the_wise_wolf

This is going to be my last message since your last message has made it clear to me that you believe in Russian propaganda and I don't care debating with you about lies.

From day 1, Russia has made it clear that it wants to grab the contested territories, and demilitarize Ukraine as a consequence of unimpeded NATO expansion. NATO has ignored Russia's demands and pressed further.

NATO didn't press eastwards. It welcomed countries that wanted to join because they felt threatened. And it is obvious now that they were right to be scared. Russia demands a sphere of influence. But this is unacceptable for its neighbors. Russia is a colonial empire that can only think in these terms. That's why they believe that these countries that want to join NATO don't have a will of their own and are US puppets. Which makes them fair game. This is not only wrong but also inhumane. It takes away the people's dignity and their right for peace.

And for the love of God. Don't forget the war crimes committed by Russian soldiers on a systematic and large scale. Mass executions, torture, rape, etc. Those weren't isolated incidents, they were part of the plan. And Putin himself handed out medals for the commanders of the most notorious units.

Slow and steady wins are wins

That's the point. Since the run on Kiev the russians have lost far more territory than they gained.

With respect to what?

With respect to the Russians. Given the Ukrainian wins, they are clearly doing a better job than the Russians.

You're saying Ukraine will fight to their last breath? The war is becoming increasingly unpopular as time goes on, do you expect this trend to reverse at some point?

I'm saying they won't accept a deal in which Ukraine becomes demilitarized and at Russia's mercy. And that's the only deal the Russians are offering right now. Even if they lose the resources to launch offensives, they will dig in and defend as long as they can. And this might go on not for years, but decades.

Wouldn't any agreed upon peace-deal be acceptable?

Again, the only deal Russia is willing to give Ukraine at the moment is equal to unconditional surrender. That's not a peace deal. It's a farce.

Can they hold it? It seems Kursk is taking away from Ukraine's ability to hold onto key territory.

That remains to be seen. It's also taking away from Russia's ability to attack in those other regions. Also, this attack shows that Russia has been concentrating its troops on the active front (probably because they felt safe because of western weapon restrictions). Russia was enjoying an asymmetrical advantage. Ukraine took that away.

Surrender is out of the question for Ukraine. Russia has shown from the first day of the invasion on, that this war is as much a land grab, as it is a punishment for not being Russian enough.

Russia has been grinding for years now with only miniscule wins, while Ukraine has made some very successful counter offensives. Ukraine simply has the better army. Whether they can win back their territory depends on international support. But even if that fades, I don't see a scenario in which they just give up. And Russia will only give them an acceptable peace deal if Putin fears for his power or has been removed. This is in part why they launched the Kursk offensive. They need to pressure Putin or continue grinding.

Also: Holding Russian land is maybe the best bargaining chip they have for future negotiations.

Yes, Ukraine faces a lot of the same problems. That's why it needs international help. The difference is that even if Ukranians don't want to fight. At least they have a good reason to.

I'm not saying that victory will be easy. All I'm saying is that it's very much possible.

Ukraine needs a steady supply of modern weapons and the freedom to use them on Russian territory. That way they can continue dismantling the Russian military and minimize casualties. The Russians are pulling a lot of equipment from storage and are refurbishing it. But those storages won't last forever. Also, Russia may have a large population (so does Ukraine), but pretty much everybody willing to fight is already fighting. Also economic hardships are only going to increase. In other words, political instability in Russia is increasing and with it Putin's ability to mobilize troops. Don't forget, Putin can pull out at any time without loosing his power. For Ukraine it's about survival.