XPrize Foundation founder Peter Diamandis predicts that millions or even billions of robots that look and move like people could integrate into consumers' homes and workplaces, thanks to technological breakthroughs including artificial intelligence and a looming labor shortage. The market for these robots could hit $150 billion by 2035 and as much as $3 trillion by 2050, according to figures cited by Diamandis.
"It's only now, driven by major advances in sensors and actuators, battery technologies and artificial intelligence, that a new generation of useful and affordable robotic labor is within reach," Diamandis wrote in a recent blog post.
Recent advancements in generative AI, the technology that enables applications like ChatGPT, have taken the world by storm. Generative AI "magnifies a robot's adaptability," Damandis writes, by using "reinforcement learning" combined with decision-making algorithms. Plus, robots have the potential to instantaneously share learned skills with others in their network--something humans cannot do.
The market for these robots could be huge. In a 2022 report, Goldman Sachs predicted the market value of humanoid robots in a "blue sky scenario" could hit as much as $154 billion by 2035. Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of investment management firm Ark Invest, sets the bar even higher, at $1 trillion by 2030. Financial services company Macquarie, meanwhile, anticipates a whopping $3 trillion market for humanoid robots by 2050.
Diamandis extolled the utility of a humanoid robot laboror who "operates 24/7, who doesn't need drug testing, and doesn't call in sick from a fight with their boyfriend or girlfriend," in a recent conversation with Inc.
Light detection and ranging sensors, or LiDAR, is the technology that gives sight to autonomous vehicles--and could do the same for humanoid robots. It works by rapidly firing a laser off of surrounding objects, then using a sensor to measure the length of time it takes for the light to travel out and bounce back, according to the National Ecological Observatory Network. These measurements, used for mapping out surroundings, help robots navigate, according to San Jose, California-based LiDAR company Velodyne Lidar. The size and cost of LiDAR units have shrunk 1,000 times and 100 times, respectively, Diamandis writes, making the technology more accessible.
Driving the demand for humanoid robots is a looming labor shortage as Baby Boomers head into retirement with fewer young workers to replace them, Diamandis notes. This could work to the advantage of workers as robots replace less desirable jobs in industries like manufacturing and agriculture. But more than industry is behind Macquarie's massive market predictions. Wendy Pan, an analyst for Macquarie Research in Japan, sees humanoid robots as the next logical step in a long line of technological advances.
"The car helped to shorten people's commute time. I see the purpose as similar for humanoid robots: to shorten people's time spent on housework, making people's lives easier and more convenient," writes Pan.
Diamandis isn't alone in his sentiments. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and Tesla CEO Elon Musk are among the big names bullish about humanoid robots.
We have now upgraded to Lemmy 19.3 and there should no longer be any issues with 2FA
We are not sure if this is to do with a federation bug in Lemmy 18.x, we are looking to upgrade to 19.x soon though, so this might cure this issue
I can see the rich pouring money into this tech to grow organs for themselves. The clones would need to be segregated though, as otherwise there might be issues with property rights etc. They could be put on an island, the rich have a few spare I'm sure. We could tell the clones that the rest of the world was too damaged for humans to live there. It would need to be hidden perhaps as there would be moral outrage if it was discovered the clones were intended to have organs harvested from them. God help then if one of the clones escapes though.
Wait, no, thats the plot to The Island with Ewan McGregor... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Island_(2005_film)
The problem in my mind is that all the solar panels and wind turbines are being built with fossil fuels, causing even more demand which the oil companies are only happy to fulfil. We need to reduce the amount of energy we use somehow, whilst still maintaining our level of civilisation.
Sorry I didn't get a paywall. Text here:
A couple feet of sea-level rise may not sound like a lot. But if sea levels rose by 2 feet worldwide, the effects on coastal communities would be catastrophic.
Cities such as New York, Miami, and New Orleans would experience devastating flooding. Across the globe, 97 million people would be in the path of rapidly encroaching waters, putting their homes, communities, and livelihoods at risk.
That's what would happen if the Thwaites Glacier, nicknamed the "doomsday glacier," collapsed. But it wouldn't stop there.
Water is seen streaming off of icebergs. Icebergs from the Ilulissat (Jakobshavn) Glacier melting in Disko Bay, Ilulissat, Greenland. Paul Souders/Getty Images
Right now, this massive Antarctic ice shelf blocks warming sea waters from reaching other glaciers. If the Thwaites collapsed, it would trigger a cascade of melting that could raise sea levels another 10 feet.
Already, the melting Thwaites contributes to 4% of global sea-level rise. Since 2000, the Thwaites has lost more than a trillion tons of ice. But it's far from the only glacier in trouble, and we're running out of time to save them.
That's why geoengineers are innovating technologies that could slow glacial melting.
The latest strategy is curtains. That's right — underwater curtains. John Moore, a glaciologist and geoengineering researcher at the University of Lapland, wants to install gigantic 62-mile-long underwater curtains to prevent warm seawater from reaching and melting glaciers.
But he needs $50 billion to make it happen. Drawing the curtains on glacial melting
One of the main drivers of glacial melting is the flow of warm, salty sea water deep within the ocean. These warm currents lap against the sides of the Thwaites, for example, melting away the thick ice that keeps the shelf's edge from collapsing.
As oceans warm because of the climate crisis, these intruding currents are set to increasingly erode the Thwaites, driving it closer to total collapse.
Moore and his colleagues are trying to figure out whether they could anchor curtains on the Amundsen seafloor to slow the melting.
In theory, these curtains would block the flow of warm currents to the Thwaites to halt melting and give its ice shelf time to re-thicken.
diagram of sea curtains This diagram shows how a seabed anchored curtain could block the deep warm water currents from reaching glaciers. Arctic Centre / University of Lapland
This isn't the first time Moore has suggested this blocking solution. His curtain idea is based on a similar solution he proposed back in 2018, which would block warm water using a massive wall.
But Moore said curtains were a much safer option.
He explained that they were just as effective at blocking warm currents but much easier to remove if necessary.
For instance, if the curtains took an unexpected toll on the local environment, they could be taken out and redesigned.
"Any intervention should be something that you can revert if you have second thoughts," Moore said.
While Moore and his colleagues are still decades away from implementing this technology to save the Thwaites, they're in the middle of testing prototypes on a smaller scale. A $50 billion idea
Moore's colleagues at the University of Cambridge are already in the very early stages of developing and testing a prototype, and they could progress to the next stage as early as summer 2025, according to Moore.
Right now, researchers at the University of Cambridge are testing a 3-foot-long version of this technology inside tanks. Moore said that once they'd proven its functionality, they'd move on to testing it in the River Cam, either by installing it at the bottom of the river or by pulling it behind a boat.
River Cam The River Cam, where University of Cambridge researchers plan to test their sea-curtains prototype. Premier Photo/Shutterstock
The idea is to gradually scale up the prototypes until evidence suggests the technology is stable enough to install in the Antarctic, Moore explained.
If all goes well, they could be testing a set of 33-foot-long curtain prototypes in a Norwegian fjord in about two years.
"We want to know, what could possibly go wrong? And if there's no solution for it, then in the end, you just have to give up," Moore said. "But there's also a lot of incentive to try and make it work."
With scaling comes an increased need for funding. This year's experiments are set to cost about $10,000. But to get to the point at which Moore and his colleagues could confidently implement this technology, they'd need about $10 million.
And they would need another $50 billion to actually install curtains in the Amundsen Sea.
"It sounds like a hell of a lot," Moore said. "But compare the risk-risk: the cost of sea-level protection around the world, just coastal defenses, is expected to be about $50 billion per year per meter of sea level rise."
map of sea level rise in NYC This map shows the amount of area in and around New York City that would become submerged if sea levels rose three feet (in red). Climate Central / Google Earth Engine
While some coastal cities, such as New York, have the budget to adapt to rising seas, others won't even come close.
"One of the great driving forces for us is this social-justice point — that it's a much more equitable way of dealing with sea-level rise than just saying, 'We should be spending this money on adaptation,'" Moore said. A race against time
Data shows that the Thwaites lacier, and others like it, are melting at unprecedented rates because of the climate crisis. But the question of when they could collapse remains up for debate among glaciologists.
"We really don't know if [the Thwaites] could collapse tomorrow, or 10 years from now, or 50 years from now," Moore said, adding: "We need to collect better data."
Series of satellite images showing glaciers melting. Satellite imagery shows the extent of damage to the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers and the tearing apart of their shear zones. Lhermitte et al/PNAS
But collecting better data would take time that these glaciers may not have.
Proponents of glacial geoengineering research, such as Moore, believe the time for intervention is now. Other experts disagree, arguing that cutting carbon emissions is the only viable way to slow glacial melting.
While reducing emissions is essential for mitigating the effects of the climate crisis, Moore isn't confident we'll cut back drastically or quickly enough to save the Thwaites. Once it reaches a tipping point, "the glacier doesn't really care anymore about what humans want to do about their emissions," he said.
"At that point, that's when you need these other tools in the box."