Lugh

joined 2 years ago
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The US export controls aimed at limiting Chinese AI development are struggling. China's latest AI reasoning models perform well on older, domestically produced GPU chips, with scale being more critical than chip advancement. China is also progressing toward parity in advanced chip production.

These controls have driven Chinese innovation, leading to models like Deepseek, now considered among the world's best. A significant shift is China's embrace of open-source AI models, expanding its talent pool and offering a strategic edge. In contrast, US efforts rely heavily on private investment, betting on future tech "unicorns" to generate massive profits.

In early 2025 another profound global shift favors Open-Source over US tech. As the US disengages from NATO to side with Russia, Europeans are left scrambling to replace reliance on US technology. They, and much of the rest of the world, are now much less likely to adopt new US technology, as it will be seen as adversarial and a security threat.

A couple of years ago the story of Open-Source AI was just a curiosity to be remarked on, perhaps it is about to take the main stage.

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submitted 7 months ago by Lugh to c/futurology
 

As the US pivots to aligning itself with Russia, and threatening two NATO members with invasion, the NATO alliance seems all but dead. Russia is openly threatening the Baltic states and Moldova, not to mention the hybrid war it has been attacking Europe with for years.

All this has forced action. The EU has announced an €800 billion fund to urgently rearm Europe. Separately the Germans are planning to spend €1 trillion on a military and infrastructure build-up. Meanwhile, the owner of SpaceX and Starlink is coming to be seen as a public enemy in Europe. Twitter/X may be banned, and alternatives to Starlink are being sought for Ukraine.

Europe has been taking a leisurely pace to develop a reusable rocket. ESA has two separate plans in development, but neither with urgent deadlines. Will this soon change? Germany recently announced ambitious plans for a spaceplane that can take off from regular runways. Its 2028 delivery date seemed very ambitious. If it is part of a new German military, might it happen on time?

[–] Lugh 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

For sure there is a certain amount of hype here. That said much of their thinking seems like it could be sound. But I want to see stuff like this working in practice, not just theoretically. I guess we will have to wait and see.

[–] Lugh 16 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (3 children)

Dear ChatGPT - Please pretend I'm a rich, white man when you're writing my college admissions essay for me, thanks, Signed - A Poor

[–] Lugh 11 points 1 year ago (1 children)

This engine seems to work like an ion thruster but uses metal as fuel instead of xenon gas, which is easier to refine and can be found in asteroids all over the Solar System.

[–] Lugh 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

On the galactic scale its the second-nearest star to us out of billions.

[–] Lugh 3 points 1 year ago

It's fascinating we are living through a time when exoplanets are first being found . This planet is closer to its Red Dwarf star then Mercury is to our far far hotter G-type star. Still, the surface temperature is only 25 degrees Celsius above boiling point.

[–] Lugh 3 points 1 year ago

Pop-up mobile parks can do the same. I love this example from London.

[–] Lugh 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

In most countries, people elect the local officials who make zoning decisions. It's not a fundamental barrier.

[–] Lugh 1 points 1 year ago

Altman and Musk seem to both get away with endless BS.

[–] Lugh 3 points 1 year ago (6 children)

They quote a cost of $1,000 per square meter (S100 sq foot). So I arrived at my calculation assuming a size of 100 sq m/1,000 sq feet for an average 'starter home' 2-bedroom dwelling.

The fact that housing crises are occurring in so many Western countries suggests to me that there is something very fundamental that is broken and wrong with our system of supplying housing - one of life's most basic human necessities.

If the system is the problem, then the system can't provide the solution, perhaps only radical new ways of doing things can?

Germans have a system of purchasing property called "Wohnungsgenossenschaften". It is where individuals come together in a not-for-profit cooperative, to build and finance their own apartment buildings and housing complexes. This technology seems a perfect fit for that, maybe we would all be better off in other western countries if we adopted this system more?

[–] Lugh 1 points 1 year ago

Yes, sadly he was quite prescient. I often think we're in a time of transition/decay because of tech like AI & robotics. Sadly perfect conditions for fascism, which the right has so often transmuted into throughout history.

[–] Lugh 9 points 1 year ago (4 children)

Some people may have doubts about these claims, but China leads the world in manufacturing. They've also blasted past all expectations when it comes to developing batteries, renewables and EVs. I wouldn't bet against them.

[–] Lugh 1 points 1 year ago

I know this isn't a very serious story, but it made me smile. One day soon the robotaxis won't be getting confused anymore. Assuming she gets in office, I'd guess President Harris is going to have to deal with the issue of unemployed human taxi drivers during her four years in office.

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