These are not serious peace terms. This is a 1,000 year enslavement project. And a historic opporutnity to neuter Russia's malign tendencies. Might be best to stall and keep bleeding them. : ukraine

[–] realitista@lemmus.org 41 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

Oh absolutely, do another year or two. Russia has used pretty much everything in the tank at this point. Once they are defeated militarily, they will never come back for more.

As counterintuitive as it seems, it will save lives in the end. Russia won't stop until they are beaten so badly that they can't get back up. Imagine if Germany had been stopped at the Sudetenland because all of Europe and the US came in and fought for Czechia. No WWII.

It would actually be an affront to everyone who gave their lives defending Ukraine just to capitulate right when they are on the verge of turning the tides.

[–] DeceasedPassenger@lemmy.world 17 points 6 days ago (4 children)

Russia has used pretty much everything in the tank at this point.

I'm genuinely curious if you have sources to back this, because I want it to be true, but I also feel like I've been hearing it for two years. Makes me feel bleak about the truth of the statement. I would love to see a light at the end of the tunnel, if you have one.

[–] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 1 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago)

There is light everywhere, but it does't come like you wish it would in a movie, with the detonation of the Death Star, or a fleet of A-10's arriving over the horizon to rip the enemy vanguard into strips of fruit leather to the soundtrack of Rock You Like A Hurricane

3 years on, Russia is an uber ride away from their starting points from territory they controlled a decade prior.
Their vast and utterly irreplaceable Soviet stockpile is gone
The Black Sea Fleet is effectively neutralized
Their strategic bomber fleet is vastly reduced
Their primary oil & gas export markets are dead
They are junior vassals to China going forward. No request from Beijing can be refused beyond this point.
The decades-old war chest of filthy oil & gas money is gone
The easiest oil and gas to extract has already been taken. Every barrel they make going forward is more expensive, requires expertise they lack and can no longer lease from other countries, and is of declining strategy importance going forward anyways.
The manufacture dates on Russia's stand off terror weaons show a hand-to-mouth production flow. As soon as things are made, they're fired at Ukraine. This means stockpiles are essentially empty.
During 2024, Russia lost more men than any other year of the war, and used less heavy equipment. The heavy stuff is gone, and even 70 years of loaf vans are becoming rare. The golf carts, motorcyles and donkeys are evidence of their declining power. It takes exponentially more flesh to achieve anything that heavy metal ought to have done. It's not sustainable for anyone. Even though their macho chest-thumping boasts that they are vast and bottomless, the only thing that actually is, is their brutality and lack of humanity.
Their A-50 AWACS-type fleet is functionally dead. They lost two of them last year, can't replace them.
During August, there are now gasoline shortages and rationing starting in the far flung territories. This effect at the consumer pumps will spread, especially if Ukraine keeps hitting facilities. The price of a gallon of gas in Russia is currently the same as it is in the U.S., except that Russian salaries are 20% of what american ones are. Translation - consumers are now feeling the pain paying 5x what an american does for gas. This is going to lead to runaway inflation as the cost of transporting goods rises due to fuel costs.
Their current strategy is to push small infiltration teams forward looking for weak spots. But they lack the reserves to exploit and reinforce those if they find them. Just last week we were hearing how there was a breakthrough of 15km north of Pokrovsk. Welll guess what - they couldn't reinforce it, the Ukrainians went in, cut them off and wiped them out. It was all posturing ahead of whatever that Alaskan boogaloo was with Trump.
Pushing small infiltration teams forward, only to be wiped out in a couple of days is not a great strategy for conquest. It's more like pest-control. Sure, there's mice or roaches around, but you're able to kill them given enough time, drones and perseverance
Ukraine, while suffering, is more than holding it's existential own against an alleged superpower. They haven't been drafting people under 24 yet. Their domestic capabilities are getting stronger and further reaching.

Russia is in an utterly disastrous military, economic and social situation. The ultimate proof is that they're stuck where they are, and can't seem to move forward in any meaningful way. This is it. This is all they can do. Ukraine isn't yet remotely desperate. They have many more cards to play, despite Trump's obedient insistence to the contrary. Ukraine's path to victory doesn't require full liberation of all territories yet. It would be wiser to keep bleeding Russia's dying war machine, and trade what are in the big picture, small pieces of land while Russia burns itself out in it's stubborn suicide.

Russia talks a lot about how good they are at war. Except - look at the history.

Crimean War. Lost. Their expansion really never recovered after this
Russo-Japanese War. Uttlery crushed.
WW1. Beaten so badly, that the entire system collapsed.
Polish-Russian War. Defeated.
WW2. Rolled back to Moscow, after being backstabbed by their Nazi allies. Without lend-lease and invasions of Italy and Normandy, there might not be a russian state west of the Urals.
Afghanistan. Rolled.
Chechnya 1. Rolled.

The last war Russia won on it's own, was against Sweden in the 17th century. The rest has all been punching down on tiny neighbour states and running internal ethnic cleansing. They're absolutely shit at war. The evidence is there. They keep dying in vast numbers, waiting for something to happen. Often, in the long view of history, that something is a revolution, or a collapse, or both. But autocracies seem stable, until they're not. This Death Festival is unsustainable for any country, even one with such depraved leadership as russia.

Their macho moron strategy of Horde War presumed that having crap compared to NATO gear was fine, as long as you had enough of it. They could roll from Poland to Portugal before the feckless pussies in the West could even muster the stones to respond. Right? Well - that clearly is not the case, given that they can't even subdue a presumed inferior race right next door with the bare minimum of logistics challenges. Their entire Way of War has turned out to be fairly worthless compared to drones and stubborn national resistance in Ukraine. FIghting a unified Europe is so utterly out of the question now. We aren't quite grateful enough to Ukraine for what they've done. It was, of course, in their own service and they didn't get the support they deserved. We're trading Ukrainian blood for democratic liberty.

It all sucks. It sucks that they chose to do this. This is a brutal, disgusting war of hubris driven by vile gangster ghouls trying to get a little bit richer. But the divorce is final. There will be a Ukraine with territorial integrity and no delusions about Russia's malign nature going forward, if there ever was. And Russia will continue to try corrosive mischief for a few more decades yet before imploding into a wasteland plagued by infighting, casual ethnic cleansing and corporate warlodism.

Putin's legacy will be maybe the worst Russian - ever. Which is saying something. There are no upsides to Russia going forward, especially if their orange puppet croaks before extracting some kind of bad peace that the military situation on the ground doens't justify. It just takes time and won't come in a super satisfying endpoint. Ukraine wins by suriving. Russia loses in every scenario. They've lost The Very Future and will be a dead zombie society going forward.

[–] scholar@lemmy.world 21 points 6 days ago (3 children)

Russia had large reserves of money at the start of the war which allowed them to ride out the initial sanctions. They also massively pivoted their econony to produce military equipment because of the amount of equipment they were losing. Neither of those are sustainable for long and the only cards they have left are (greatly discounted) oil sales to China and India, and conscription (which would be incredibly unpopular) which is why they have been using North Korean soldiers.

All of this is like a hole in Russia's fuel tank, which would be ok if they could finish the war quickly, but their advance has been so slow that the frontlines are mere kilometers from where they were two years ago and if this doesn't change they will run out of steam and be unable to continue.

[–] realitista@lemmus.org 22 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

That and Ukraine is literally blowing up their fuel tanks and fuel lines at an unprecedented rate, greatly reducing the revenue of the country.

[–] StupidBrotherInLaw@lemmy.world 18 points 6 days ago (1 children)

The people of Ukraine are a bunch of fucking heroes. Putin picked the wrong fight.

[–] realitista@lemmus.org 15 points 6 days ago

They are saving democracy and the rule of law in all of Europe. If anyone should be in the EU and NATO it should be them. I hope to see if in my lifetime.

[–] DeceasedPassenger@lemmy.world 5 points 6 days ago

That does make a lot of sense, I guess I 'knew' those things but didn't quite put it together. Yeah I can't imagine conscription would cause anything except some sort of internal uprising, seen plenty of stories about existing recruits clearly having zero desire to be there/realizing they're the aggressor and not defending their homeland. Hoping their zero-steam day comes sooner rather than later. Thank you for the summary.

[–] DSN9@lemmy.ml 4 points 6 days ago

It won't surprise me when the Russian line collapses or Putin is suddenly dead. When, not if.

[–] realitista@lemmus.org 11 points 6 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (2 children)

You'd need to go to many sources. But also remember that these kind of things happen "slowly at first, then all at once". There's no way to tell whether it will be tomorrow or in 2 years but the signs are all there, same as during the fall of the Soviet Union which took everyone by surprise though the signs were there.

Watch some videos from covert cabal about military stockpiles. Read about Russia's sovereign wealth fund, true inflation rate, bankrupcy rates, bank withdrawal laws and other monetary protections (money expatriation, etc), oil export restrictions, oil rationing within Russia, Putin's theft from the private sector, and rate of printing money.

I wish I could give you one source for all of this, but I spend probably 1-2 hours every day getting updates on the war and it comes from everywhere. Here are a couple videos to start:

https://youtu.be/Go8Qm2X3Jx0

https://youtu.be/_EHpGXbOrY8

https://youtu.be/K8CcuVCDEUw

[–] DeceasedPassenger@lemmy.world 2 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

Thank you, I appreciate the starting point. Makes sense it would be hard to precisely predict.

edit: I definitely prefer multiple sources anyway, no worries there.

[–] realitista@lemmus.org 3 points 6 days ago

I chose those videos because usually they cite their sources. But I can send you tons more if you want.

[–] chloroken@lemmy.ml -4 points 6 days ago (2 children)

"Do you have any sources for your claim that Russia is collapsing?"

"Well, here are some YouTube videos..."

US liberals have less than zero geopolitical self-awareness.

[–] realitista@lemmus.org 5 points 6 days ago (1 children)

I've read literally thousands of articles on this particular subject. I'm not going to write him a thesis paper. I chose those videos because they tend to cite their sources and can be a good jumping off point.

[–] chloroken@lemmy.ml -4 points 5 days ago

When asked for a source, you link to YouTube videos that "tend to cite their sources"?

Also, can you describe what a "thesis paper" is to your understanding?

[–] DeceasedPassenger@lemmy.world 4 points 6 days ago (1 children)

What does geopolitical self-awareness have to do with youtube videos?

[–] realitista@lemmus.org 3 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Just another .ml tankie butthurt about Russia slowly going under. TBF I'm not sure the connection between modern Russia and communism, but somehow they still shill for them, probably because they all a big troll farm for the CCP.

[–] chloroken@lemmy.ml -2 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Hi. I'm an American. Does that surprise you?

And, Russia isn't slowly going under. You're confused and easily motivated by propaganda.

[–] DeceasedPassenger@lemmy.world 1 points 3 days ago

Okay, do you have any sources to back up that claim?

[–] Valmond@lemmy.world 5 points 5 days ago

I've heard the tank running out summer 2025 since I guess late 2023.

Check out perun and those who count tanks and more in russian storage from satellite images if you're interested.

Just a nitpick: they are never running out totally, they can make a handfull of tanks a month (some new, some refurbished from the last ones in a very bad condition), I have heard number around one or two a day.

The russian economy is also similar, their wealth fund is some months from running out (this year), and Ukraine sanctions oil refineries quite heavily, but they'll never totally run out, it's just going to get worse and worse and worse.

We just have to stay with Ukraine, and it'll be a win.

Slava Ukraine!

[–] khannie@lemmy.world 28 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Yeah absolutely fuck giving up highly defensible land. Sudetenland part two.

[–] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 35 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

Totally. Zero chance Ukraine agrees to this. They would be giving up 250k citizens and 7000 sqare miles that has hundreds of billions in resources in them. You want it Russia? Come and take it.

While this is a historic and devastating tragedy for Ukraine, it's helpful to remember this means Ukraine has already won the war. Russia can never do this type of invasion again, their Soviet stockpile is gone, the war chest is spent, they are a pariah for the next several decades. They are in terminal demographic decline, and they will not be able to re-arm before Putin dies to fight a war of this scale again. It's all blackmail, corrosive misinformation and political mischief for them past this point. Their primary export market for oil and gas are dead, they have become China's vassal, and have assembled a crappy coalition of corrupt allies who only run on bribes and are of limited diplomatic use. They lost Syria, they've lost Iran's proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. They've lost the Black Sea Fleet. They've lost much of their strategic bomber fleet. Once he falls, there will be infighting, as there ALWAYS is when Russian emperors die.

It's kind of comforting to know Putin will die before he sets foot in Kyiv. In many ways, you can consider this the last war of the 20th century. The great, if not-quite-as-envisioned revenge project of the dead idea of the Soviet Union.

[–] khannie@lemmy.world 13 points 6 days ago

What a wonderful, incredibly well put together summary. I feel like we're down to political games to maintain US support in order to bleed out either the Russian economy or desire to keep losing sons on a foolish invasion for the vanity of an old dictator.

[–] PixelatedSaturn@lemmy.world 10 points 6 days ago (2 children)

I think people should not be so obsessed with this, of course they are not serious terms. In reality they haven't event changed from the one that were rejected. They aren't even terms, just capitulation. There is nothing there.

But people are dying. Still better to have a line of discussion then not.

[–] Mika@sopuli.xyz 11 points 6 days ago (1 children)

The discussion is only continued to show Trump that russia is not serious about peace.

russia would need to end the war fairy soon, but at this point in time they still feel like they can do more, thus negotiations are delayed and met with unserious demands -- many of which Trump just didn't understand lmao, like this whole discussion about EU troops in Ukraine after ceasefire, but russia meant "russian & chinese troops, and only if russia agrees" kind of deal, mentioning old 2022 "negotiations".

[–] PixelatedSaturn@lemmy.world 2 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Trump does that a lot, he gets in the news, gets "the deal", what happens later when they start to correct him is no longer first page news and he can say they went back on the deal. And sometimes everyone just goes with it. Not sure if it's strategy, his narcissism or stupidity/dementia.

But like you said, Russia feel like they can do more and it seems they can. Large scale drone attacks are getting bigger and bigger and Ukrainian casualties are getting bigger and bigger. They are unable to defend, I doubt any western weapon can do that right now, even if they get a few more patriots and irises. Russia has some marginal success also on the battlefield.

It's not a good situation. Might be years before Russian economy starts to hurt enough for them to think of an end to this, if at all.

[–] Mika@sopuli.xyz 5 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Correct on threat assessment, but it's not about drone attacks only. Ukraine is better at finding out some new solutions (action from businesses + volunteers + low rank combatants), russia is better at copying success and scaling on a system level (government vertical works faster).

Recent success on the battlefield is them scaling anti-pilot measures. Recent success denial is collaboration between the best Ukrainian battalions.

But I disagree on economic assessment. Point of economy getting shredded is close. I'd say something is highly likely to happen in a span of a year. It would be faster if USA did play their role and sanction oil/gas, like the thing they stated to with India (which EU did, but USA frozen for now).

After all, russia isn't limitless. It's their core strategy to make themselves look like so. They had deep reserves of artillery, tanks, currency+gold, aviation, fleet - all of this is getting thinner. Like they rarely use tanks today. But you can't do the same with money.

[–] PixelatedSaturn@lemmy.world 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Mostly I agree. But on the material side, like you said, they aren't using tanks anymore, just infantry, because that works for them. They are burning through their soldiers and their salaries, but they have a lot more. I have no way to judge it, but I've mostly heard they are fine for maybe two years. But after that they can do another selective mobilization that will be enough for another year and so on. We can't rely on them running out of anything. Same with the drones, they will build more and more faster. I don't see a way to stop that, even with Ukrainian long-range drones. You can't stop 1000 drones/day each at another apartment building.

Not to mention Ukraine has its own issues, not only with material, but recruiting as well. It's pretty bleak.

Maybe if the Americans sanctions did something. If the west gave Ukraine the good weapons and ramped up drone production and developed done fantastic anti-drone protection...

[–] Mika@sopuli.xyz 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

But west IS ramping up Ukrainian drone production, it's called "Danish model" and lots of EU countries joined it (mostly those who have no aspirations in their own MIC).

It's not 1k drones a day and I doubt it ever will be. Currently they do 500 but that's not daily, that's accumulation/discharge. And Ukraine is taking down the most of them - which still means like 10-20 hit the targets per wave.

But I mean, it's not one-sided thing and stuff burns in russia too. Ukrainian long-range capabilities are better than ever. So many events that would sound groundbreaking in 2022 are just another Friday.

[–] PixelatedSaturn@lemmy.world 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

I'm always sceptical of EU programs. Usually they start a few years later after all the documentation is finally approved, then the licenses and planning for a year and the first products come another year after. 🙄 Didn't know if danish model, I'll look it up.

Regarding Russia, I think they could step up production. They could get to a point where they launch 1000 a day in a year or two. It's possible, they are really into this war. And there is no internal descent.

You think it's possible to do so much damage with precision strikes, to cripple Russias drone production. They have been striking oil refineries for a while now and I didn't see any credible resources about how much effect that actually had.

[–] Mika@sopuli.xyz 2 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Seen just recently - petroleum crisis

https://t.me/ShrikeNews/24768

https://t.me/ShrikeNews/24772

Except that, every hit like that is another cut that cripples economy. The most effective action of "Just Stop Oil" campaign by so far.

[–] PixelatedSaturn@lemmy.world 1 points 5 days ago

I'm just not very optimistic. To many people have predicted that Russia would crumble and they did remarkably well.

[–] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 7 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Yeah, that's fair. What I'm clumsily trying to say is actually optimistic - that if things were going better for Russia, they would be further west and there'd be no talk of peace, even on ludicrous terms.

And in cold calculus knowing full well it prolongs the suffering of innocents - if this was a board game, the smart thing to do might be to keep fighting and letting Russian hubris bleed itself to death. It kind of makes you think North Vietnam's strategy against the U.S. is the way to go. Keep bleeding them until they decide it's no longer militarily possible or politically worthwhile to keep fighting. Anything less than that ensures Russia will try again the first second they're able.

[–] MedicPigBabySaver@lemmy.world 2 points 6 days ago

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦