Lugh

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Here's a full version of Mr. Dalio's words, and below is a summary. Also, he's written several books on this topic, more info here.

While tariffs and their market impacts dominate headlines, the deeper, more critical issue is the breakdown of the global monetary, political, and geopolitical order—a rare, once-in-a-lifetime shift driven by unsustainable debt, inequality, and deglobalization.

Key forces at play:

Monetary/Economic Order Collapse: Unsustainable debt imbalances (e.g., U.S. overborrowing, China over-lending) are forcing a restructuring of global trade and capital flows.

Domestic Political Fragmentation: Rising inequality and populism are eroding democracies, paving the way for autocratic leadership.

Geopolitical Power Shifts: The U.S.-led multilateral order is fading, replaced by unilateralism and conflict (trade wars, tech wars).

Climate & Tech Disruptions: Natural disasters and AI will further destabilize economies and international relations.

Why focus on these? Tariffs are symptoms, not causes. History shows such imbalances lead to depressions, wars, and new orders. Policymakers must prepare for radical measures (debt defaults, capital controls) as the old system unravels.

 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard lays out the likely steps in how this will happen in this article.

He says Trump will take direct control of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. This, and his global tariff war, and tax cuts for the rich, will stoke huge levels of inflation in the US. Think of Erdogan's Turkey for comparison.

By this point, the foreigners who finance US government debt by buying Treasury bonds will start to lose confidence in the dollar as a currency.

This crisis will force money printing (quantitative easing) and capital controls, both furthering the currency crisis and perhaps leading to hyperinflation.

I hope there are sunny uplands for the world ahead, and the transition to get to them isn't too long. We were always going to have to endure economic pain as we transitioned to a world where robots/AI can do all work. I suspect that pain is going to start sooner than we expected.

[–] Lugh 1 points 9 months ago (1 children)

The logic with taxis is that rather than everyone have an individual car, people use them as needed, so 1 car serves dozens of people.

[–] Lugh 5 points 9 months ago

Open source model weights are a step towards public ownership over this new means of production.

I agree. People talk a lot about UBI. It makes sense in principle, but I wonder how about the political likelihood of making it happen.

Meanwhile, as you say, paradoxically Capitalism keeps making Marx's 'means of production' with AI and robotics more likely to be in wide and public ownership.

[–] Lugh 2 points 9 months ago

Singapore's 6 million people live in an island country only 12 times bigger than Manhattan Island (which for contrast houses 1.6 million people). This makes them an ideal early-adopter for Level 4 self-driving vehicles. They work in geo-fenced areas that are well-mapped, which describes the entirety of this tiny country.

Level 4 robot-taxis, needing little human oversight, finally had their moment in 2024. Commercial services are now in operation in several US and Chinese cities. Their global expansion will be rapid from now on, and 2025 might mark the year they enter wider public consciousness.

[–] Lugh 3 points 9 months ago (5 children)

But a domain expert like a doctor or an accountant is way much more accurate

Actually, not so.

If the AI is trained on narrow data sets, then it beats humans. There's quite a few examples of this recently with different types of medical expertise.

[–] Lugh 9 points 9 months ago

Australia is a paradox in the renewables transition. It is already at 35% for renewable electricity, and has targeted 82% for 2030. Yet it's still a major exporter of coal. Australia exported $127.4 billion worth of coal in 2022-23, and its economy is highly dependent on mining of all types.

It doesn't have much homegrown manufacturing and is committed to eliminating tariffs on Chinese imports. This means of Western countries it might be among the quickest to abandon ICE cars, as it will have access to all the super-cheap Chinese EV's. Especially as it's rolling out infrastructure like this.

[–] Lugh 4 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

I still see even the more advanced AIs make simple errors on facts all the time....

[–] Lugh 2 points 9 months ago (1 children)

True. It's what keeps me optimistic. If we can get through the decay of the old world intact, there's a world of post-scarcity plenty ahead.

[–] Lugh 5 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I find they are good for creative tasks. Picture and music generation, but also ideas - say, give me 10 possible character names for a devious butler in a 1930s murder mystery novel.

But yes, terrible for facts, even rudimentary ones. I get so many errors with this approach its effectively useless.

However, I can see on narrower training data, say genetics, this might be less of a problem.

[–] Lugh 1 points 9 months ago

There's a few ways they say it may help, this one seems the main one.

We foresee a future in which LLMs serve as forward-looking generative models of the scientific literature. LLMs can be part of larger systems that assist researchers in determining the best experiment to conduct next. One key step towards achieving this vision is demonstrating that LLMs can identify likely results. For this reason, BrainBench involved a binary choice between two possible results. LLMs excelled at this task, which brings us closer to systems that are practically useful. In the future, rather than simply selecting the most likely result for a study, LLMs can generate a set of possible results and judge how likely each is. Scientists may interactively use these future systems to guide the design of their experiments.

[–] Lugh 1 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

It’s only open source if the training data is and it probably isn’t, is it?

I don't know, though DeepSeek talk of theirs being "fully" open-source.

Part of the advantage of doing this (apart from helping bleed your rivals dry) is to get the benefit of others working on your model. So it makes sense to maximise openness and access.

[–] Lugh 1 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

I lived in Hong Kong for a few years. It has superlative public transport, and the (human) taxis were reasonably priced. However, as its so densely populated, I can only see cars getting so much traction. After a certain point the traffic jams are unavoidable.

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