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Russia doesn't act logically and there's a positive feedback loop in the command - where each commander reports situation to his commander as better than it actually is, so what Putin hears from his yesmen, may as well be something like:
So yeah, it may be that they're just all bark no bite now, but after enough time doing that there'll be real question "are we actually gonna do it or chicken out?" and that will be solely a question of leaders fragile ego.
Im curious if this is true in any way, or is just armchair chatter. Are there actual reports of this?
You also have to remember the phenomenon isn't new, and the Russian elites expect and adjust for it. There's internal spying going on, and I'm pretty sure Putin would have an idea how the war effort is going, even if there's pretty serious information gaps on which exact parts will fail when.
This is also why they structure their troops the meat-grindery way they do. Sure, counting more bodies as more success is dumb and counterintuitive, but no bodies could either be great success or your unit selling their equipment to go on a bender, so it's better to choose the way that guarantees some kind of combat. My source on that practice is Kamil Galeev.
Kinda yes to both variants.
Russia inflates battlefield gains after a costly summer offensive
It's kinda been the thing at least since Soviet times where the tendency to report higher efficiency overcame any logic, and it wasn't just production plans in with those famous "5 year plans", it also creeped in into military, where there'd be, for example, tank hangar overseer reporting 50% of machines being battle ready to his commander, his commander would report 60, then up next it becomes 70, and like that until defence minister gets "we've got entire 100% machines ready".
What We Can Learn from the Soviet Collapse in: Finance & Development Volume 31 Issue 004 (1994)
Thank you!