Lugh

joined 1 year ago
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Further Info from Wietze Post, a South African renewables provider.

Why load shedding has disappeared in South Africa.

Since March, South Africa’s myriad rooftop solar plants have terminated load shedding. Before, solar reduced load shedding.

Compared to last year (and 2022), SA's demand for Eskom's power has steadily declined since ±Sept 2023.

Daily peak demand is on a declining trend.

SA's daily peak demand is now about 1½GW-2½GW lower than last year. The gap vs the previous year is increasing.

The evening peak demand is trending down faster than the morning peak. I expect the morning peak to exceed the evening peak for the first time this summer (2024/ 2025).

Solar plant and battery capacity are expanding. The monthly compound growth rate is 4,6%-5%.

During the day, solar power is replacing Eskom power. That gives Eskom breathing room to replenish its hydro reserves. It also takes the pressure off hasty maintenance. Thus, they can do more thorough maintenance. Their plant operational readiness has improved.

Eskom's diesel turbines have run below-budgeted levels during the last four weeks.

The reason for load shedding's disappearance is not as bandied about by politicians. It has not stopped due to Eskom running their gas turbines on overdrive. The turbines do run sometimes, but usually only a few plants during the peak, if at all.

Solar generation is the prime reason for the decreased load shedding. SA’s evening peak demand has declined due to your solar batteries.

During the day, solar generation reduces Eskom’s demand (about 20% of the national load). Solar power also charges the batteries.

From late afternoon, solar households run on battery power. That usually carries them through to the early morning. Then, household power demand shows up again for Eskom. The home starts drawing energy from the grid. Verify my points by checking your PV plant's daily consumption curves.

As morning solar power increases, grid demand goes down. Consequently, Eskom does not ‘see’ the household again until the following morning. Add up 100s of thousands of households, and that makes a significant difference to the Eskom load.

East-facing panels generate the most valuable energy. Those who've had the foresight to install East-facing panels have the earliest benefit. If you also have West-facing panels, you will make the most efficient use of your battery.

‘Overload’ your inverter with East and West-facing PV panels. Then you’ll get the cheapest energy (kWh) and most stable power supply (kW).

I recommend you read up on “Wright’s Law” and the “Solar Duck Curve”.

 

People often catastrophize about the potential for near misses with large asteroids. In reality, far more deadly "near misses" are happening with H5N1 bird flu, and they don't seem to be taken as seriously.

When mammals get the H5N1 bird influenza virus the prognosis is grim. Often with up to 50% mortality rates. Fortunately, although mammals (including humans) have gotten H5N1 from proximity to birds, the virus has not mutated to spread from mammal to mammal - so far. Yet it seems like we are constantly rolling the dice in the world's unluckiest lottery, and it may happen someday.

The latest gamble is being played out in the US farming sector. H5N1 has now been found in cows in 8 different states. Several cats on these farms have died from H5N1, probably via ingesting unpasteurized milk. This week US government officials have said material from the H5N1 strain, which is causing the outbreak, had been detected in milk sold in shops.

In a world with cultured meat from animal cells, and no farm animals, this problem would be greatly lessened. Especially in China, where animal farming sanitary standards are low. Is this all a reason to speed up a transition to meat via cultured cells?

NATURE.COM ARTICLE WITH FURTHER INFORMATION

[–] Lugh 0 points 8 months ago (2 children)

, sound and sound engineering, sometimes CGI, the location

If you look at Sora now, it seems obvious within a couple of years it will be able to produce TV and movies, indistinguishable from today's human produced ones, entirely with AI. I'm sure good human storytelling will still command attention. However shows like "Game of Thrones" that HBO spent over a billion to make, will be able to be produced by AI alone.

[–] Lugh 0 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (6 children)

That's missing the point. Yes, you could have made a version of Game of Thrones with a smartphone & your friends in costumes made from thrift store clothes, but there's a reason everyone wants the one HBO spent a billion dollars to make. Now (or very soon) that advantage will disappear.

With generative video, such as Sora is demonstrating, everyone will be able to make the same standards as Hollywood. Its financial and skills clout won't count for anything, or confer any advantages any more.

[–] Lugh 3 points 8 months ago (11 children)

A small Kickstarter-funded startup called Rabbit got attention with a similar concept recently, but they are a minnow compared to Deutsche Telekom.

I suspect AI will eventually come to be the predominant OS of all our computing in all our devices. To displace apps, all that is necessary is AIs trained to operate each one. After that, presumably new protocols will enable AI to interact with services and tasks. That's not all people use smartphones for though. How will they get AI to scroll through social media?

There are a lot of incumbents like Google & Facebook relying on us to stay doing things the old way. News like this from Deutsche Telekom must make them nervous.

[–] Lugh 8 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (9 children)

Technobabble detectors reading very high

Interesting response. Do you have some particular physics qualification that gives you confidence to say this in response to the Physics Professor at Tne Leibniz Institute of Photonic Technology who is making these claims?

[–] Lugh 2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

all of this is in fact very power costly, … and is likely to remain so.

I'm not sure how you arrived at that conclusion. The direct quotes from the actual researchers say the opposite.

[–] Lugh 8 points 8 months ago

One day, some smart person will figure out how to do a search engine that excludes AI generated crap, and it won't be Google.

[–] Lugh 17 points 8 months ago (3 children)

Silicon computing is starting to run up against hard limits when it comes to energy usage. Bitcoin mining is currently using 2% of the USA's energy. Data Centers are projected to be using a third of Ireland's electricity output by 2026.

However it seems next-generation solutions are on the horizon, and this is one of them. Transitioning computing to energy-efficient new technologies is another front in the war to slow climate change.

[–] Lugh 12 points 9 months ago (13 children)

When some people see news like this they try and reassure themselves that automation has always created new jobs. You don't see secretarial typists or horse carriage riders anymore, right?

The flaw in this argument is that the AI & robots will be able to do all the new jobs too, but they'll just cost a few pennies where humans were used to getting paid a dollar.

All the people who still think everything is hunky-dory with this and we've nothing to worry about remind me of videos of people on the beaches in 2004 watching the Indian Ocean tsunami coming in, and not realizing until the very last minute how serious things were about to get.

[–] Lugh 70 points 9 months ago (28 children)

The Chinese automaker BYD reminds me of the famous phrase attributed to the sci-fi writer William Gibson - "The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed."

Future EV cars will be cheap to own and run. Self-driving tech will lower insurance costs. You can charge them with your home solar setup if you want. They'll last far longer with lower maintenance costs thanks to simple electric engines with few moving parts. As their construction gets more roboticized it will lower their costs further. The batteries that make up a huge chunk of their current costs are falling in price too. CATL, the world’s largest EV battery maker, is set to cut costs in half by mid 2024.

Some people still think gasoline and ICE cars have a long life ahead of them, and don't realize the industries behind both are dead men walking.

[–] Lugh 40 points 9 months ago (18 children)

Some people are skeptical this technology can ever work, but it appears CASIC's Phase 1 testing in a 2km tunnel has given them the confidence to proceed to Phase 2 testing in a 60km long tunnel.

Chinese railway engineering leads the world so I have a hunch that if any nation can pull this off, then it's China. However, lots of questions remain. A back-of-the-envelope calculation says that to achieve those speeds in the 2km test tunnel deceleration would have been about 3G. That's the same as a rocket at lift-off and not many people's idea of comfort.

[–] Lugh 7 points 9 months ago (5 children)

AI like Sora won't just affect film & TV industry jobs, but video game production, wider 3D work, and VFX.

I wonder when the paradox is going to sink in with more people. Sam Altman and the like want to tap investors for trillions, yet they are a classic example of a Trojan Horse. Being welcomed with open arms by the very people their actions will destroy. We won't be living in a world with high stock market valuations and investors with trillions to throw around when the creative sector of all nation's economies has become a mass unemployment wasteland.

[–] Lugh 1 points 9 months ago (3 children)

Renewables are way, way cheaper. Nuclear is finished. I'm sick of hearing its supporters never ending excuses.

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