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Frostpunk creators cancel "Project 8" and lay off staff amid concerns that "narrative-driven, story-rich games" don't sell
(www.rockpapershotgun.com)
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I'm willing to guess up to 3m has been sold across all platforms so far, but this is a major AAA game that was being developed for a full decade, there is no way in hell they didn't spend multiple hundreds of millions on it in total. And those are very low numbers besides. Most big titles sell more than that faster than davg has.
Prototyping and design documentation was likely started a decade ago, but they wouldn't have fully ramped up to a larger team size that's more expensive to sustain for a full decade. In the interim, they put out Anthem, Mass Effect: Andromeda, and remastered the original Mass Effect trilogy. So there is a world where they didn't spend $200M on it, but it also wouldn't surprise me if they hit that number either; and if they did, they'd have to sell about 5M copies to break even (assuming a 70% cut and that not every copy sold is at $70).