Lugh

joined 1 year ago
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Japanese firm TDK says new material allows solid-state batteries to reach an energy density of 1,000 Wh/L, which is around 100 times more than their existing conventional solid-state batteries.

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submitted 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) by Lugh to c/avs
 

You're the first people to join us since we set up. It's great to have you along. If you have any requests or suggestions please just say so. It would be great if we could get you some new subscribers from the 20 million people on r/futurology on Reddit. If you have any bright Ideas for making that work please let us know. We haven't had much luck with that so far. Most of the people in c/futurology are from elsewhere in the fediverse. We've had pinned posts in the subreddit that have been read by thousands, but it never seems to translate into many people singing up.

[–] Lugh 14 points 6 months ago (36 children)

I'm surprised more people aren't aware of how rapidly robotics are currently developing. The same LLM AI that is capturing public attention with generative art and ChatGPT is equally revolutionizing robots.

Here's an illustration of it. This is the closest I've seen yet of a mass-market-priced and extremely capable robot that could sell in tens of millions around the world. This looks close to the type of robot you could bring to many workplaces and get to do a wide range of unskilled work. How long before we see fast food places fully staffed by robots like these? At the current rate of development that seems only 2 or 3 years away.

[–] Lugh 15 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (3 children)

If advanced alien civilizations exist, then searching for them via their electromagnetic radiation techno-signatures seems an obvious route.

That said, I've never been very convinced by the idea of Dyson spheres. Surely if you were that technologically advanced you could think of cleverer ways to generate energy than building some cyberpunk structure that was bigger than a star.

[–] Lugh 20 points 6 months ago (15 children)

There's a strong push-back against AI regulation within some quarters. Predictably, the issue seems to have split along polarized political lines. With right-wing leaning people not favoring regulation. They see themselves as 'Accelerationist' and those with concerns about AI as 'Doomers'.

Meanwhile the unaddressed problems mount. AI can already deceive us, even when we design it not to do so, and we don't why.

[–] Lugh 5 points 6 months ago (1 children)

I'm interested to see how this develops. If this is a base model other companies can freely acquire with no license costs or restrictions, then it might quickly expand the range of humanoid robots available.

I'm expecting China to take the lead in manufacturing "cheap" humanoid robots, and exporting them. There are demos of humanoid robots training themselves to do simple household tasks. How soon before you can buy a Humanoid Robot Maid in the shops?

[–] Lugh 22 points 6 months ago (4 children)

Current LLM models tend to extract "best practice" responses a lot. They can statistically guess the correct responses to things, because it's what experts cite the most. I wonder if that is what is behind this? As the authors of the research point out, the significance here is not the AI's appearance of superior intelligence, it's that it's yet another example of how people may be influenced by AI.

[–] Lugh 6 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (2 children)

I wonder how long it will be before we see people purposely create these so they can influence their descendants. There might be a future where people have "relationships" with a collection of long dead people.

[–] Lugh 6 points 6 months ago (22 children)

The logical follow on from this is that EV owners should have cheaper car insurance. With far fewer moving parts they will also have much cheaper maintenance costs. Added to that EVs are cheaper to buy. China has reached the point where 50% of new car sales are EVs much quicker than anyone expected. Most people thought that was years away, but we're already there. How soon before people start talking about a "death spiral" when it comes to gasoline cars?

Relevant Data

Per 1,000 vehicles of 3 year old cars

ICE 6.4

BEV 2.8

The ADAC even noted a growing lead for electric cars in recent years. The analysis was based on the more than 3.5 million call-outs made by ADAC breakdown services last year

[–] Lugh 3 points 6 months ago (2 children)

Solar thermal propulsion is the idea of using solar energy to heat a propellant and using that energy for thrust. If it worked as hoped it could be very useful in LEO and beyond. Portal Space Systems, the start-up here, points out there are already plenty of use cases for it now moving satellites into different orbits. This idea has been around since the 1950s, and could even be described as low-tech (it could work with mirrors heating water), but the logistics and infrastructure to support it might not be so simple, or economically viable.

[–] Lugh 9 points 7 months ago

China already getting to 50%+1 for EV new car sales is way ahead of most predictions. Most people thought that was still a few years away, but it seems events are moving faster.

China is also exporting this speedy transition to other countries. Economics of scale are kicking in with EV manufacturers now, and the cars are getting cheaper and cheaper to make.

[–] Lugh 10 points 7 months ago

I suspect the rest of the world will be relying more and more on decentralized grids and renewables too as the decades roll on. They are cheaper and easier to deploy, but crucially more climate change resilient.

The other backstory here is China. They've brought down the price of solar enough to make this happen.

[–] Lugh 63 points 7 months ago (11 children)

NASA really is stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to its lunar plans. Its SLS system is a disaster, but pork barrel politics means it can't ditch it. So it lives on, zombie-like, to suck the life and money out of better options.

Meanwhile, it's placed all its eggs in a SpaceX basket. That company is run by someone who routinely exaggerates timelines for delivery and fails to meet them. Guess what? It's happening again. A commenter on the OP article sums up what SpaceX has to do before humans can go back to the Moon.

  • Re-light Starship engines
  • Achieve stable orbit
  • Dock with another Starship
  • Transfer propellant
  • Use transferred propellant
  • Dock with Orion and/or Dragon
  • Design a life support system for a volume much larger than Dragon
  • Build life support system
  • Test life support
  • Achieve escape velocity for TLI
  • Demo propulsive landing on Luna
  • Demo takeoff from Luna after sitting idle
  • Dock with Gateway (?) up and down
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