"Russia and China will not stand by as their ally is destroyed" yeah no, this feels like cope to me
this post was submitted on 29 Jun 2025
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chapotraphouse
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Russia and China are unlikely to provide direct military support, but they obviously aren't going to stand by and provide both political and material support. China wasn't engaged in Ukraine directly either, but certainly wouldn't say they just stood by this whole time either.
A lot of good that did Syria in the end. Or Hezbollah. It's cope.
It's pretty clear that there was no saving Syria, but what's happening there now isn't exactly a big win for the west either. The whole country is a powder keg, and in a state of civil war. The west is now stuck pouring resources into propping up yet another proxy. Also, not sure what you mean regarding Hezbollah. Last I checked they were still around and doing fine.
China wasn't engaged in Ukraine directly either, but certainly wouldn't say they just stood by this whole time either.
How did the PRC contribute?
They helped stabilize Russian economy, replaced sanctioned goods, and gave access to a lot of tech such as drones and chips that are necessary for modern military production.
They helped stabilize Russian economy, replaced sanctioned goods, and gave access to a lot of tech such as drones and chips that are necessary for modern military production
What special measures did the PRC take in the case of this war? Or are you talking about standard trade between Russia and the PRC that was already taking place?
EDIT: In case you were simply referring to trade, then it can also be said that the PRC contributed to NATO's effort by trading with them.
To my knowledge, the PRC didn't do anything special here, as the PRC didn't even ignore the sanctions.
The special measure they took was to ignore western edict on cutting trade with Russia. That was literally the deciding factor in this war.
The PRC did not ignore the sanctions. Some of the trade did get shut down because of the sanctions.
On the other hand, NATO didn't completely stop trading with Russia. Does that mean that NATO also contributed to the war effort against itself and should be thanked for that?
Yeah they very much ignored the sanctions, particularly on oil and gas, as well as on exporting high tech to Russia. If you genuinely can't see the difference between NATO trade with Russia and China there's really no point continuing this discussion.
Yeah they very much ignored the sanctions
They didn't, and I'm not sure why you keep claiming this. In particular, PRC's banks are often mentioned as refusing to work with Russia because of the sanctions.
If you genuinely can't see the difference between NATO trade with Russia and China there's really no point continuing this discussion
What I am trying to understand is what you meant when you said that the PRC didn't just sit this one out. So far, you have only mentioned trade that was already happening instead of being some sort of special measure done to support Russia in the war, and which the PRC has also been conducting with NATO (and the PRC seems to have mostly been trading with NATO). This trade also most likely benefits the PRC much more, as Russia is a semi-peripheral state that relies on exporting natural resources (rather than manufacturing and using or exporting finished goods).
If your claim to the PRC supposedly taking an active part in this war was by doing what it was already doing (trading with Russia on better terms than NATO's), then it's fair to conclude that the PRC opted to stand by and let things happen (especially considering that it did let its companies refuse to deal with Russia on the basis of the sanctions). Considering that the PRC trades more with NATO than with Russia, by your logic we could conclude that the PRC has been helping NATO this whole time - including in the context of this war.
They didn’t, and I’m not sure why you keep claiming this. In particular, PRC’s banks are often mentioned as refusing to work with Russia because of the sanctions.
Give substantial examples of how China followed western sanctions. The fact that you just keep doubling down on this is frankly incredible. Talk to anybody in Russia and you'll see whether they think China helped or not. Why do you think this might be happening? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/30/world/europe/drifting-from-the-wests-orbit-russians-find-a-new-role-model-in-china.html
What I am trying to understand is what you meant when you said that the PRC didn’t just sit this one out.
I've explained to you precisely what I meant already multiple times. The fact that you're trying to create some sort of equivalence between trade with China which went up by hundreds of billions and remaining trade with NATO is truly incredible.
If your claim to the PRC supposedly taking an active part in this war
It's not, and Russia never asked PRC to do this. I'm not sure why you'd even suggest that they should be taking an active part in this war.
Considering that the PRC trades more with NATO than with Russia, by your logic we could conclude that the PRC has been helping NATO this whole time - including in the context of this war.
I've already addressed this earlier. PRC provides Russia with technology that it would not be accessible to Russia otherwise. For example, practically all cars are imported from China at this point, and that's just one example. The whole point of NATO sanctions was to cut Russia off from tech it needs. China prevented this from happening.
Give substantial examples of how China followed western sanctions
Didn't expect to engage in an argument on this matter, so I will need some time to dig up something more serious than stuff like this:
https://www.rbc.ru/business/17/04/2024/661f4a3c9a7947ce48d663ca
This does seem to have been going since at least 2014, as well:
https://tass.com/economy/751008
The fact that you just keep doubling down on this is frankly incredible
Notably, I didn't say anything like this about your inability to substantiate your blindly optimistic claims, but if you want to escalate, sure, I can bite back. Are you sure you want to keep escalating?
Talk to anybody in Russia and you'll see whether they think China helped or not
Well, I would have said that I'm in luck due to where I live, but out of the people in my social vicinity, I'm overwhelmingly likely the most informed one by far (and likely the only socialist). Notably, I first heard about PRC's companies refusing to work with Russia because of sanctions from Russian communists.
Why do you think this might be happening?
The answer(s) to that seem to include things like the following: Russia's bid to join NATO has failed, NATO's attempts at cutting Russia off have been more successful domestically and less successful in the PRC which - due to having nukes and an economy which NATO depends on - is a lot harder for NATO to threaten, Russia has no serious consumer electronics and other relevant industries to speak of (and has no way of developing them without either losing access to relevant goods from the PRC that will be of higher quality, or having to compete with those higher-quality goods from the PRC while at a massive disadvantage) which means that it is highly dependent on the PRC, and so on, and so forth.
Notably, though, the PRC has been trading more with NATO than with Russia, NATO (including Ukraine, to my knowledge) has also not abandoned trade with Russia completely, and the PRC has not ignored the sanctions.
I've explained to you precisely what I meant already multiple times
If it's just trade, then you have to contend with the fact that it was happening either way, and the PRC both trades with NATO much more than with Russia and also refuses to rid NATO of access to important resources. This is rather clearly a case of the PRC standing by.
It's not, and Russia never asked PRC to do this. I'm not sure why you'd even suggest that they should be taking an active part in this war.
You did say that you are confident that the PRC did not just 'stand by' during this war, but aided Russia:
China wasn't engaged in Ukraine directly either, but certainly wouldn't say they just stood by this whole time either
Either the PRC did take Russia's side and took action to aid Russia against NATO, or the PRC did not take any relevant action. If the 'action' in question is just trading, then you have to contend with the fact that the PRC trades more with NATO and refuses to remove NATO's access to relevant resources.
I've already addressed this earlier. PRC provides Russia with technology that it would not be accessible to Russia otherwise. For example, practically all cars are imported from China at this point, and that's just one example
Notably, the PRC also provides NATO with resources and technologies, and relevant trade happens in greater volume there.
Also, Russia being forced to import things because it has no relevant industries to speak of has been the reality for decades now. An actually helpful move would be assisting Russia in developing those industries (which won't happen because that would hurt the PRC's ability to export things).
The whole point of NATO sanctions was to cut Russia off from tech it needs.
The whole point was to hurt Russia's economy. A complete cutting off from relevant technologies wouldn't have ever happened.
In terms of hurting Russia's economy, the sanctions seem to have been (at least partially) successful, as Russia has been suffering from high inflation.
Didn’t expect to engage in an argument on this matter, so I will need some time to dig up something more serious than stuff like this:
Yeah that's just not as exciting as you seem to think it is. Some companies in China do trade with the west and don't want to lose that. That doesn't change the fact that China actively supported Russian war effort. Don't take my word for it though. Here's an interview with a Russian drone developer who says that China has been quietly allowing mass shipments of drones and supporting tech into Russia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmfNUM2CbbM
Notably, I didn’t say anything like this about your inability to substantiate your blindly optimistic claims, but if you want to escalate, sure, I can bite back. Are you sure you want to keep escalating?
I'm not sure what you want me to substantiate here, the numbers speak for themselves https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/01/13/china-russia-trade-hit-record-high-in-2024-a87590
You can bite back, but you can't seem to produce a coherent argument.
Russia has no serious consumer electronics and other relevant industries to speak of (and has no way of developing them without either losing access to relevant goods from the PRC that will be of higher quality, or having to compete with those higher-quality goods from the PRC while at a massive disadvantage) which means that it is highly dependent on the PRC, and so on, and so forth.
In other words, China is filling the gaps left by the west and ensuring that Russian economy keeps functioning without taking any major hit as a result of sanctions.
Notably, though, the PRC has been trading more with NATO than with Russia, NATO (including Ukraine, to my knowledge) has also not abandoned trade with Russia completely, and the PRC has not ignored the sanctions.
Again, not sure why you think this is some sort of a gotcha.
You did say that you are confident that the PRC did not just ‘stand by’ during this war, but aided Russia:
And I've provided concrete examples of that happening which resulted in trade jumping astronomically between Russia and China throughout the course of the war.
I'm honestly not sure what you'd be expecting China to do that would qualify as not standing by in your mind.
The whole point was to hurt Russia’s economy.
That very obviously did not happen, and China was the main reason for that.
In terms of hurting Russia’s economy, the sanctions seem to have been (at least partially) successful, as Russia has been suffering from high inflation.
Ah yes, just look at all the suffering from high inflation. The World Bank just reclassified Russia as a high income country https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/world-bank-country-classifications-by-income-level-for-2024-2025
Meanwhile, the IMF forecasts that Russian economy is set to grow faster than all the western economies https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/russia-forecast-to-grow-faster-than-advanced-economies-in-2024-imf.html
The reality is that Russia provides a shield for China in the west. Despite what you might think, Chinese are not imbeciles, and they realize that they need a stable and functioning Russia to prevent being surrounded from the west and cut off from critical resources. Hence why China is actively supporting Russia and ensuring their economy stays stable.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Yeah that's just not as exciting as you seem to think it is. Some companies in China do trade with the west and don't want to lose that
So, did the PRC take any action to prevent companies from refusing to trade with Russia because of the sanctions? Or were there no such initiatives and it was all left to the companies to make the decisions based on the profit motive?
That doesn't change the fact that China actively supported Russian war effort
How did the PRC actively support the Russian war effort? There don't seem to have been any initiatives by the PRC to support Russia in the war, only the trade that would have been happening either way (with Russia being forced to find more export deals while being in a weaker position to negotiate in the case of how things have turned out).
Here's an interview with a Russian drone developer who says that China has been quietly allowing mass shipments of drones and supporting tech into Russia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmfNUM2CbbM
I haven't had the time to finish the video, but if we believe the word of this capitalist, then we must also arrive to conclusions like:
- The PRC also supplies the Ukrainian military with drones (mentioned when the interviewee talks about an exploded Ukrainian drone between 9:00 and 10:00, and then mentioned again between 11:00 and 12:00)
- Private companies are better at innovation than state organisations
- Russian soldiers have never heard about UAVs and drones until 2022
- The PRC does not understand what makes a weapon good and make 'toy-like' weapons
- The PRC blocks export of some relevant things into Russia, including engines for drones
It does seem believable that the PRC doesn't restrict trade relevant to the Russian weapon supply much, but the PRC also doesn't seem to do much in terms of these restrictions against NATO, so Russia is not favoured here, and, again, not seeing any war-related initiatives.
I'm not sure what you want me to substantiate here
That the PRC has taken an action to support Russia in this war. Continuing 'business as usual' is not something that I would associate with taking an active part to support Russia.
the numbers speak for themselves https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/01/13/china-russia-trade-hit-record-high-in-2024-a87590
Cool. Now, compare those with PRC-NATO trade numbers and explain what initiatives the PRC took to support Russia.
You can bite back, but you can't seem to produce a coherent argument.
Oh, we are escalating. Cool.
Well, firstly, I wasn't making an argument - not initially, at least, - I was asking a question about what you meant (because what you said seemed - and still does seem - to be just copium), so you need to do something about your reading comprehension and being offended over your inability to explain what you mean and back your claims.
Secondly, you are yet to point to any initiatives that the PRC took to support Russia in this war.
In other words, China is filling the gaps left by the west and ensuring that Russian economy keeps functioning without taking any major hit as a result of sanctions
This is laughable. The PRC gets to receive cheap resources from Russia, with Russia being more disadvantaged now, and the Russian economy still takes significant hits from the sanctions.
This isn't a charity - the PRC benefits from Russia's weaker trading position.
Again, not sure why you think this is some sort of a gotcha.
So, the PRC trading with Russia is magically the PRC actively supporting Russia in the war, but the PRC also trading with NATO in much higher volumes is not the PRC actively supporting NATO?
And I've provided concrete examples of that happening
'Business as usual' is not a 'concrete example' of actively supporting Russia in the war. Hell, the PRC is taking action to keep trading with NATO.
which resulted in trade jumping astronomically between Russia and China throughout the course of the war
'Astronomically' is an obvious overstatement, and this rise is already seemingly dead. This rise in trade has also been just a simple rerouting of resource extraction, Russia becoming even weaker economically than prior to the sanctions, and with the PRC not taking action (that I'm aware of) to help Russia long-term.
I'm honestly not sure what you'd be expecting China to do that would qualify as not standing by in your mind.
For example, providing Russia with personnel and materiel, or joining the war officially, or taking action to restart relevant industries in Russia (which, again, I have mentioned, and I have mentioned that the PRC would never do this while having an economy that features the profit motive), or sanctioning NATO, or just restricting its own trade with NATO (especially when it comes to antimony and rare earths).
That very obviously did not happen
'Oh silly you and everybody else who complains about things like inflation, including inflation of primary-needs goods that came with the sanctions and has been high ever since, none of that happened and it's just a mass hallucination, even when the (lower estimate) stats are easily available online'.
Ah yes, just look at all the suffering from high inflation. The World Bank just reclassified Russia as a high income country
This is extremely silly. You probably also believe that $2 extreme poverty thing. All that the World Bank says there is just that Russia has a high GNI by their estimates, and an apparent major contributor to Russia's rise in that regard is 'military related activity', which doesn't (directly) help reproduce labour and expand an economy.
I suppose, not even that is going to last for long, considering that the government has been speaking about 'cooling down' the economy, with the minister of economic development speaking about a coming recession during the latest St. Petersburg International Economic Forum session.
Meanwhile, the IMF forecasts that Russian economy is set to grow faster than all the western economies
It predicted that for 2024. It is 2025 now.
Additionally, the inflation has not disappeared, the government is speaking about the slowing down of the economy, and we are probably going into a recession soon.
Despite what you might think, Chinese are not imbeciles
I don't. I never claimed that the actions of the PRC were dumb or anything like that. I even explained why I don't expect them to take some of the actions that I mentioned.
The PRC, however, has been taking actions that are beneficial to the PRC first and foremost. The government of the PRC doesn't show any interest in upsetting the status quo of NATO's colonial exploitation of the rest of the world, and the actions that it has been taking have been apparently aimed at keeping the PRC a beneficiary of that.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
So, did the PRC take any action to prevent companies from refusing to trade with Russia because of the sanctions? Or were there no such initiatives and it was all left to the companies to make the decisions based on the profit motive?
They didn't need to do that. In case you didn't realize it, China is a country of 1.4 billion people, and there are plenty of companies available that can trade with Russia at any given time.
How did the PRC actively support the Russian war effort?
The video I linked, which you didn't have time to finish, gives concrete examples of that. He explains how China is intentionally turning a blind eye to military exports to Russia which they're officially not doing. It's incredible to me that people can be so naive to think that everything Russia and China are doing is done publicly.
It does seem believable that the PRC doesn’t restrict trade relevant to the Russian weapon supply much, but the PRC also doesn’t seem to do much in terms of these restrictions against NATO, so Russia is not favoured here, and, again, not seeing any war-related initiatives.
Oh weird, I guess I was imagining these things happening
- https://kyivindependent.com/china-suts-drone-sales-to-ukraine-west-but-continues-supplying-russia-bloomberg-reports/
- https://energynews.oedigital.com/mining/2025/03/20/china-export-controls-have-frozen-antimony-shipments-into-the-eu-since-october
- https://www.csis.org/analysis/consequences-chinas-new-rare-earths-export-restrictions
China cut off drone sales, critical supplies of explosives, and rare earth minerals that make it effectively impossible for NATO to produce modern weapons.
That the PRC has taken an action to support Russia in this war. Continuing ‘business as usual’ is not something that I would associate with taking an active part to support Russia.
An interesting way to say massively increasing trade with Russia, while cutting the west off critical things they need to produce drones and artillery shells.
Cool. Now, compare those with PRC-NATO trade numbers and explain what initiatives the PRC took to support Russia.
Well I just did that above where I gave you links to the restrictions PRC putting on NATO that are directly impacting NATO military production.
Secondly, you are yet to point to any initiatives that the PRC took to support Russia in this war.
I've given you plenty of examples, but you simple hand wave them away without actually providing examples of what it is you expect China to be doing.
This isn’t a charity - the PRC benefits from Russia’s weaker trading position.
Nobody suggested it was a charity, and it's laughable to claim that it should be.
So, the PRC trading with Russia is magically the PRC actively supporting Russia in the war, but the PRC also trading with NATO in much higher volumes is not the PRC actively supporting NATO?
I mean what you say here is demonstrably false as I've already explained above.
‘Astronomically’ is an obvious overstatement, and this rise is already seemingly dead. This rise in trade has also been just a simple rerouting of resource extraction, Russia becoming even weaker economically than prior to the sanctions, and with the PRC not taking action (that I’m aware of) to help Russia long-term.
I love how you're just making things up at this point.
For example, providing Russia with personnel and materiel, or joining the war officially, or taking action to restart relevant industries in Russia (which, again, I have mentioned, and I have mentioned that the PRC would never do this while having an economy that features the profit motive), or sanctioning NATO, or just restricting its own trade with NATO (especially when it comes to antimony and rare earths).
For starters, Russia never asked China to join the war or restart relevant industries. Not clear what these are given that Russia is currently outproducing NATO by a large margin. Meanwhile, there are plenty of clear examples of China restricting trade with NATO, I gave you three of them above.
Sounds to me like you're just upset that China didn't start WW3, because taking the actions you suggest would certainly be a good way to go about doing it. I, for one, am glad that Chinese leadership understands the stakes here we're not dying in a nuclear holocaust right now. There is absolutely no rational reason for PRC to enter the war directly or to start provoking NATO further, but if that's what you want then yeah that explains why you think China is not helping Russia.
‘Oh silly you and everybody else who complains about things like inflation, including inflation of primary-needs goods that came with the sanctions and has been high ever since, none of that happened and it’s just a mass hallucination, even when the (lower estimate) stats are easily available online’.
Who is everybody exactly? Do you even know anybody living in Russia?
I suppose, not even that is going to last for long, considering that the government has been speaking about ‘cooling down’ the economy, with the minister of economic development speaking about a coming recession during the latest St. Petersburg International Economic Forum session.
I followed the forum, do point out where they say recession is happening. I've heard these predictions non stop for the past three years, and it's incredible that people still keep regurgitating this nonsense.
Here's what things are looking like in the real world https://archive.ph/I8wrK
Additionally, the inflation has not disappeared, the government is speaking about the slowing down of the economy, and we are probably going into a recession soon.
LMFAO they are not talking about going to a recession.
I don’t. I never claimed that the actions of the PRC were dumb or anything like that. I
That's literally the argument you keep trying to make here because they would have to be complete imbeciles to allow Russia to fail against the west. Anybody with even a minimally functioning brain can understand that it would be a disaster for China.
If you understand that PRC is taking actions that are beneficial to them then you should also recognize that ensuring Russia is politically and economically stable is at the top of the list for PRC.
They didn't need to do that.
If the PRC didn't do anything, then the PRC stood by.
In case you didn't realize it, China is a country of 1.4 billion people, and there are plenty of companies available that can trade with Russia at any given time
Okay, so the PRC did not undertake any initiatives, and it was just trade as usual, it seems.
The video I linked, which you didn't have time to finish, gives concrete examples of that
Can you provide at least one timestamp? I am busy, tired, and probably sick these days, and I don't want to dedicate too much time that I could spend on my studies on a capitalist talking about how great private companies are at innovation for what, 40+ minutes?
He explains how China is intentionally turning a blind eye to military exports to Russia which they're officially not doing. It's incredible to me that people can be so naive to think that everything Russia and China are doing is done publicly
If the PRC actually supplied Russia with weapons, sure (even though that's a very different thing from what you initially pointed to). What are those weapons, and why haven't I heard about them? Or are we talking specifically about components and resources that are used in manufacturing weapons in Russia, in which case the PRC also supplies NATO with those.
Yeah, this counts, but this does come very late into the war, and is very different from what you pointed to previously.
My bad. I must have mixed up the PRC going back on its other restrictions during the recent deal with the genocidal hegemon.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/consequences-chinas-new-rare-earths-export-restrictions
The PRC has made an agreement with NATO to go back on restrictions on rare earths exports.
China cut off drone sales, critical supplies of explosives, and rare earth minerals that make it effectively impossible for NATO to produce modern weapons.
I'll believe it when I see NATO stop being able to produce modern weapons instead of using them to enact genocides and colonial reconquest.
An interesting way to say massively increasing trade with Russia, while cutting the west off critical things they need to produce drones and artillery shells.
Given that the former comes naturally from Russia having to find another export destination while being in a weaker position to negotiate, and the PRC has already gone back on some of the latter, that's not a way to say that, interesting or not.
Well I just did that above where I gave you links to the restrictions PRC putting on NATO that are directly impacting NATO military production.
And forgot the recent agreements to go back on some of that. And also only provided those links or pointed to those things after escalating for no good reason.
I've given you plenty of examples
Not until your latest comment. Up until then it was 'the PRC has been doing business as usual with Russia, at a much lower volume than it has been doing with NATO, so it clearly took an action to support Russia'
Nobody suggested it was a charity, and it's laughable to claim that it should be
I guess it is laughable that there should be cooperation between states outside the imperial core that would involve long-term solutions and be in any way comparable to what the USSR has done.
I love how you're just making things up at this point
I love it how you can look at things like inflation (even just general, and not inflation of primary-needs goods) and think that it's all made up. I would have loved to live in your fantasy world.
I also love how you seriously cited the 'high-income country' thing earlier. That was hilarious.
For starters, Russia never asked China to join the war or restart relevant industries
For starters, what the compradors in Russia asked or didn't ask the PRC to do in this regard is irrelevant, as the PRC is in a position to coerce them.
Not clear what these are given that Russia is currently outproducing NATO by a large margin
So, you look at a semi-peripheral state the industries of which were destroyed in the 90s and which has been reliant on selling cheap resources and labour (while, admittedly, still having a periphery of its own and still having favourable unequal exchange with some of the countries outside of the imperial core, so Russia isn't in the worst position out there) and on importing expensive finished goods, and can't see a problem? Really?
But also, I would prefer to live in the fantasy world where Russia outproduces the entirety of NATO by a large margin in areas like electronics and industrial equipment.
Meanwhile, there are plenty of clear examples of China restricting trade with NATO
Which you only managed to point to after flipping out for no good reason and insisting that the PRC trading with Russia means that the PRC actively supports Russia in the war (even though there has been apparently neither a policy change nor any sort of action taken by the PRC in this regard), while the PRC trading with NATO is magically not counted as support for NATO. And forgot about the PRC also going back on some of those restrictions, and about some of those restrictions being very recent.
But sure, I do admit that I made a mistake with antimony. Let's hope that restriction stays in place.
Sounds to me like you're just upset that China didn't start WW3, because taking the actions you suggest would certainly be a good way to go about doing it.
I can just as well accuse you of trying to invent a fantasy where your preconceived conclusions hold true, such as in the cases of the sanctions magically not hurting Russia and the PRC never being in the wrong (hopefully, you are still not creative enough to come up with claims like 'the PRC siding with NATO against the USSR and helping plunge the world into the neo-colonial hell that we are witnessing today was good and awesome'), and that you want for nothing to be done about NATO's colonialism.
There is absolutely no rational reason for PRC to enter the war directly
Except for ending the conflict more quickly and with lower cost in lives.
or to start provoking NATO further
NATO doesn't exactly need a provocation to do things. It will come and destroy more of the world while the PRC stands by.
Who is everybody exactly? Do you even know anybody living in Russia?
Ой, прошу прощения, вы правы. Никого не знаю, никого на улицах и на работе не встречаю, никого со школ и с университетов - включая учителей - не знаю, живу в городе-призраке с нулевым населением. Даже меня там нет.
I followed the forum, do point out where they say recession is happening
The minister of economic development says that at around the 25:30 mark
https://youtu.be/Qtt9RFshDNc?t=1521
I've heard these predictions non stop for the past three years, and it's incredible that people still keep regurgitating this nonsense
Are you saying that Reshetnikov or other people responsible for the Russian economy have been making these predictions for the past three years?
Here's what things are looking like in the real world https://archive.ph/I8wrK
Oh, look. Russian compradors continuing to sell off cheap resources instead of finished goods.
LMFAO they are not talking about going to a recession
Well, you need to do something about your auditory comprehension now that you have been pointed to the minister of economic development talking about a recession.
That's literally the argument you keep trying to make here
You also need to do something about your reading comprehension. I have already said that the actions of the PRC are not 'dumb'. They are, however, neither altruistic, nor (in the case of the things that you were pointing out previously - I do admit a mistake regarding antimony, and the recent restriction on selling drones does count, even though it came very late) indicative of the PRC actively supporting Russia in the war.
because they would have to be complete imbeciles to allow Russia to fail against the west. Anybody with even a minimally functioning brain can understand that it would be a disaster for China
Well, one could have argued the same in the case of the PRC and the USSR, and yet, here we are.
But also, the PRC can afford Russia to go into crises that would weaken it and make trade with Russia even more advantageous to the PRC just fine, so long as it does not get couped by NATO.
If you understand that PRC is taking actions that are beneficial to them then you should also recognize that ensuring Russia is politically and economically stable is at the top of the list for PRC
Ensuring Russia's economic stability is likely not something that the PRC is concerned about, as that could mean an even better, even more dependent source of cheap resources.
Ensuring long-term economic stability in Russia would mean stuff like restarting Russia's industries and getting rid of the economic inequality (which can only be done temporarily under capitalism), which the PRC doesn't really care about, either.
Keeping Russia politically stable? Sure.
If the PRC didn’t do anything, then the PRC stood by.
I've repeatedly explained specifically what they did and provided examples. You seem to be trying to create a false dichotomy between PRC actively starting WW3 and anything else being standing by. It's an infantile way to look at things.
Okay, so the PRC did not undertake any initiatives, and it was just trade as usual, it seems.
It's not, and again I'll refer you to the video. I've gone through the trouble of pulling out the exact quote below.
Can you provide at least one timestamp? I am busy, tired, and probably sick these days, and I don’t want to dedicate too much time that I could spend on my studies on a capitalist talking about how great private companies are at innovation for what, 40+ minutes?
It's at 00:13:33.839
Well, that's interesting because if you read the Western press, they often portray China as Russia's main military ally, like they're supplying everything needed for the front. Well, there's China's official stance and then there's their unofficial stance. Officially, China says it follows all the sanctions and blocks military related exports. And in some areas, that's true. For example, we can't make payments to Chinese sellers using Russian bank cards anymore. A lot of products can't be directly imported either. There are even decrees that ban the export of motors over 700 watt, which are exactly the kinds used in heavy drones. But then there's the other side of the coin. We share a long land border with China, and there are countless private companies operating in that space. These companies handle transactions, organize shipments, and move parts across the border. And honestly, when you consider how tightly everything in China is monitored and regulated, it's hard to believe that the government doesn't know what's going on.
In fact, it feels more like they're turning a blind eye or maybe even quietly approving. Because if the Chinese authorities really wanted to stop this kind of trade, they absolutely could instantly. And no one would be able to do anything about it.
If the PRC actually supplied Russia with weapons, sure (even though that’s a very different thing from what you initially pointed to). What are those weapons, and why haven’t I heard about them?
Why do you assume that China and Russia would be publicly announcing what China supplies to Russia?
Or are we talking specifically about components and resources that are used in manufacturing weapons in Russia, in which case the PRC also supplies NATO with those.
Except, as the links I've provided in the last reply show, China is actively cutting access to these components for the west.
Yeah, this counts, but this does come very late into the war, and is very different from what you pointed to previously.
How is that different from what I pointed to previously?
My bad. I must have mixed up the PRC going back on its other restrictions during the recent deal with the genocidal hegemon.
Antimony restrictions predate the trade war.
The PRC has made an agreement with NATO to go back on restrictions on rare earths exports.
Only partially, the restrictions on military suppliers still stand.
I’ll believe it when I see NATO stop being able to produce modern weapons instead of using them to enact genocides and colonial reconquest.
That's literally happening right now and it's all over the news. NATO openly admits they're not able to produce weapons and ammunition at the rate they're using them.
Given that the former comes naturally from Russia having to find another export destination while being in a weaker position to negotiate, and the PRC has already gone back on some of the latter, that’s not a way to say that, interesting or not.
You keep repeating that PRC has gone back on some of this, what specifically have they gone back on. Last I checked, the trade is only increasing. Meanwhile, whether it comes naturally or not is entirely besides the point. China is acting as a key stabilizing factor for Russian economy.
Not until your latest comment. Up until then it was ‘the PRC has been doing business as usual with Russia, at a much lower volume than it has been doing with NATO, so it clearly took an action to support Russia’
I simply assumed you did at least cursory googling on the subject you're so passionate to argue about.
I guess it is laughable that there should be cooperation between states outside the imperial core that would involve long-term solutions and be in any way comparable to what the USSR has done.
I can't help but notice that USSR isn't around anymore. Have you considered that there might be a different approach that is more effective, such as the one China is currently pursuing?
I would have loved to live in your fantasy world.
If by living in a fantasy world you mean engaging with reality then sure. The fact that these predictions of an economic crisis in Russia have been going on for three years and the opposite is happening is not giving you any pause evidently.
For starters, what the compradors in Russia asked or didn’t ask the PRC to do in this regard is irrelevant, as the PRC is in a position to coerce them.
Ah yes, Russian sovereignty doesn't matter, and PRC should've been coercing them into what exactly?
So, you look at a semi-peripheral state the industries of which were destroyed in the 90s and which has been reliant on selling cheap resources and labour (while, admittedly, still having a periphery of its own and still having favourable unequal exchange with some of the countries outside of the imperial core, so Russia isn’t in the worst position out there) and on importing expensive finished goods, and can’t see a problem? Really?
So, you look at a state that has more industrial strength than all of NATO and write the above. Keep the bangers coming!
But also, I would prefer to live in the fantasy world where Russia outproduces the entirety of NATO by a large margin in areas like electronics and industrial equipment.
But also maybe spend a bit of time learning about the subjects you attempt to debate?
- https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine
- https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine
Which you only managed to point to after flipping out for no good reason and insisting that the PRC trading with Russia means that the PRC actively supports Russia in the war
I didn't flip anything. This was my position from the start. You're the one trying to make the nonsensical argument that either China enters the war directly or they're not providing support.
I can just as well accuse you of trying to invent a fantasy where your preconceived conclusions hold true, such as in the cases of the sanctions magically not hurting Russia
It's pretty obvious that the sanctions are hurting the west, particularly Europe, far more than they are hurting Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is strengthening ties with the global south and we're now seeing a whole new economy developing entirely outside western control.
Except for ending the conflict more quickly and with lower cost in lives.
If China entered the war directly then it would be almost certain that NATO would do the same. At that point we'd be almost certainly looking at a nuclear holocaust. The fact that you haven't considered this obvious risk clearly shows that you haven't thought about this at all.
NATO doesn’t exactly need a provocation to do things. It will come and destroy more of the world while the PRC stands by.
Yes they do, NATO countries still have to deal with internal politics and growing domestic unrest. The whole narrative in the west has been that Russia is weak and it's struggling in Ukraine in some sort of a stalemate. That makes it very difficult to justify direct intervention which every poll shows would be highly unpopular. In a scenario where China was fighting on the side of Russia, it would be far easier to drum up reasons why the west has to go all in.
Ой, прошу прощения, вы правы. Никого не знаю, никого на улицах и на работе не встречаю, никого со школ и с университетов - включая учителей - не знаю, живу в городе-призраке с нулевым населением. Даже меня там нет.
Ну и что я тоже по русски говорю, тебя это експерем по экономики не делает.
The minister of economic development says that at around the 25:30 mark https://youtu.be/Qtt9RFshDNc?t=1521
Говорит что на грани, все зависит от решений, он хочет снизить ставки. Этот разговор продолжается уже два года.
Are you saying that Reshetnikov or other people responsible for the Russian economy have been making these predictions for the past three years?
Indeed I am, there's been a debate about whether to lower rates or not going on since pretty much the start of the war. Some people are worried that the economy is overheating and they want to keep the rates up, others like him keep talking about a recession if the rates don't come down. It's literally nothing new.
Oh, look. Russian compradors continuing to sell off cheap resources instead of finished goods.
China is hardly going to import finished goods from Russia given that they're the main industrial hub in the world. However, these things are happening as well. https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2024/07/15/how-the-ukraine-war-is-reviving-russias-rust-belt/
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
second part since I ran over the comment size limit.
You also need to do something about your reading comprehension. I have already said that the actions of the PRC are not ‘dumb’. They are, however, neither altruistic, nor (in the case of the things that you were pointing out previously - I do admit a mistake regarding antimony, and the recent restriction on selling drones does count, even though it came very late) indicative of the PRC actively supporting Russia in the war.
Nobody is claiming PRC is being altruistic here. What I actually said was that it would not be in left interest of China to let Russia fail. Therefore, they will provide support when and where it's actually needed.
Ensuring Russia’s economic stability is likely not something that the PRC is concerned about, as that could mean an even better, even more dependent source of cheap resources.
That's something PRC is extremely concerned about because the alternative could be Balkanization of Russia, which would allow the US to start surrounding China with puppet states in the west and to cut China off from critical resources such as food and energy that they get from Russia currently.
This is literally what the war in Ukraine is all about. The US hasn't even been hiding it. Read this National Interest article as an example, it spells it out in black and white https://nationalinterest.org/feature/strategy-avoiding-two-front-war-192137
RAND also published a whole study on why the US needs to break Russia before taking on China https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR3000/RR3063/RAND_RR3063.pdf
It's obvious that Chinese understand this as well and they see a stable Russia as a matter of their own national security. In fact, they've just openly stated this https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-tells-eu-it-cannot-afford-russian-loss-ukraine-war-sources-say
Keeping Russia politically stable? Sure.
Long term political stability is not possible without a sound economic foundation. Surely, I don't have to explain the concept of base and superstructure...
Russia can't help Iran because they are already fully committed to Ukraine. They can't afford another front.
China, however, very likely helped Iran in electronic warfare, both helping Iran target missiles or by jamming iron dome's electronics. They will never admit this, but we might discover their capabilities in the future.
USS Brave Sir Robin (CVN-69), USS Teddy Bear (CVN-71), and USS Fraidy Abe (CVN-72)
Haha
They were followed up by the USS Trembling Puppy (CVN-75) and the USS Timid Vinny (CVN-70)
These can't be the real names.
They very much aren't. Cvn-69 is the Dwight D Eisenhower, CVN-71 is the Theodore Roosevelt, cvn-72 is the Abraham Lincoln, cvn-75 is the Harry S Truman, and finally the cvn-70 is the Carl Vinson. It got a chuckle out of me but it also starts the article off in a very unserious tone.
There's a Canadian ship called "Wet Ass Queen"
Iran can buy Chinese fighters can't they? It would be wild to watch Iran take out US/Israeli fighters with export models. I don't think you can claim air superiority with only anti air emplacements. I thought I had read that Iran really didn't have control of their airspace. Where is this guy getting the impression that Iran could just be winning next time?
I imagine both Russia and China are quite eager for an opportunity to test their weapons and defense systems against the US in Iran.
And get the technical knowledge stolen by Mossad given how deeply infiltrated and compromised Iran is? I wouldn't think so.
Russia doesn't have a ton of production capacity and last I checked s-400 systems are very expensive, India bought some and they're going to be delivered in future for example and given how much force the west would likely hit Iran with they'd need a lot of them to prevent them being overwhelmed and destroyed by drone and cruise missile volleys. It would be as much an opportunity for the west to gather technical data as either of those powers.
Another problem is as we've seen the zionists are firing munitions from outside of Iran's borders to clear the way. Iranians don't want to engage them in the airspace outside their borders as it risks bringing another country actively into the war against them and also don't have good radar visibility which increases the chance of these systems just being killed without doing much good.
China already got to test their systems with the Pakistan vs India situation I believe. Russia has already tested them against Ukraine.
Neither power seems particularly interested in enraging the US by sticking their neck out here. Both go out of their way to kick the can down the road and bide their time and strength. Russia is full of capitalist liberals who genuinely want to find a way back to some sort of compromise between full NATO membership and the reality that the US and NATO will seek to destroy them because they're not sharing Europe or central Asia and control of those or other parts of the world with Russian bourgeoisie. They want at the very least to PLAY Trump into not escalating in Ukraine and not slapping on more sanctions for as long as possible by not doing anything that would cause him to walk away from negotiations as like it or not they can't win Ukraine decisively in the way they want that doesn't end in a smoldering conflict that keeps flaring up without a negotiated solution and if Trump walks away they fear years more of fighting Ukraine in a drawn out war deep into central and eastern Ukraine at great cost and damage to their economy as there are like it or not problems Russia is experiencing from this conflict and it can't keep this footing forever in a capitalist mode of production. They were able to do a deal with the DPRK because it's already off the chessboard for the US given the DPRK has nukes so it didn't matter to the US that Russia agreed to defend them as it doesn't change a strategic calculus nor is the DPRK near as important to global control as Iran. China has its own reasons as in basically biding its time to build up its own military and because it still hasn't resolved Taiwan and still needs the US economically (which is why they're willing to do deals with Trump and restore access to critical minerals despite some of them being bound to be used in weapons that are likely to be used on China within a decade).
Neither has had a break out moment showing a turn towards outright hostility towards the US which this would be perceived as and both seem to accept the US ruled order of the world. For example despite the staggering sanctions on Russia they haven't moved to destroy dollar hegemony because they don't want to anger the US and Trump and because they believe if they don't they'll get their stolen $300 billion dollars back held by the west.
Russia already sells S400 systems to India and Turkey, so if they were worried about that they wouldn't be selling them externally at all. It's far easier for spies to gather data on these system in countries that are friendly with the west. Also worth noting that Russia already has next gen systems like S500, so what they learn using S400s can be applied to their design. The US gets to see older Russian or Chinese tech at the expense of exposing their best tech. That's a good trade. Recall that the primary weakness the US has is the fact that it's deindustrialized. Russia and China are able to produce new systems easily, the US is not.
Also, not sure why you say that Russia doesn't have a ton of production capacity when Russia is outproducing all of NATO.
China already got to test their systems with the Pakistan vs India situation I believe. Russia has already tested them against Ukraine.
The key would be testing against most advanced US systems like F35 and B2. These are the real danger because if they can slip in undetected they can deliver a nuke. Learning how they work and that you can track them reliably is essential. The trade off is that the US learns more about systems like S400 is entirely worth it because it's likely not possible to mitigate the fact that they can detect these jets. You'd basically have to go back to the drawing board and design a whole new jet at that point. And given that the US can't even get rare earth right now, that's gonna be a big challenge.
I agree that both Russia and China want to avoid a direct conflict with the US as long as possible. It makes sense to do so because time is on their side. However, a big aspect of using that time wisely is to learn as much as possible about the US. Russia was able to deal with DPRK as a direct result of US cutting Russia out of western financial system. The threat of secondary sanctions is what was holding Russia back before.
For example despite the staggering sanctions on Russia they haven’t moved to destroy dollar hegemony because they don’t want to anger the US and Trump and because they believe if they don’t they’ll get their stolen $300 billion dollars back held by the west.
I disagree there, dedollarization is happening at a staggering rate right now and Russia is at the centre of that. Just because they're not making bombastic statements doesn't mean they're not making every effort to contain the US. Boiling the frog is the correct approach because it minimizes the risk of all out nuclear holocaust, while gradually constricting western power.
My prediction is that the collapse of the west will be internal and it will be driven by economic woes. Both the US and EU economies are teetering on the brink already, and this is translating into internal polarization as the standard of living continues to collapse. The ideal scenario for Russia and China is precisely what's happening now with US being drawn into protracted conflicts that stretch the US past its limits.
Iran really need to upgrade its air force as it is essential for increasing their anti-air capabilities. Aircraft can both function as mobile radars and have striking capabilities to target tankers and by making enemy aircraft busy and working on defensive maneuvers instead of just dropping bombs. B2 can be vulnerable to air to air engagements, especially long range air to air and surface to air strikes, since they rely more on their stealth capabilities than maneuverability.
That said, any anti-aircraft capability is still secondary to developing their nuclear program. The game will only be over after Iran develops its nuclear arsenal.
Today, Iran is very likely to win against Israel and the US due to their strategical depth and ballistic capabilities. Let's keep in mind Iran still hasn't used their top grade missiles. However any prolonged conflict would also destroy the Iranian economy, so it would be a Pyrrhic victory for Iran and for the resistance axis. This is why it is imperative that they can reach nuclear dissuation to prevent a direct conflict.
Yup, very much agree.
I hope they realize that Iran is necessary for them and don't abandon it.
The only way the US can possibly defeat Iran is either by using tactical nuclear weapons (which opens a big Pandora box, which can lead to a mutual self destruction scenario or nuclear wars), or by regime change. Israel tried this and failed.