmental management, and the promotion of healthier eating habits. For example, they could enable precise drug delivery and in vivo health monitoring, deliver autonomously targeted nutrition in emergencies, reduce waste in farming, facilitate wild animal vaccination

I think this is one of those ideas, that when you first hear about it you scratch your head thinking what on earth could that be useful for?, but then the more you think about it, actually these researchers have a point.

It would be silly to have large edible robots but what if the future is filled with trillions of tiny insect-sized robots? There are already drones being built this size. From that perspective, this makes more sense. For a start they are biodegradable. It gives them all sorts of uses in monitoring health and delivering medicine to animals. Suddenly you can have a whole layer of monitoring tiny robots in the environment and not have to worry about pollution when they come to the end of their useful life span. Not to mention this is a targeted way of delivering food to vulnerable species that may be affected by climate change emergencies.

[–] Lugh 15 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I have zero confidence in the promises of any of the big tech companies when it comes to privacy and AI.

[–] Lugh 5 points 1 year ago

I have a feeling it will be China who gets there first with mass-produced robots. They have the manufacturing base for it, nowhere else on the planet does near as much.

[–] Lugh 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

What concerns me is that a lot of these efforts seem to be political in nature and are tied to mitigating the inevitable decline in the fossil fuel industry. More often it makes more sense to speed up the use of renewables and dropping the use of fossil fuels. Fossil fuel use still hasn't peaked. That is mainly driven by China, who are still building new coal and gas electricity plants. However the peak year of fossil fuel use is very near, there is some speculation it may even be this year for oil use. From then on it will be in steady decline, so of course that industry is going to do everything they can to delay.

[–] Lugh 10 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

This is interesting as it runs counter to what many people think about current AI. Its performance seems directly linked to the quality of the training data it has. Here the opposite is happening; it has poor training data and still outperforms humans. It's not surprising the humans would do badly in this situation too; it's hard to keep up to date on things that you may only encounter once or twice in your entire career. It's interesting to extrapolate from this observation as it applies to many other fields.

One of the authors of the paper goes into more detail on Twitter.

[–] Lugh 4 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Four months is a long time in 2020's AI development. OpenAI debuted Sora in February this year but hasn't publicly released it. Now a Chinese company called Kuaishou has got ahead of them with a model it calls Kling. Kuaishou is TikTok's biggest competitor in China and has a video-sharing app used by 200 million people. Presumably, that is where all its training data came from. Unlike OpenAI, Kling is available to some of the public.

This tech still doesn't look ready to level the TV and movie industry. It does 5-second clips, but who wants a 90-minute movie made up of nothing but 5-second clips?

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