Lugh

joined 2 years ago
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Article with overview.

OpenAI & Anthropic have both made calls for Chinese AI models to be banned in the US on national security grounds. While it is true countries have reason to distrust other countries' tech, I doubt this is the real reason they are upset.

Their big problem is that Open-Source AI annihilates their chances of succeeding as businesses. Silicon Valley's model of VC funding is to bet on many small start-ups, hoping one becomes a 'unicorn' - a multi-billion dollar company (like Google, Meta, etc) able to dominate an industry and rake in hundreds of billions of dollars.

Even if they succeed in banning Chinese Open-Source - does this mean they'll become unicorns? I doubt it. The Chinese Open-Source AI models are superior to theirs. Most of the rest of the world will use them, and the real AI innovation will happen in the rest of the world. Meanwhile Americans will make do with the second-best AI, that can only survive when it gets the best banned.

 

China has long favored this strategy. It realises how vulnerable its fossil fuel supply is to US naval blockade should it decide to invade Taiwan. Now it seems you don't have to invade anyone for the 'blockade' of tariffs. Hence, this report argues that more nations will follow China's strategy.

Although I'm sure it will have an effect, I'd guess the biggest drivers are still the cheapness of renewables and countries' net zero goals. In particular home solar/microgrids and cheap Chinese vehicles which I imagine will blanket every corner of the world in the 2030s.

Download Report - PDF 27 pages

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submitted 6 months ago by Lugh to c/avs
[–] Lugh 2 points 11 months ago (1 children)

There is relatively little research modeling asteroid ejecta dispersing throughout the galaxy. I'm really surprised this isn't researched more.

https://astrobiology.com/2022/02/on-possible-life-dispersal-patterns-beyond-the-earth.html

[–] Lugh 2 points 11 months ago (2 children)

false negatives

I don't get your logic here either. A false negative would have zero implications for anyone. It would have no legal standing or relevance.

[–] Lugh 4 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (3 children)

It is possible that the cyanobacteria performing better under the k-star light is just a coincidence. It's surprises me science hasn't got a better handle on the numbers around Panspermia. If we know material from other planetary systems outside our solar system gets to Earth, surely the burning question is how much, and from how many different planetary systems?

Also, looked at the other way around, there is another question. How much Earth asteroid ejecta is getting to k-star planetary systems in our galaxy? The obvious follow-on finding is that such ejecta might easily be spreading life to such places.

[–] Lugh 3 points 11 months ago (6 children)

Surely highlighting 5 million out of 24 million is more efficient than checking them all?

[–] Lugh 5 points 11 months ago (10 children)

Even though we often (rightly) focus on our AI worries, this is evidence AI can also do society great good too.

[–] Lugh 7 points 11 months ago (2 children)

The research in question grew a common plant - garden cress, and a cyanobacteria under a simulated K dwarf light spectrum. This has never been tested before, somewhat surprisingly, the garden cress grew as normally as it would from our G-type star's sunlight, but the cyanobacteria grew even better.

Panspermia is the idea that life throughout the universe is seeded from elsewhere. We can easily see the mechanism for this in our own solar system. Asteroid ejecta from Mars has made its way to Earth many times. We can assume the opposite has happened with Earth's material traveling throughout our solar system. Indeed, if we found life on Mars or Europa, the first question would be if it arose independently or was seeded via Panspermia.

This discovery bolsters the idea that the same thing is happening throughout the galaxy. It would be harder for such asteroid ejecta to escape the gravitational pull of its local solar system, but it does happen. Thus dust from other planets outside the solar system reaches our Earth, and we can assume vice versa.

This is why this discovery is so intriguing. K-type stars are common, making up 12% of all stars. Not only that, they are unusually long-lived and stable. Gliese 86, a K-type star that is 35 light years from us, is 10 billion years old, more than twice the age of our own solar system.

If cyanobacteria perform better under a K-type star's light - did they originally evolve there?

It is possible we are operating under completely incorrect assumptions, both about the origin of life on our own planet, and the search for life on others. Most research into the origin of life here assumes it arose independently. Perhaps, it is much more reasonable to think Panspermia is the most likely explanation.

Secondly, the search for extraterrestrial life assumes we are looking for something that arose independently elsewhere. Perhaps, that is wrong too. Maybe it is more reasonable to think microbial life is common everywhere in the universe but primarily has spread by Panspermia, with who knows how few times it has arisen independently.

[–] Lugh 10 points 11 months ago (2 children)

I think part of this increase may be down to an increased awareness of mental health issues. Mental health problems that were not understood, or ignored in decades past, are much more clearly seen now.

However, it seems undeniable that life has gotten worse across the Western world for younger generations. Economic independence of any kind is impossible without going into soul-crushing debt first. In many ways, it bears similarity to the indentured servitude of the past. Meanwhile, you get lectured by a generation that grew up with free education, cheap rents, and jobs that were easy to get and could support a whole family.

If much of this is caused by economic factors, will the soon-to-be widespread automation of more of the economy make things better or worse? My guess is that in the short term, they will get worse. Until we arrive at what new economic model follows.

Driving jobs are about to disappear to self-driving autonomous vehicles. They were one of the last refuges of the less educated to have a degree of economic independence, especially for less educated young men. The mental health consequences of that category of job disappearing forever may be enormous.

[–] Lugh 5 points 11 months ago (1 children)

These are going to be great for lots of types of workers, especially in nursing and elder care. More broadly, I wonder will there come a day where human workers will need them, to compete with actual robot workers?

[–] Lugh 6 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

It’s a bit off-topic, but I think Gwynne Shotwell is overseeing most of the day-to-day operations at SpaceX by this point.

I would hope so. The Thai Cave Rescue demonstrated to me why that man should never have any decision-making in any engineering project. That he thought a rigid submarine was a solution for bendy caves that even human divers had trouble contorting through was bad enough. That he completely lost his shit when a real engineer pointed out how stupid the idea was is even worse. If those patterns of behavior and decision-making are playing out at the very highest level of America's Space Program, he is part of the problem not the solution

[–] Lugh 4 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

might very well be sink or swim for the company.

Tesla/Musk, and so many other 'billionaires', are lucky to live in an age when global central banks would rather print trillions in extra dollars and euros, than let stock markets crash. They are buoyed up by a fake proxy for success.

[–] Lugh 12 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Given Musk's record of non-stop bullshi***ng, i'm prepared to believe the worst about any offstage shenanigans making this look more impressive than it was.

The robotaxi and announcements about FSD were deeply disappointing. Just more vague promises about the future. It's madness to me this man has been allowed have such a senior and pivotal position in America's Space Program.

https://futurology.today/post/2504123?scrollToComments=true

[–] Lugh 7 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (2 children)

Never get your hopes up, that way you won't be disappointed, so the cynical saying goes. So I wasn't that surprised, that once again when Elon Musk promised tangible things, instead he gave us marketing aspirations. Including promising (once again) that FSD was 'just around the corner', something he has being saying for several years now. The robotaxi was little more than a concept car with similar promises that maybe/might happen at a certain date in the future.

Multiple Chinese firms will probably have succeeded with all of this before Tesla does.

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