MaoShanDong

Praying that this is the US's Afghanistan

Once again providing ample evidence on why hating on the fr*nch is a moral imperative.

Tomorrow, in an urgent convention, the Iranian parliament will very likely vote to invoke Article 10 of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which allows signatories to withdraw from the treaty in case of extraordinary circumstances or threats to a nation's most vital interests.

Completely expected at this point. I've personally thought since the retaliatory strikes and the relatively hard line stance the Iranians have projected that escalation towards either the complete destruction of the Iranian state or the completion of their nuclear capabilities and the collapse of Israel/US influence in the region are the only two possible outcomes. Any hope that Iran would forgo nuclear capabilities was completely shattered with the attempted decapitation strike. It is clear to them the west cannot be trusted and thus their continued existence as a state and people can only be secured with the bomb.

On the flip side I disagree with some commentators who view the events of the past week as within the US/Israel's expectations. I think the overall reaction by Israeli society as well as the sudden reactionary movement of US naval assets into the region show that the calculus for the decapitation strike was likely to induce enough chaos and damage to Iranian leadership that they would be forced back to the negotiating table at a much weaker position or even better a coup could be incited with the loss of leadership. Now the calculus has changed since this has failed.

If nuclear capabilities are inevitable for Iran than western influence in the region will wane if nothing is done in the near term as a nuclear capable opposition means many hard power options are off the table. This doesn't even go into the possible spread of nuclear capabilities in the region or even worldwide if the taboo of nuclear acquisition is broken. This is not only existential in nature for Israel as a state due to its expansionary nature but also damaging towards the US's global influence in terms of military which has used the taboo of nuclear proliferation as a means of exerting its own hard power. The West cannot therefore back down now. I'm fully convinced a continued escalation from this point going forward into an eventual war involving the United States in some capacity.

Kyle Rittenhouse copycat perhaps?

As others have stated they need American assistance now. I believe the reality has set in that they've bit off more than they can chew as demonstrated by their attempt to communicate with the Iranians through a third party which got rebuffed. I suppose now the plan is to garner as much western sympathy as possible in order to draw in the Americans and maybe the Europeans into putting boots on the ground or to at the minimum create enough international pushback towards Iran so that they deescalate.

Not much of a war nerd but from my basic understanding the term hypersonic isn't referring to a class of weapons that can go hypersonic speeds but rather those that have a high degree of maneuverability at such speeds. Common missile technology in the modern era should always have result in hypersonic speeds in the terminal phase as at that point the problem is reaching the target fast enough to avoid any terminal phase antimissile defense systems. Insofar no "real" hypersonics have been used as the general trajectory of these missiles should not be in the classical arc pattern we've been seeing in the videos. Instead they would be blitzing over almost horizontally towards the target while moving vertically to avoid any defensive weapons.

And then news was forever mogged by the trans mega.

Yeah as much as the community rails against great man theory we do seem to have a tendency to latch on to it quite often lol

Significant materiel support would also ironically reduce the state's own ability to control the rising discontent we're seeing across the nation right now. They have the capital to either suppress domestic unrest in the long term or support mini satan but I would argue that they cannot sustain both for any significant lengths of time.

Yes. One of the early post Oct 7 observations was the rapid decrease in settler immigration to the point that their own government statistics showed I believe a net outflow for a short time. With the resurgence of violence the well connected and privileged will simply go back to whatever country they hold dual citizenship with. Resources and brain drain will follow and unless the US is willing to inject obscene amounts of money into them even with its own fiscal condition collapsing the clock is ticking for them. It was arguably in their own best interest not to start any shit that could possibly result in a population collapse but their own bloodthirsty nature just couldn't keep itself in check.

Arguably there is no winning for the west assuming Iran doesn't just roll over and die like Syria. For Europe supporting Isn'treal will result in internal strife and issues in regards to Ukraine and run contrary to their own beliefs of an imminent Russian invasion.
For the US it would mean potentially another lost decade fighting a war in the middle east while putting China on the back burner and diverting resources from the Asia and Ukraine Project which they can barely sustain as is. Failing to support the EU against Russia would also continue to strain relations after the tariff wars as well leading to further EU internal strife.
This is on top of domestic issues in the US itself caused by the current administrations numerous policies which will be exacerbated if americans start returning in body bags and trade continues to be disrupted especially if oil ends up spiking exacerbating inflationary issues. At best they can either abandon the Middle East more or less altogether or have a sort of tactical retreat ala ukraine and try to focus on China or they go all in on the ME and attempt to back off the trade war policies thereby abandoning any near term goals in East Asia.

Yup seeing images of settlers violence against the innocent always makes my stomach churn so this is certainly a nice change of pace from the usual doom and gloom.