this post was submitted on 25 Aug 2025
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72
A third of the U.S. economy is already in a recession or at high risk, and another third is stagnating according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. (fortune.com)
submitted 2 weeks ago by yogthos@lemmygrad.ml to c/news@hexbear.net
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[–] came_apart_at_Kmart@hexbear.net 41 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

it bothers me that the metrics/KPI for "The Economy" in the US are never really straight forward, like they are specifically developed to tell a story of reliability and strength. like how the unemployment rate doesn't count a shitload of actually unemployed humans, or how GDP "growth" is this tortured metric to make disastrous situations seem fundamentally OK.

like it's all predicated on the dogma that saying things are actually bad will make the economic conditions worse as "investors" lose confidence, because the whole system is reliant on the psychology and feelings of maybe 50-100k capitalist pricks with all the deeds, assets, and cash looking to grow their already giant piece of the pie.

so when we actually are officially in a recession according to the latest definitions, it usually means things have been fucked up for multiple years, at least.

if government economists in the US had to actually post clean, straight forward numbers for things like unemployment, vacancies, and aggregated labor/material/debt/rent costs alongside revenues over time, I think it would completely blow the basic support for capitalism among americans to shit.

[–] SnuggleButt@hexbear.net 16 points 2 weeks ago

Yes that’s exactly it. Business/investor confidence is the most important thing and crucial to capitalism’s survival because the flow of capital/money, being decentralized in a capitalistic society, is controlled solely by elites (the business/investor class). If they get spooked at all, not only will they crater the economy (since all jobs are dependent on them feeling perky enough to hire people, since they don’t actually give a shit about anything long term), but they also have the opportunity to flee with their money to foreign countries (because preventing capital flight is bad cause it’s not like that wealth was all made off the backs of people in their country you know? (Obviously ignore modern wealth extraction, but for most of history it’s domestic)). And they will flee if they really need to, even if their wealth is tied to equity, they can just slowly unwind their position/reposition their wealth external to the land they helped extract from

But on a more serious note almost all metrics the government handles, the number one priority is maintaining business confidence

[–] Infamousblt@hexbear.net 13 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

I don't think most Americans care about the stats or the figures. Most Americans care about "can I pay my bills" and as the economy continues to collapse despite these massaged numbers saying it's not, more and more Americans are going to realize what's happening

[–] came_apart_at_Kmart@hexbear.net 11 points 2 weeks ago

I'm not saying "most" Americans, I'm saying the professionals, the administrators, the educators, the people who Howard Zinn referred to as "the guardians" of the establishment. people who buffer everyday against the tensions from the great masses of the working class people being ground between gears, and use their position to justify or excuse it's failures to those they exercise some power over as bureaucrats or functionaries.

basically , the very people for whom the smoke and mirrors of the current economic metrics and KPI are generated to soothe and give the impression that this system is something other than what it is.

[–] spectre@hexbear.net 9 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

feelings of maybe 50-100k capitalist pricks with all the deeds, assets

You aren't wrong, since there is inequality within the inequality, but remember that "the 1 percent" is a couple million people depending on how you tally it up.

[–] came_apart_at_Kmart@hexbear.net 9 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

I was definitely thinking more along the lines of the 1/10th of 1 percent, whom the other 9/10th operate in the wake of.

[–] spectre@hexbear.net 3 points 2 weeks ago

Right, right

[–] Euergetes@hexbear.net 22 points 2 weeks ago

the only thing capital figured out from centuries of boom and bust has been how to launder recessions and crises of profitability

even on the left i feel like a lot of people are waiting for "the" crash, i'm starting to think it's never going to be allowed to be perceived that way again, and popular consciousness resulting from past crashes won't materialize

[–] DragonBallZinn@hexbear.net 22 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Can we just admit we’re in a recession already? Hell, we have been since ‘08. The only difference is that it’s a selective recession that just so happens to take away jobs, lower pay, and raise rents. You know, all “good” things if Wall Street is to be believed.

[–] stink@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 2 weeks ago

You used to get by no matter where you lived by working any kind of job. Life wasn't glamorous but hey you can still afford rent.

My dad was talking about how when he came to America in the 80s he worked at McDonalds and it paid his way through New York rent and college tuition.

I know people now who can't afford that kind of lifestyle with advanced degrees. They told Millennials to get a degree and they wouldn't have to worry about finding a job. They told Gen Z to get a STEM degree and they wouldn't have to worry about finding a job. They're telling Gen Alpha to make a startup at 16 and cure cancer before 18 so they can even qualify for a STEM degree with no guarantees they'll even find a job.

It's all tumbling down!

[–] prole@hexbear.net 11 points 2 weeks ago

Yeah, only a third...