Ask Lemmy
A Fediverse community for open-ended, thought provoking questions
Please don't post about US Politics. If you need to do this, try !politicaldiscussion@lemmy.world
Rules: (interactive)
1) Be nice and; have fun
Doxxing, trolling, sealioning, racism, and toxicity are not welcomed in AskLemmy. Remember what your mother said: if you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all. In addition, the site-wide Lemmy.world terms of service also apply here. Please familiarize yourself with them
2) All posts must end with a '?'
This is sort of like Jeopardy. Please phrase all post titles in the form of a proper question ending with ?
3) No spam
Please do not flood the community with nonsense. Actual suspected spammers will be banned on site. No astroturfing.
4) NSFW is okay, within reason
Just remember to tag posts with either a content warning or a [NSFW] tag. Overtly sexual posts are not allowed, please direct them to either !asklemmyafterdark@lemmy.world or !asklemmynsfw@lemmynsfw.com.
NSFW comments should be restricted to posts tagged [NSFW].
5) This is not a support community.
It is not a place for 'how do I?', type questions.
If you have any questions regarding the site itself or would like to report a community, please direct them to Lemmy.world Support or email info@lemmy.world. For other questions check our partnered communities list, or use the search function.
Reminder: The terms of service apply here too.
Partnered Communities:
Logo design credit goes to: tubbadu
view the rest of the comments
The monte carlo paradox - my brain really refused to grok it for a long time.
I'm sorry. I hope you are alright.
If you mean the Monty Hall paradox, this is how I've recently been able to understand it.
You start with a 1/3rd chance of being right. That's a 2/3rds chance you are wrong. Your first pick is likely wrong.
The host now must open a losing door. Since you likely already picked a losing door, the host likely only has one option for which door to reveal.
So since chances are best that you first picked a wrong door, then the host picked the other wrong door. Which means the one that hasn't been picked by anyone yet is likely the winning door.
Edit: Monte Carlo paradox is a thing. My bad.
For this one I like the example: "The surgery fails 9/10 times. The last 9 patients have died. Does that mean you in the clear?"
The monte hall problem is easier to understand if you start with 1000 doors, then take 998 away.
Monte hall?
Yes - the Monte hall problem.