Lugh

joined 2 years ago
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I'd guess by the end of 2025, it's almost guaranteed locally run Chinese AI models will become by far the most common and used forms of AI around the world.

So far the Chinese AIs have been using the global corpus of internet scraped data, but they are about to get a new source - Chinese public data. This raises an interesting possibility. First, that Chinese AI starts thinking in a more Chinese way, and second that this form of thinking may become the most dominant form of AI thinking globally.

 

Here's a Jan 25th 2025 quote on X/Twitter (which his firm helped Musk buy) from Marc Anderessen, head of VC firm Andreessen Horowitz/a16z.

"A world in which human wages crash from AI -- logically, necessarily -- is a world in which productivity growth goes through the roof, and prices for goods and services crash to near zero. Consumer cornucopia. Everything you need and want for pennies."

This is the world Big Tech is building for us. Given their hold over the current US administration, barring a political revolution - there's not much to stop them for the next 4 years.

If their power to create that world via AI & robotics is seemingly unstoppable, what about a counter-intuitive idea? Engage them on it seriously. At the very least the transition to this world might need the kind of emergency economic supports the Covid era had.

It seems strange Big Tech is so open about what it intends to do, yet we are still not taking it seriously, despite them saying it all out loud.

 

Throughout 2024 Open Source AI has been slowly catching up with investor-funded AI, but in the first weeks of 2025 that has dramatically accelerated. Now Open Source isn't just catching up, it is arguably better and superior to investor-funded AI.

Restrictions on chip imports seem to be driving Chinese innovation, not slowing them down. Using lesser chips, they've optimized AI to run cheaper and more efficiently, but be just as powerful. Not only that, they've open-sourced that AI.

Where does that leave the hundreds of billions poured into investor-funded AI? Who knows. But they've no product to sell that people can't get elsewhere way cheaper or for free.

This also means AI will become decentralized and democratized. Many thought it would just be in the hands of Big Tech, but the exact opposite scenario is playing out.

What are the economic implications? AI hype is keeping the US stock market afloat - how long can that last?

Source

[–] Lugh 7 points 8 months ago

Agreed. Sadly though I think we are heading for 2.4c heating, and we also need to prepare for emergency responses.

[–] Lugh 2 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

I'm convinced many of his biggest hypers/fanboys are all in on Musk stocks & that's a lot to do with why he gets the free ride he does with so many. Almost all the media connected to Silicon Valley/VC culture has the same problem too. Everyone selling everyone else hype and bullshit.

[–] Lugh 3 points 8 months ago

They are supposed to be far more stable.

[–] Lugh 2 points 8 months ago

The whole point of this instance is 'evidence-based speculation about the future'. It's fine to put up your own opinions about things, with supporting arguments, for debate.

It doesn't suggest that they are correct, merely that they are topics for discussion. Lots of scientific papers suggest jumping off points for other ideas and concepts, that aren't referenced in the original paper.

[–] Lugh 2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

There is relatively little research modeling asteroid ejecta dispersing throughout the galaxy. I'm really surprised this isn't researched more.

https://astrobiology.com/2022/02/on-possible-life-dispersal-patterns-beyond-the-earth.html

[–] Lugh 2 points 8 months ago (2 children)

false negatives

I don't get your logic here either. A false negative would have zero implications for anyone. It would have no legal standing or relevance.

[–] Lugh 4 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (3 children)

It is possible that the cyanobacteria performing better under the k-star light is just a coincidence. It's surprises me science hasn't got a better handle on the numbers around Panspermia. If we know material from other planetary systems outside our solar system gets to Earth, surely the burning question is how much, and from how many different planetary systems?

Also, looked at the other way around, there is another question. How much Earth asteroid ejecta is getting to k-star planetary systems in our galaxy? The obvious follow-on finding is that such ejecta might easily be spreading life to such places.

[–] Lugh 3 points 8 months ago (6 children)

Surely highlighting 5 million out of 24 million is more efficient than checking them all?

[–] Lugh 5 points 8 months ago (10 children)

Even though we often (rightly) focus on our AI worries, this is evidence AI can also do society great good too.

[–] Lugh 7 points 8 months ago (2 children)

The research in question grew a common plant - garden cress, and a cyanobacteria under a simulated K dwarf light spectrum. This has never been tested before, somewhat surprisingly, the garden cress grew as normally as it would from our G-type star's sunlight, but the cyanobacteria grew even better.

Panspermia is the idea that life throughout the universe is seeded from elsewhere. We can easily see the mechanism for this in our own solar system. Asteroid ejecta from Mars has made its way to Earth many times. We can assume the opposite has happened with Earth's material traveling throughout our solar system. Indeed, if we found life on Mars or Europa, the first question would be if it arose independently or was seeded via Panspermia.

This discovery bolsters the idea that the same thing is happening throughout the galaxy. It would be harder for such asteroid ejecta to escape the gravitational pull of its local solar system, but it does happen. Thus dust from other planets outside the solar system reaches our Earth, and we can assume vice versa.

This is why this discovery is so intriguing. K-type stars are common, making up 12% of all stars. Not only that, they are unusually long-lived and stable. Gliese 86, a K-type star that is 35 light years from us, is 10 billion years old, more than twice the age of our own solar system.

If cyanobacteria perform better under a K-type star's light - did they originally evolve there?

It is possible we are operating under completely incorrect assumptions, both about the origin of life on our own planet, and the search for life on others. Most research into the origin of life here assumes it arose independently. Perhaps, it is much more reasonable to think Panspermia is the most likely explanation.

Secondly, the search for extraterrestrial life assumes we are looking for something that arose independently elsewhere. Perhaps, that is wrong too. Maybe it is more reasonable to think microbial life is common everywhere in the universe but primarily has spread by Panspermia, with who knows how few times it has arisen independently.

[–] Lugh 10 points 8 months ago (2 children)

I think part of this increase may be down to an increased awareness of mental health issues. Mental health problems that were not understood, or ignored in decades past, are much more clearly seen now.

However, it seems undeniable that life has gotten worse across the Western world for younger generations. Economic independence of any kind is impossible without going into soul-crushing debt first. In many ways, it bears similarity to the indentured servitude of the past. Meanwhile, you get lectured by a generation that grew up with free education, cheap rents, and jobs that were easy to get and could support a whole family.

If much of this is caused by economic factors, will the soon-to-be widespread automation of more of the economy make things better or worse? My guess is that in the short term, they will get worse. Until we arrive at what new economic model follows.

Driving jobs are about to disappear to self-driving autonomous vehicles. They were one of the last refuges of the less educated to have a degree of economic independence, especially for less educated young men. The mental health consequences of that category of job disappearing forever may be enormous.

[–] Lugh 5 points 8 months ago (1 children)

These are going to be great for lots of types of workers, especially in nursing and elder care. More broadly, I wonder will there come a day where human workers will need them, to compete with actual robot workers?

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