Fresh looting for the war chest, old Vlad the Defenestrator thinks
this post was submitted on 27 Sep 2025
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My money's on Poland.
There might be some merits to this. Trump did recently, without a reason, changed his tune to protecting Ukraine again.
He's not stupid to attack a NATO member. So maybe Moldova? But then why is he testing the skies in the other end of Europe and not near Moldova? Nah, he's not going to attack anyone else.
Bait and switch? "Hey everyone look over here!"
Yep, but not just "look over here." He wants them to move their resources and position their defenses to respond from an attack in those areas. That will potentially leave them out of position to respond quickly to whatever he actually does.
Sounds like an efficient way to lose Königsberg, Karelia and Crimea very quickly.
Apparently, Putin never learned to swallow your food in manageable chunks before moving on. I think he will end up choking to death.
It'll work as long as Russia is still useful for China.
Russia’s joint military drills with Belarus has caused Poland to shut down Poland / Belarus border crossings. A lot of Chinese goods are shipped to Europe via rail that goes through one of these crossings, so China is taking notice.
Is it Cambodia?
That would suck cause they just endend that war with Armenia.
Is this you, Ken M?
Moldova is for sure not safe right now.
Yeah, I was reading earlier about Russian misinformation networks relating to Moldovan elections. Scary stuff.
But why? They can't even do one front well, Russia sucks at war
Because if they say so people will get scared and not protest their tax money being gifted to the military industry.
I have a pet theory that Putin is attempting to get a big reaction from NATO, so that he can then internally use that as an excuse why the war in Ukraine did not end well, and why they had to ultimately concede points they earlier held they wouldn’t in the eventual peace negotiations.
Not winning against Ukraine would be shameful for him, especially after all the messaging done about Ukraine not even being a real country.
Not winning against the entirety of NATO, on the other hand, sounds reasonable and understandable. But just saying that isn’t very persuasive. He needs imagery of destroyed Russian equipment in another NATO country or something concrete like that, to show that NATO truly is involved and waging war against Russia. That’s would also justify the initial reasoning for this misguided excursion — NATO is indeed warring against us, it was all justified! See these images of dead Russians in the Baltic Sea! The flaming Russian jets! See the havoc the big bad NATO wreaks on us poor Russians! We stand no chance, we have to settle for peace, those bullies are too strong now, and they are evil in their ways! In order to survive, we must concede a bit, lest NATO comes and bombs you and your family in the night like the thugs they are! gesturing at the constant dramatized imagery of destroyed Russian equipment in some NATO region
I’m convinced the economy, despite currently running on the war, is finally slowly collapsing to the point of it being visible to the peasants, perhaps showing inconvenient signs of that with the gas shortages across Russia, whatever else they are trying to keep under wraps. I think it’s starting to get embarrassing unless something changes and they can play victim to some bigger baddie yet again terrorizing good pious Russians. Maybe they have determined they can’t keep the effects contained no longer, and the seams will start to burst soon, so they need something that justifies the peace negotiations and conceding some of their strict conditions for the peace. Otherwise the people might just start seeing how fucked they are and rise up.
Nice take, I also subscribe to the theory that the Russian narrative is a lot more important than land gains. To be able to sell an "Underdog but growing empire despite evil holding us back" narrative would definitely be useful and a good exit strategy.
Because they’re hoping to pull other “axis” countries into the fold. There’s a wider conflict on the horizon, and Russia has its side it is looking to pull in to assist them. Large scale maybe even world war looms around the corner.
Not saying this is why... but in theory if he can go through another country to do an end around on Ukraine, he can trade that other country to keep Ukraine. Or even if nato needs to defend itself, it might not spend as much on defending Ukraine. Just guesses though. And they still seem like bad reasons.
He's grabbing as much as he can for leverage, so he can trade back part of it for peace, but not all of it. Thus he still grows his empire despite having an army at its breaking point.
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I'll just be over here quietly cheering "two fronts" because I'm sure it'll go well for them
They should try their luck in Afghanistan again.
That would put them in direct competition with us now that Trump wants the air base back and says he is willing to go to war with Afghanistan to do it.
I'm not a history guy, when was the last time invading Afghanistan went well?
They call that place the graveyard of empires for a reason, I don't think it's ever gone well.
I think it was back in 1219. It lasted until just 1227. Does 8 years count as went well? Or is that too short?
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That may sound cheer worthy, but considering they very obviously can't handle even 1 front, attacking another country would have to be for a different reason, a more problematic reason.
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Russia isn't planning to invade Ukraine
- Zakharova on Feb 8 2022.
One guess is all that it should take, given the existing historical precedent.
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