Lugh

joined 2 years ago
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Dario Amodei, CEO of AI firm Anthropic, in October 2024 penned an optimistic vision of the future when AI and robots can do most work in a 14,000 word essay entitled - 'Machines of Loving Grace'.

Last month Mr Amodei was reported as saying the following - “I don’t know exactly when it’ll come,” CEO Dario Amodei told the Wall Street Journal. “I don’t know if it’ll be 2027…I don’t think it will be a whole bunch longer than that when AI systems are better than humans at almost everything. Better than almost all humans at almost everything. And then eventually better than all humans at everything.”

Although Mr Amodei wasn't present at the recent inauguration, the rest of Big Tech was. They seem united behind America's most prominent South African, in his bid to tear down the American administrative state and remake it (into who knows what?). Simultaneously they are leading us into a future where we will have to compete with robots & AI for jobs, where they are better than us, and cost pennies an hour to employ.

Mr. Amodei is rapidly making this world of non-human workers come true, but at least he has a vision for what comes after. What about the rest of Big Tech? How long can they just preach the virtues of destruction, but not tell us what will arise from the ashes afterwards?

Reference - 36 page PDF - SWE-Lancer: Can Frontier LLMs Earn $1 Million from Real-World Freelance Software Engineering?

 

Here's the robots in action.

I wonder how far away we are from humanoid robots that can perform most unskilled or semi-skilled work? Cleaning, factory work, stacking shelves etc etc

When you look at this it doesn't seem that far away.

I would also guess that if Chinese manufacturers can make and sell hatchback cars for 10,000 dollars they will be able to make robots like this for less.

When that day comes, we will very quickly have a new type of society and economy, though who knows what that will look like.

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Automated Driving in Winter Conditions (www.changinglanesnewsletter.com)
submitted 6 months ago by Lugh to c/avs
 

More and more it looks like the Western world's embrace of neoliberalism was a catastrophic mistake. Its guiding principle is that capital and the markets are always right, and governments/the people should have no say in what they do. After decades of this, manufacturing and industry have fled to where capital & the markets can get the cheapest labor, leaving most Western countries hollowed out and deindustrialized.

COVID exposed a fresh weakness in this model of organizing economies, but now there's yet another disadvantage coming to light. By making China the world's manufacturing HQ, it is handing it the crown of the planet's No 1 in technology.

By rapidly becoming the world's leading car maker, China is in gear to become the world's leading robotics nation. Add to that, it's also arguably already the world's leading AI nation.

Some people in Western countries see this in terms of wars and arms races, but maybe the solution is to look within at home and dump neoliberalism?

 

US Big Tech wants to eliminate the federal government administered by humans, and replace it with AI. Amid all the talk that has generated one aspect has gone relatively unreported. None of the AI they want to replace the humans with actually works.

AI is still plagued by widespread simple and basic errors in reasoning. Furthermore, there is no path to fixing this problem. Tinkering with training data has provided some improvements, but it has not fixed the fundamental problem. AI lacks the ability to independently reason.

'Move fast and break things' has always been a Silicon Valley mantra. It seems increasingly that is the way the basic functions of administering the US state will be run too.

[–] Lugh 4 points 11 months ago

When I think about this issue, I sometimes think about future scenarios on a scale of 1 - 10, with 10 being 'most confidence to predict will occur' and 1 being 'least able to definitively predict'.

I give UBI a 4 on that scale. It may well occur, but there are different ways of achieving the same goal, so who knows.

One of the few facts I rank at 10, is that the day is coming when AI and robotics will be able to do most work, even the jobs uninvented, but for pennies on the hour.

The logical follow-on is that the day will also have to come, when society realizes that this is happening, understands it, and begins to prepare for its new reality. This is going to seem scary for many people; they will just see the destructive aspects of it, as the old ways of running the world crumble.

This is how I look at what this research is talking about - signs of this awakening becoming more widespread. We badly need politicians who start telling us about what the world is going to be like afterwards, and painting a hopeful vision about it.

[–] Lugh 0 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

I don't think Sabine Hossenfelder gets everything right, (she should stay away from talking about consciousness), but I love it when she goes on these eviscerating rants about some other physicists. She's right, much of the field, like economics, is dominated by people who can only say one "correct" version of things to keep their jobs.

[–] Lugh 3 points 11 months ago (1 children)

In Europe and North America food loss adds up to around 16%

Everywhere in the world hunger and malnutrition are distribution problems, not lack of production problems.

[–] Lugh 4 points 11 months ago

If you are familiar with the idea of AI taking off into the realms of superintelligence, one of the steps that is supposed to accompany that is recursive self-improvement. In other words when AI can write its own code, to improve itself, and thus continuously get more and more powerful. I wonder if examples like this are the tiny first baby steps of that.

[–] Lugh 3 points 11 months ago (1 children)

I'm surprised drone deliveries haven't taken off more yet, these guys in Germany look like they are on to a winning solution too.

https://www.siliconrepublic.com/machines/wingcopter-drone-delivery-groceries-germany

[–] Lugh 84 points 11 months ago (5 children)

Microsoft has cash reserves of $75 billion.

Microsoft - If you really want to convince us that nuclear power is part of the future, why can't you use some of your own money? Why does every single nuclear suggestion always rely on bailouts from taxpayers? Here's a thought, if you can't pay for it yourself - just pick the cheaper option that taxpayers don't have to pay for - you know renewables and grid storage? The stuff that everybody else, all over the world, is building near 99% of new electricity generation with.

[–] Lugh 5 points 11 months ago

"INBRAIN’s BCI technology was able to differentiate between healthy and cancerous brain tissue with micrometer-scale precision."

This breakthrough with the surgery is very interesting, but what is even more interesting to me is their wider goals. They wonder if it will be possible to use this approach to treat many brain disorders, including mental health conditions.

This also has the potential for a direct connection between artificial intelligence and our brains. That has long been speculated about in sci-fi. This approach has a chance of starting to make it a reality.

[–] Lugh 2 points 11 months ago

When I look at the potential in current advances in medicine, and the idiocracy that passes for "politics" and "debate", in some quarters, I wonder when more people are going to wise up.

Training and educating surgeons is the biggest bottleneck in the availability of their skills, and thus the amount of surgeries people can have. Here we have the potential to smash through that. Procedure by procedure, as robots master individual types of surgery, suddenly the only type of bottleneck you have is the amount of robots. A vastly easier and quicker problem to solve than increasing the supply of trained human surgeons.

[–] Lugh 2 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

For sure there is a certain amount of hype here. That said much of their thinking seems like it could be sound. But I want to see stuff like this working in practice, not just theoretically. I guess we will have to wait and see.

[–] Lugh 16 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (3 children)

Dear ChatGPT - Please pretend I'm a rich, white man when you're writing my college admissions essay for me, thanks, Signed - A Poor

[–] Lugh 11 points 11 months ago (1 children)

This engine seems to work like an ion thruster but uses metal as fuel instead of xenon gas, which is easier to refine and can be found in asteroids all over the Solar System.

[–] Lugh 4 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

On the galactic scale its the second-nearest star to us out of billions.

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