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Game over. AGI is not imminent, and LLMs are not the royal road to getting there.
(garymarcus.substack.com)
this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2025
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An asteroid impact not being imminent doesn’t really make me feel any better when the asteroid is still hurtling toward us. My concern about AGI has never been about the timescale - it’s the fact that we know it’s coming, and almost no one seems to take the repercussions seriously.
Yes, and there is also the possibility that it could be upon us quite suddenly. It may just take one fundamental breakthrough to make the leap from what we have currently to AGI, and once that breakthrough is achieved, AGI could arrive quite quickly. It may not be a linear process of improvement, where we reach the summit in many years.