chapotraphouse

second part since I ran over the comment size limit.

You also need to do something about your reading comprehension. I have already said that the actions of the PRC are not ‘dumb’. They are, however, neither altruistic, nor (in the case of the things that you were pointing out previously - I do admit a mistake regarding antimony, and the recent restriction on selling drones does count, even though it came very late) indicative of the PRC actively supporting Russia in the war.

Nobody is claiming PRC is being altruistic here. What I actually said was that it would not be in left interest of China to let Russia fail. Therefore, they will provide support when and where it's actually needed.

Ensuring Russia’s economic stability is likely not something that the PRC is concerned about, as that could mean an even better, even more dependent source of cheap resources.

That's something PRC is extremely concerned about because the alternative could be Balkanization of Russia, which would allow the US to start surrounding China with puppet states in the west and to cut China off from critical resources such as food and energy that they get from Russia currently.

This is literally what the war in Ukraine is all about. The US hasn't even been hiding it. Read this National Interest article as an example, it spells it out in black and white https://nationalinterest.org/feature/strategy-avoiding-two-front-war-192137

RAND also published a whole study on why the US needs to break Russia before taking on China https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR3000/RR3063/RAND_RR3063.pdf

It's obvious that Chinese understand this as well and they see a stable Russia as a matter of their own national security. In fact, they've just openly stated this https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-tells-eu-it-cannot-afford-russian-loss-ukraine-war-sources-say

Keeping Russia politically stable? Sure.

Long term political stability is not possible without a sound economic foundation. Surely, I don't have to explain the concept of base and superstructure...

If the PRC didn’t do anything, then the PRC stood by.

I've repeatedly explained specifically what they did and provided examples. You seem to be trying to create a false dichotomy between PRC actively starting WW3 and anything else being standing by. It's an infantile way to look at things.

Okay, so the PRC did not undertake any initiatives, and it was just trade as usual, it seems.

It's not, and again I'll refer you to the video. I've gone through the trouble of pulling out the exact quote below.

Can you provide at least one timestamp? I am busy, tired, and probably sick these days, and I don’t want to dedicate too much time that I could spend on my studies on a capitalist talking about how great private companies are at innovation for what, 40+ minutes?

It's at 00:13:33.839

Well, that's interesting because if you read the Western press, they often portray China as Russia's main military ally, like they're supplying everything needed for the front. Well, there's China's official stance and then there's their unofficial stance. Officially, China says it follows all the sanctions and blocks military related exports. And in some areas, that's true. For example, we can't make payments to Chinese sellers using Russian bank cards anymore. A lot of products can't be directly imported either. There are even decrees that ban the export of motors over 700 watt, which are exactly the kinds used in heavy drones. But then there's the other side of the coin. We share a long land border with China, and there are countless private companies operating in that space. These companies handle transactions, organize shipments, and move parts across the border. And honestly, when you consider how tightly everything in China is monitored and regulated, it's hard to believe that the government doesn't know what's going on.

In fact, it feels more like they're turning a blind eye or maybe even quietly approving. Because if the Chinese authorities really wanted to stop this kind of trade, they absolutely could instantly. And no one would be able to do anything about it.

If the PRC actually supplied Russia with weapons, sure (even though that’s a very different thing from what you initially pointed to). What are those weapons, and why haven’t I heard about them?

Why do you assume that China and Russia would be publicly announcing what China supplies to Russia?

Or are we talking specifically about components and resources that are used in manufacturing weapons in Russia, in which case the PRC also supplies NATO with those.

Except, as the links I've provided in the last reply show, China is actively cutting access to these components for the west.

Yeah, this counts, but this does come very late into the war, and is very different from what you pointed to previously.

How is that different from what I pointed to previously?

My bad. I must have mixed up the PRC going back on its other restrictions during the recent deal with the genocidal hegemon.

Antimony restrictions predate the trade war.

The PRC has made an agreement with NATO to go back on restrictions on rare earths exports.

Only partially, the restrictions on military suppliers still stand.

I’ll believe it when I see NATO stop being able to produce modern weapons instead of using them to enact genocides and colonial reconquest.

That's literally happening right now and it's all over the news. NATO openly admits they're not able to produce weapons and ammunition at the rate they're using them.

Given that the former comes naturally from Russia having to find another export destination while being in a weaker position to negotiate, and the PRC has already gone back on some of the latter, that’s not a way to say that, interesting or not.

You keep repeating that PRC has gone back on some of this, what specifically have they gone back on. Last I checked, the trade is only increasing. Meanwhile, whether it comes naturally or not is entirely besides the point. China is acting as a key stabilizing factor for Russian economy.

Not until your latest comment. Up until then it was ‘the PRC has been doing business as usual with Russia, at a much lower volume than it has been doing with NATO, so it clearly took an action to support Russia’

I simply assumed you did at least cursory googling on the subject you're so passionate to argue about.

I guess it is laughable that there should be cooperation between states outside the imperial core that would involve long-term solutions and be in any way comparable to what the USSR has done.

I can't help but notice that USSR isn't around anymore. Have you considered that there might be a different approach that is more effective, such as the one China is currently pursuing?

I would have loved to live in your fantasy world.

If by living in a fantasy world you mean engaging with reality then sure. The fact that these predictions of an economic crisis in Russia have been going on for three years and the opposite is happening is not giving you any pause evidently.

For starters, what the compradors in Russia asked or didn’t ask the PRC to do in this regard is irrelevant, as the PRC is in a position to coerce them.

Ah yes, Russian sovereignty doesn't matter, and PRC should've been coercing them into what exactly?

So, you look at a semi-peripheral state the industries of which were destroyed in the 90s and which has been reliant on selling cheap resources and labour (while, admittedly, still having a periphery of its own and still having favourable unequal exchange with some of the countries outside of the imperial core, so Russia isn’t in the worst position out there) and on importing expensive finished goods, and can’t see a problem? Really?

So, you look at a state that has more industrial strength than all of NATO and write the above. Keep the bangers coming!

But also, I would prefer to live in the fantasy world where Russia outproduces the entirety of NATO by a large margin in areas like electronics and industrial equipment.

But also maybe spend a bit of time learning about the subjects you attempt to debate?

• https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine
• https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine

Which you only managed to point to after flipping out for no good reason and insisting that the PRC trading with Russia means that the PRC actively supports Russia in the war

I didn't flip anything. This was my position from the start. You're the one trying to make the nonsensical argument that either China enters the war directly or they're not providing support.

I can just as well accuse you of trying to invent a fantasy where your preconceived conclusions hold true, such as in the cases of the sanctions magically not hurting Russia

It's pretty obvious that the sanctions are hurting the west, particularly Europe, far more than they are hurting Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is strengthening ties with the global south and we're now seeing a whole new economy developing entirely outside western control.

Except for ending the conflict more quickly and with lower cost in lives.

If China entered the war directly then it would be almost certain that NATO would do the same. At that point we'd be almost certainly looking at a nuclear holocaust. The fact that you haven't considered this obvious risk clearly shows that you haven't thought about this at all.

NATO doesn’t exactly need a provocation to do things. It will come and destroy more of the world while the PRC stands by.

Yes they do, NATO countries still have to deal with internal politics and growing domestic unrest. The whole narrative in the west has been that Russia is weak and it's struggling in Ukraine in some sort of a stalemate. That makes it very difficult to justify direct intervention which every poll shows would be highly unpopular. In a scenario where China was fighting on the side of Russia, it would be far easier to drum up reasons why the west has to go all in.

Ой, прошу прощения, вы правы. Никого не знаю, никого на улицах и на работе не встречаю, никого со школ и с университетов - включая учителей - не знаю, живу в городе-призраке с нулевым населением. Даже меня там нет.

Ну и что я тоже по русски говорю, тебя это експерем по экономики не делает.

The minister of economic development says that at around the 25:30 mark https://youtu.be/Qtt9RFshDNc?t=1521

Говорит что на грани, все зависит от решений, он хочет снизить ставки. Этот разговор продолжается уже два года.

Are you saying that Reshetnikov or other people responsible for the Russian economy have been making these predictions for the past three years?

Indeed I am, there's been a debate about whether to lower rates or not going on since pretty much the start of the war. Some people are worried that the economy is overheating and they want to keep the rates up, others like him keep talking about a recession if the rates don't come down. It's literally nothing new.

Oh, look. Russian compradors continuing to sell off cheap resources instead of finished goods.

China is hardly going to import finished goods from Russia given that they're the main industrial hub in the world. However, these things are happening as well. https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2024/07/15/how-the-ukraine-war-is-reviving-russias-rust-belt/

I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:

• yewtu.be
• inv.nadeko.net
• yt.artemislena.eu
• piped.video