this post was submitted on 02 Apr 2025
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Futurology
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Im pretty skeptical of any "will be common by 2030" or well see this in a "year or two."
There are dozens, if not hundreds of "humanoid" robot startups out there, some with billions of investments and very impressive videos, but not even 1 model for sale anywhere from anyone that fits this niche.
Id throttle back on the timelines and expectations a ways. I did appreciate that this video looked real time and sounded like actual audio, so its main robot was very slow and had loud actuators. Most of these slick videos are sped up and have no real sound. I appreciate their honesty, but most people likely wont want that repetitious noise happening in their home all day, especially for very slow task completion at a cost around $30-150k, with likely $$$ monthly subscriptions.
Still likely a huge market for the above in assisted living to start, especially with the lack of care workers due to high stress and abysmal pay, but "common by 2030" isn't super likely.
My reasoning is based on the fact they are selling similar to these in the $20k price range. Buying them means they cost a fraction of employing a minimum wage worker in western countries.
They are embodied AI, so improving at the rate AI is. That is exponentially. Meaning iterations of these may be 32, 64, 128, etc times more powerful in the 2030s, and even cheaper.
I think it is very reasonable to say they will be common in the 2030s.
I've never wanted a remindme bot more than right now.
This exponential rate of progress has been observed many times with different types of AI, here's a recent example of it.