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Image is from this article, showing a march by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela Youth. The preamble's information came from a few sources, such as here, here, and here.


Over the last few weeks, pressure on Venezuela from the US has mounted as their newest proxy, Gonzalez, lost the election to Maduro. The Trump administration now alleges that Maduro is the mastermind behind the "Cartel of Suns," raised the bounty on Maduro's head from $25 million to $50 million, and is working to deploy troops and naval assets to the region.

While I would not consider myself an expert, I believe an explicit boots-on-the-ground campaign by the US in Venezuela would be, at best, implausible, though the administration has not explicitly denied it (and even if it did deny it, denials by the US are merely confirmations that are being delayed). What seems much more likely is an intensification of a subversive campaign against Venezuela which seeks to further isolate it, with intelligence from the US given to whatever groups and individuals exist inside the country. There are certainly some parallels in regard to recent US belligerence towards Mexico, with both countries being implicitly or explicitly threatened with military force under the guise of "preventing drug trafficking" - and, of course, spreading drugs is one of America's greatest specialities.

Will this work? I don't know, though I am optimistic about Venezuela's chances. The Venezuelan government does seem to be taking this threat with a refreshing degree of seriousness - with over 4 million militia members being activated across the country as of August 18th, as well as a call from Maduro to the armed forces to be on high alert. The socialist youth of Venezuela are being mobilized in defense of the revolution.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


(page 3) 50 comments
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[–] ClathrateG@hexbear.net 75 points 2 days ago (2 children)
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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 54 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (3 children)

https://archive.ph/SUfBy

New U.S. Anti-Ballistic Interceptor Must Cost Under $750,000 — Is It Even Possible?

The Pentagon is seeking new ways to cheapen the missile defense against modern threats like Iskander or Zircon with a new competition announced the other day. The U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has announced a competition to develop a low-cost interceptor for cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles, with a target unit price not exceeding $750,000. The goal is highly ambitious, but potentially very helpful, considering that a single Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptor costs an average of $4.97 million — and typically two are fired per target. To cut costs, the MDA intends to rely on existing commercial and military components, along with cheap manufacturing practices.

The interceptor must also be designed with modularity and open architecture in mind, enabling easier modernization and sensor integration in the future. The minimum technical requirements include exo- and endoatmospheric interception of ballistic and hypersonic threats — such as russia's Kalibr, Iskander, and Kinzhal missiles. The interceptor should reach speeds of at least Mach 5, have a range of 200 km, and use a high-explosive fragmentation warhead with terminal homing guidance. The interceptor also must support in-flight target updates and trajectory corrections to engage maneuvering hypersonic gliders. At the same time, the system has to fit inside both Patriot launchers and naval vertical launch systems (VLS).

To summarize, the program seeks a unified, budget-friendly interceptor designed to counter the kind of massive mixed salvos of missiles seen in Ukraine — one that doesn't cost all the money in the world. This reflects an adequate understanding of today's priorities, especially against the known shortage of interceptors in NATO countries. However, achieving 200 km range and ballistic missile interception for under $750,000 per unit seems highly optimistic. Perhaps, some innovative design or its manufacturing technique could make it possible, but meeting both performance and cost requirements is surely a difficult task. Submissions to the competition are accepted by the end of September. After that, there will be a six-month preparation phase, followed by a year of prototype development and testing. For now, the objective is limited to "prototype demonstrations," with the full program expected to take two to five years.

Well, I guess finally a tacit admission by the Americans that their air defense equipment costs way too fucking much - note that this is coming on the heels of a whole lot of such munitions being expended defending Israel, plus all the stuff that's been eaten up over several years in Ukraine, so replacement of all that is likely on people's minds. But somehow going down from nearly 5 million to 750k doesn't seem particularly likely. Even eliminating the MIC graft factor, there's just a degree of inherent complexity to such a missile, it's going to end up costing a decent bit even if you are very efficient.

[–] coolusername@hexbear.net 17 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

no profit or technical capability so no

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 28 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Honestly the cost itself doesn’t matter, especially if the entire supply chain is fully sourced within the country. The US government will always be able to pay for however much it costs, since it is the one that issues the currency. If you’re not making one for export, you don’t care so much about cost anyway.

What is limiting are the real factors: labor, expertise, technology, scale of production, availability of materials (e.g. rare earth components) etc. Do you have enough of these?

And perhaps most important of all, is this just MIC grift to get huge payout, or if the US has actual intention of rebuilding its military industries to produce functional weaponry?

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 27 points 2 days ago (1 children)

especially if the entire supply chain is fully sourced within the country

Spoiler: It's not. They require China's rare earths.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 17 points 2 days ago

Correct. As I said, it’s real factor, not the nominal cost that matters.

[–] BobDole@hexbear.net 31 points 2 days ago

It’ll go just like the new ICBM: no one ends up actually bidding because it’s not profitable enough

[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 56 points 2 days ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

https://archive.ph/61nPk

Pentagon Official: Trump Boat Strike Was a Criminal Attack on Civilians

A current DoD official and many military legal experts say the U.S. attack on a boat in the Caribbean near Venezuela broke international law. The lethal strike on a boat in the Caribbean on Tuesday was a criminal attack on civilians, according to a high-ranking Pentagon official who spoke to the Intercept on the condition of anonymity. The Trump administration paved the way for the attack, he said, by firing the top legal authorities of the Army and the Air Force earlier this year.

oh yeah, I'm sure the guys who were probably in the military while it was drone-striking weddings in the Middle East would have totally viewed this as a deeply-immoral attack

more

“The U.S. is now directly targeting civilians. Drug traffickers may be criminals but they aren’t combatants,” the Department of Defense official said. “When Trump fired the military’s top lawyers the rest saw the writing on the wall, and instead of being a critical firebreak they are now a rubber stamp complicit in this crime.” President Donald Trump claimed that the attack was aimed “against positively identified Tren de Aragua Narcoterrorists,” in a TruthSocial post. He continued: “TDA is a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, operating under the control of [Venezuelan President] Nicolas Maduro, responsible for mass murder, drug trafficking, sex trafficking, and acts of violence and terror across the United States and Western Hemisphere.” Trump accompanied the post with a video of a four-engine speedboat cutting through the water with numerous people on board. An explosion then destroys the boat. Trump said the attack killed 11 people. It was unclear whether they were given a chance to surrender before the United States killed them.

After days of silence, the White House issued a statement late Thursday claiming the attack was lawful. White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly said it was “taken in defense of vital U.S. national interests and in the collective self-defense of other nations who have long suffered due to the narcotics trafficking and violent cartel activities of such organizations.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth offered his own justification for the strike the same day. “Every boatload of any form of drug that poisons the American people is an imminent threat. And at the DoD our job is to defeat imminent threats,” he told a group of journalists. “A foreign terrorist organization poisoning your people with drugs coming from a drug cartel is no different than Al Qaeda, and they will be treated as such as they were in international waters.” Two U.S. government officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that Hegseth’s justification – which one called “completely unserious” – took shape after the attack.

hey, even US government officials are (almost) calling things "deeply unserious" now!

Experts said Hegseth’s rationale was flimsy, if not farcical. “Tren de Aragua being designated as a foreign terrorist organization is a purely domestic law enforcement designation. It offers no authority for the military to use deadly force,” said Todd Huntley, who was an active-duty judge advocate for more than 23 years, serving as a legal advisor to Special Operations forces engaged in counterterrorism missions around the world. “Under international law, there’s no way this even gets close to being a legitimate use of force.” Other legal experts have agreed with Huntley, now the director of the National Security Law Program at the Georgetown University Law Center. Members of Congress have echoed the assessment. “Congress has not declared war on Venezuela, or Tren de Aragua, and the mere designation of a group as a terrorist organization does not give any President carte blanche to ignore Congress’s clear Constitutional authority on matters of war and peace,” said Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn, in a statement. “There is no conceivable legal justification for this use of force. Unless compelling evidence emerges that they were acting in self-defense, that makes the strike a clear violation of international law.” Hegseth said the attack would be followed by others. “It won’t stop with just this strike,” he told Fox News on Wednesday. “Anyone else trafficking in those waters who we know is a designated narco-terrorist will face the same fate.”

Diosdado Cabello, the Venezuelan Minister of Interior, Justice and Peace called the Tuesday attack “an illegal massacre in international waters” and said the United States had “violated international law.” Brian Finucane, who worked for a decade in the Office of the Legal Adviser at the Department of State, where he advised the U.S. government on counterterrorism and other military matters, also noted that designating a group as a foreign terrorist organization does not, by itself, provide authority for the use of military force. “Nonetheless, such FTO designations are widely and mistakenly perceived as authorizing such action within the executive branch,” he wrote in a legal analysis published this week. “Thus, designation of Tren de Aragua and a number of other Latin American criminal entities as FTOs in February foreshadowed this week’s attack in the Caribbean, despite providing no actual legal authority for it.” U.S. attacks around the world – from Libya to Somalia – during the war on terror have been justified under strained interpretations of the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force. But despite the Trump administration labeling cartels “narcoterrorists,” experts say there is no plausible argument that the AUMF can apply to Tren de Aragua.

“We knew exactly who was in that boat,” Hegseth told Fox News on Wednesday. The Pentagon has frequently claimed to have killed terrorists when it has instead killed innocents. A 2023 investigation by The Intercept, for example, determined that an April 2018 drone attack in Somalia killed at least three, and possibly five, civilians, including 22-year-old Luul Dahir Mohamed and her 4-year-old daughter Mariam Shilow Muse. At the time, the military announced it had killed “five terrorists” and that “no civilians were killed in this airstrike.” Several experts and government officials speculated that the boat the U.S. struck on Tuesday may not even have been smuggling drugs due to what they said was an unusually large number of people on board the vessel.

Experts and government officials were incredulous that a judge advocate signed off on the strike, variously speculating that any lawyer involved must have been ignored, pressured or simply capitulated to the will of the president. Hegseth fired the Air Force’s and Army’s top judge advocates general (JAGs) in February to avoid “roadblocks to orders that are given by a commander in chief.” The next month he commissioned his personal lawyer, Timothy Parlatore, as a Navy JAG and empowered him to help overhaul the JAG corps, reportedly pursuing changes that would encourage lawyers to approve more aggressive tactics and take a more lenient approach to those who violate the law of war. Parlatore’s prior claim to fame was successfully defending Eddie Gallagher, a Navy SEAL accused of first-degree murder in the death of a captured ISIS fighter as well as the attempted murder of civilians in Iraq. Distinguished former JAGs and members of Congress have repeatedly spoken out about Hegseth’s efforts to undermine the independence of military legal counsel and subvert military justice.

In February, Trump designated Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, MS-13 in El Salvador, and six cartels based in Mexico as foreign terrorist organizations. More recently, the Trump administration added the Venezuelan Cartel de los Soles, or Cartel of the Suns, to a list of specially designated global terrorist groups, alleging that it is headed by Maduro and high-ranking officials in his administration. In July, Trump also signed a secret directive ordering the Pentagon to use military force against some Latin American drug cartels he has labeled terrorist organizations. Venezuelan officials believe Trump may be renewing long-running efforts, which failed during his first term, to topple Maduro’s government. Maduro and several close allies were indicted in a New York federal court in 2020, during the first Trump presidency, on federal charges of narco-terrorism and conspiracy to import cocaine. Last month, the U.S. doubled its reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million. Speaking on Fox News, Hegseth did not rule out regime change by the U.S. in Venezuela. “That’s a presidential-level decision and we’re prepared with every asset that the American military has,” he said.

Two armed Venezuelan F-16 fighter jets flew over the U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer Jason Dunham in the southern Caribbean Sea in a show of force on Thursday. The Pentagon called it a “highly provocative move” that was “designed to interfere with our counter-narco-terror operations” and issued a threat. “The cartel running Venezuela is strongly advised not to pursue any further effort to obstruct, deter or interfere with counternarcotics and counterterrorism operations carried out by the U.S. military,” read the statement released on X Thursday night. Hegseth declined to say what type of weapons were used in the Tuesday strike but referenced “assets that we have in the region” include a “MEU” or Marine Expeditionary Unit “which holds 2,200 combat infantry Marines and has plenty of its own organic assets.” He added: “So we’ve got assets in the air, assets in the water, assets on ships, because this is a deadly serious mission for us.” All told, around 4,500 U.S. personnel, seven U.S. warships and one nuclear-powered attack submarine are either in the Caribbean or are expected to arrive there soon.


[–] Horse@lemmygrad.ml 27 points 2 days ago

The U.S. is now directly targeting civilians.

tf they mean "now"?
the am*ricans have always murdered civilians on purpose

[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 25 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Several government officials suggested to The Intercept that Rear Adm. Milton “Jamie” Sands III, head of Naval Special Warfare Command, was fired by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth late last month due to the admiral’s concerns about impending attacks on civilian vessels in international waters. Pentagon Press Secretary Kingsley Wilson pushed back on the officials’ claims. “No, that’s not accurate,” she replied by email. Sands did not respond to requests by The Intercept for an interview prior to publication. Tuesday’s strike, as carried out, fell under the authority of U.S. Southern Command. Sands oversaw the Navy’s SEAL teams, so would not have been in the operational chain of command for the Tuesday strike, and would not have had authority to approve or reject the planned operation. Last month, more than 30 humanitarian, public interest, immigrant rights, faith-based, veterans’ advocacy, and drug policy reform groups called on Congress to oppose the use of military force against drug cartels in Latin America by the Trump administration.

Melding two failed American wars — the war on drugs and the war on terror — would “put people at risk of violence and destabilize hemispheric relations while hindering, not helping, efforts to protect communities from drug trafficking and other crime,” according to the organizations, which include Alianza Americas, Center for Civilians in Conflict, Drug Policy Alliance, Public Citizen, and Win Without War. “The U.S. posture towards the eradication of drugs has caused immeasurable damage across our hemisphere. It has led to massive forced displacement, environmental devastation, violence, and human rights violations. What it has not done is any damage whatsoever to narcotrafficking or to the cartels. It has been a dramatic, profound failure at every level,” said Omar. “Trump and Rubio’s apparent solution, to make it even more militarized, is doomed to fail. Worse, it risks spiraling into the exact type of endless, pointless conflict that Trump supposedly opposes.”

[–] DogThatWentGorp@hexbear.net 37 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Infighting, brain drain firings and creating the super failed war: "the war on terror + drugs".

Yeah, I'm thinking it's imperial collapse time.

Now we just got a see how many F-35s fall into the carribean due to a hurricane before they even do anything because someone advised trump that god would keep an aircraft carrier safe in a cat5 or something.

[–] Ildsaye@hexbear.net 23 points 2 days ago

China's shipkiller missiles rust away because the Bolivarian Divine Wind already sank the US Navy inshallah

[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 56 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (3 children)

had my attention drawn to this by the RWA pod chuds, but it's a useful resource - apparently LostArmour keeps track of mercenary deaths in Ukraine: https://lostarmour.info/mercenaries

Colombia is massively over-represented here, with nearly 300 deaths, and just about 200 more than the next country - the US. Nearly 90 Americans have died there too. And these are just the confirmed casualties, the artillery-heavy nature of the war likely means there's a whole lot of bodies which are hard to identify, and there have been plenty of instances of the Ukrainian side just not bothering to recover their bodies, and the Russians eventually finding them later in really late stages of decomposition. Plus, the mercenaries are generally not thought of particularly well even by the Ukrainians (much to the disappointment of various Westerners who went in thinking they'd be heroes and then got sent straight into a meat-grinder), so they're likely putting in even less effort in recovering and identifying those guys.

[–] GoodGuyWithACat@hexbear.net 19 points 2 days ago

much to the disappointment of various Westerners who went in thinking they'd be heroes and then got sent straight into a meat-grinder

The reddit brigade post from early in the war was top tier.

[–] ColombianLenin@hexbear.net 46 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Each dead Colombian mercenary is several lives saved here, they can all rot and become worm food in Donetsk for all I fucking care.

[–] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 29 points 2 days ago

Russia is taking out the trash.

[–] SnakeEyes@hexbear.net 17 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Campeón del mundo

Colombia número uno!!!!!!!!!

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[–] Lemmygradwontallowme@hexbear.net 80 points 2 days ago (4 children)

Elbit Systems factory apparently shuttered following Palestine Action campaign - Middle East Eye

Read More

One of defence company Elbit Systems' plants in the UK city of Bristol has reportedly been closed in the wake of a Palestine Action campaign, according to The Guardian.

The Elbit Systems UK site in Aztec West business park was repeatedly targeted by activists, including the day before the group was proscribed as a terrorist organisation by then Home Secretary Yvette Cooper. Actions included lock-ons, rooftop occupations, smashing windows and covering the building in red paint.

The Guardian visited the site earlier this week and said the property was deserted, with "no staff present aside from a security guard stationed in a vehicle parked outside the premises".

The Israeli company, which has drawn criticism for producing weaponry used in the ongoing genocide in Gaza, had held the lease since 2019, with a contract due to run until 2029.

Elbit Systems provides around 85 percent of Israel’s drones and land-based military equipment and has played a major role in supplying Israel with weaponry for its genocide in Gaza.

Private Eye reported last month that the company's British arm, Elbit Systems UK Limited, was close to winning a major contract that would make it a "strategic partner" of Britain's Ministry of Defence (MoD).

The Guardian's report comes as the UK has continued to crack down on supporters of Palestine Action, with police rounding up activists in dawn raids.

Earlier this week, six campaigners seeking to lift the UK government's ban on Palestine Action were charged with terrorism offences for allegedly expressing support for the group.

Defend Our Juries (DOJ) said on Tuesday that six of its key spokespeople had been rounded up in dawn raids, hours before a scheduled news conference announcing that a mass action to challenge the ban would be going ahead this Saturday.

Police said the charges were part of an investigation led by the Counter Terrorism Command, related to the alleged organisation of protests and 13 Zoom calls in support of Palestine Action.

The spokespeople, including former government lawyer Tim Crosland, were held over the custody time limit of 24 hours and had their homes raided, according to DOJ.

DOJ said that during a hearing at Westminster Magistrates' Court on Thursday, the judge granted the defendants bail, rejecting a request by the Crown Prosecution Service to hold them on remand.

The UK government proscribed Palestine Action under anti-terror laws on 4 July, following an incident in which members broke into RAF Brize Norton and attacked with paint and crowbars two planes they said were “used for military operations in Gaza and across the Middle East".

The designation puts Palestine Action on a par with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group, making it a criminal offence under British law to show support for or invite support for the group - punishable by up to 14 years in prison under the Terrorism Act 2000.

[–] Maturin@hexbear.net 38 points 2 days ago

UK had better ramp up its arrests of 80 year olds and holocaust survivors. Only way to shut this down.

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 54 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

Chinese Y-20A Kunpeng transport planes were spotted landing in Moscow Chkalovsky Airport today

Something interesting is happening.

[–] YEP@hexbear.net 24 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Inb4 it's like an aeseptic canning machine for a beverage company or something similar. Heavy lift planes are used for ordinary industrial equipment at times not joking. In the tristate area they would handle large industrial things at Stewart Air Force base.

[–] YEP@hexbear.net 15 points 2 days ago

Also yea I'm fun at parties

[–] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 31 points 2 days ago (1 children)
[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 37 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Yes quite. Something has changed, what is it? I don't know. But I have to imagine this has come off the back of Putin's visit.

[–] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 46 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

Whenever there's a big meeting between Putin and Xi, or any major BRICS or Global South conference, geopolitical analysts will say that they're finally getting serious, but then in the end there's very little momentum, and the 'nothing ever happens gang' stays winning. But with the recent SCO, and Putin now fully pivoting towards Asia (as is evident with the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline agreement), and China signaling that they're ready for deeper cooperation with allies, we might finally see some interesting changes.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 36 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (3 children)

any major BRICS or Global South conference, geopolitical analysts will say that they're finally getting serious, but then in the end there's very little momentum, and the 'nothing ever happens gang' stays winning.

Honestly we only have to look at the data to see where the trend is heading.

This table from China’s Customs tells you everything you need to know about this “no-limits friendship” between Russia and China.

Jan-Jul Total Year-on-Year
Russian Federation Export -8.5% Import -7.7%

So much for the unlimited friendship when it seems Russia is only good at offering energy, raw resources and possibly some military technology.

Similar for the Belt and Road countries:

“Jointly build the countries along Belt and Road Routes” Export +10.4% Import -3.1%

So much for Chinese investment on the Belt and Road countries yet not buying from them to give them the opportunity to earn the money to pay back their creditors.

Who else do you think these Belt and Road countries are going to sell to? There used to be a country that is willing to absorb their surplus goods, but now the Orange King says deficit is too much, and wants to cut back. As a result, China is effectively exporting its unemployment to the countries that are most closely tied to China as a trading partner, because they will be the ones most vulnerable to China dumping its own surplus goods into their countries.

The same goes for the other regions:

Southeast Asia (ASEAN) Export +13.5% Import +0.2%
Latin America Export +7.3% Import -4.2%
Africa Export +24.5% Import +3.6%

Other BRICS members have it even worse:
India Export +13.4% Import -7.1%
Brazil Export -3.0% Import -12.1%
South Africa Export -0.1% Import -8.5%

If BRICS/SCO are serious about forming an independent trade bloc from the US, then they better hurry up with settling amongst themselves how they’re going resolve this huge trade imbalance issue. Otherwise it’s pure mercantilism and the US is happy to sit back and watch these Global South countries getting their domestic industries killed off by the huge volume of Chinese exports directed away from the US/EU market.

This is why I keep saying, for at least a dozen times now, that China has to give up its neoliberal policy and start raising the income of its people such that China can start importing from these countries. The country that runs the record trade surplus (>$1 trillion USD) has the biggest responsibility in this case. Funnily enough, this will almost immediately solve the domestic consumption/deflation problem that China is facing, as the income/purchasing power of their working class is directly raised.

There is simply no reason for an economy as strong as China’s to hoard low/intermediate value-added industries while many other countries simply couldn’t compete with Chinese goods at all.

Actually, there is a reason and you all know what it is: IMF says you need to “balance the budget” (aka “selling cheap goods to the West by running an export-led growth trade surplus strategy”) in order to “climb the global value chain” lol.

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 5 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

This is true, the Russia - China friendship is actually very one sided, and Russia is very much the junior partner in that and honestly is bordering on becoming a Chinese vassal.

However, Russia needs some form of military support currently, even if it's purely defensive. The much hyped summer offensive has achieved little of note, Ukraine hitting a oil/gas/petroleum refinery every few days is not sustainable for the Russian economy (and Chinese oil imports), and the current Ukrainian SEAD/DEAD campaign in Crimea is not sustainable either, Russia even managed to lose an S-500 search radar to Ukrainian TV/human in the loop guided one way attack drones (along with multiple S-400, S-300 and S-300V components). This kind of equipment does not grow on trees, to put it mildly.

[–] LargeAdultRedBook@hexbear.net 21 points 2 days ago (3 children)

You're like the patron saint of framing anything as evidence of this thesis. Absolutely correct btw just funny how many ways you are vindicated.

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[–] companero@hexbear.net 24 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

The CGTN hosts talked about China's "increased political awareness" (on the world stage?) during the Victory Day parade.

China will definitely not give offensive weapons to Russia, but perhaps they could provide some of their new laser air defense vehicles to protect Russian industry.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 26 points 2 days ago

There's two things China would benefit greatly from field testing. Drone defence and drone offence.

Could be either tbh. They won't get another chance for field testing.

[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 64 points 2 days ago (2 children)

This is a minor story in the grand scheme of things, but it illustrates the loss of industrial capacity of the west, and the contradiction between that material reality and how politicians/the public perceive local industrial capacity.

The west coast of Canada has a bunch of ferries run by the government, and they periodically need replacing. The province hasn't built ferries in Canada for decades, and every time contracts are awarded overseas, its a big scandal because people think they ought to be building boats at the Canadian sparks and racism factory. In this article, the ceo of the ferry organization lays out some hard truths about how there is no option to build these boats in Canada.

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-ferries-ceo-explains-what-take-build-major-ferries-bc

[–] sisatici@hexbear.net 43 points 2 days ago (1 children)

it is fucked up how west relies on third world countries for even repairs of major equipment

to keep my anonymity I am going to describe what sector I work vaguely. I work at an factory that makes equipment for electric power distribution. equipment I talk about is not niche, even our accessories are standardized.

we struggle to find any workshop to do minor repairs to products we export to west. many times they have to be shipped thousands of kilometers away to us or another 3rd world country

[–] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 35 points 2 days ago

Previously, internationally constructed ferries have been built in Germany, south Korea and China. These aren't third world countries.

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 55 points 2 days ago (7 children)

OpenAI Says Its Business Will Burn $115 Billion Through 2029

That's about $80 billion higher than the company previously expected

[–] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 33 points 2 days ago

fire Healthcare pls yes-honey-left fire

[–] BigBoyKarlLiebknecht@hexbear.net 26 points 2 days ago (2 children)

Ahh yes, the famous “costs will come down” narrative that tech bros love to espouse

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[–] Lisitsyn@hexbear.net 29 points 2 days ago (2 children)

please pop the bubble already

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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 50 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (7 children)

an interesting thread about how focus on special forces causes the regular infantry to decline in quality https://xcancel.com/ArmchairW/status/1964131097899393419

Reform of the US Army: The Infantry Brain Drain

The US Army's "line" infantry units are in practice fourth-rate formations that have been systematically stripped of talented personnel. How is this? Well, it's quite simple - there are multiple "tiers" (literally called that) of elite infantry or special forces units in the US Army that draw their personnel from the same pool of personnel that populates the Army's infantry line. Getting into one of these units - the Rangers, the Green Berets, the constellation of spooky black ops units "above" normal SF - is a massive prestige boost and career enhancer for soldiers. Even a Ranger scroll - let alone a green beret - opens doors for Army and post-service civilian careers that a blue cord simply does not. Ambitious and talented soldiers - predominantly infantrymen - are thus aggressively sucked into a small, concentrated pool of elite troops and out of the line units that provide the foundation of the US Army's combat power.

How much of an effect does this have on the Army's line infantry? Let's run the numbers: The US Army currently has 32 active-duty brigade combat teams, where the large majority of the Army's infantry force resides. Between them (and assuming they're at full strength with thousand-strong, going-to-Afghanistan light and Stryker infantry battalions, which is a huge stretch these days) the force has approximately 74,000 infantrymen on strength in line units. The US Army also maintains the 75th Ranger Regiment, 1st Special Forces Command, and feeds into a number of black ops units. This amounts to something on the order of:

  • 2,000 "scrolled" Ranger infantry in the Ranger Regiment
  • 4,000 Green Berets in the five active-duty Groups and elsewhere in SOCOM
  • 1,000 operators in spooky units

This is a total of 7,000 personnel - representing the best 10% of the US Army's total dismounted combat force - concentrated into elite units. The effect that removing such a large number of high-performing personnel from line units will have on the residual effectiveness of those line units is obvious. It's tantamount to the removal of a badass, aggressive, high-performing leader from every line infantry squad in the Army. Anyone with even a little familiarity with the military will know immediately what kind of effect that has. The utility that the Army gets out of this vast SOF enterprise does not compensate for the damage that's done to line units to create it. Ranger missions are duplicative of the regular light infantry. The Green Berets have a track record of 60 years of consistent failure to accomplish their core mission of training effective local irregular forces. And the spooky guys were infamous for rampaging into line unit AOs during the late war and undoing months or years of careful counterinsurgency work to get random mid-level bad guy scalps.

So what's to be done about this? Easy - prune SOCOM with a chainsaw and watch the regular infantry rise to the challenge.

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