this post was submitted on 23 Jun 2025
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Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.


Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?


Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] ClathrateG@hexbear.net 58 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (8 children)
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[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 58 points 2 months ago (12 children)

NPR

As Iran and Israel fought, people turned to AI for facts. They didn't find many.

It's unknown what percentage of people use AI for news but it could very roughly be ~7%.

Social media companies and makers of AI chatbots have not shared data about how often people use chatbots to seek out information on current events, but a Reuters Institute report published in June showed that about 7% of users in the dozens of countries the institute surveyed use AI to get news. When asked for comment, X, OpenAI, Google and Anthropic did not respond.

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[–] gingerbrat@hexbear.net 58 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (6 children)

UK to buy 12 F-35A fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons

Downing Street says the purchase will be the ‘biggest strengthening of the UK’s nuclear posture in a generation’.

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 58 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (5 children)

Something I missed yesterday, to do with this, the entombment of underground nuclear facilities in Iran. Israeli public broadcaster Kan News is now reporting that there is an unofficial agreement/understanding that Iran can't excavate their underground nuclear facilities, otherwise they'll face US military action. The facilities have to remain entombed, at least for now. Israeli state media source so of course remain highly skeptical, but it does line up with the events of the past few days. It also shows that Israel at the very least is pushing hard to keep these facilities entombed. The only thing Iran have done so far is fill up the two craters at Natanz from the two GBU-57 MOP strikes there with lots of soil. Good idea to prevent any potential radiation leakage.

The US warned Iran to stay away from nuclear sites bombed in recent strikes, to prevent Tehran from recovering enriched uranium possibly buried beneath the rubble.

American and Israeli intelligence are closely monitoring the Fordow and Isfahan facilities, where uranium stockpiles may have been stored prior to the attacks, Kan News reports.

A senior Israeli official told Kan that if Iran attempts to extract the uranium, “it’s up to the US” to decide how to respond.

English translation of the Kan News report

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[–] Torenico@hexbear.net 57 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (8 children)

The DPRK undergoes testing for their new AEW&C aircraft, based on a modified Il-76 model. It appears that it will be online shortly. It has been under development for around 2 years.

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[–] Antiwork@hexbear.net 57 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (6 children)

I heard a new claim about Mao today and I have no idea what this person is talking about, but they were saying they didn't like him bc he racialized China. Where does this bogus claim come from.

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[–] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 57 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (27 children)

apologies Xi, I will now trust the plan

edit: this is in response to my (and others', but definitely my) pessimism and lack of understanding about why China isn't helping out Iran, but now I understand: it genuinely wasn't China's fault

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 57 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Another wave of ballistic missiles launched towards Israel.

Must say that it's a welcome change of pace for Israel to be on the receiving end of it's usual tactics.

[–] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 57 points 2 months ago (11 children)

So Israel can wipe out all of Iran's senior government whenever it feels like and there's nothing Iran will ever do about it. It is a state without sovereignty

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 56 points 2 months ago (3 children)

❌striking 10 billion intel fab

✔ striking some residential building

it's like every enemy of usa is hit with dumbfuck beam, same with russia

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[–] HarryLime@hexbear.net 56 points 2 months ago (3 children)
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[–] GnastyGnuts@hexbear.net 56 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (7 children)

I've seen a few people say that closing the Straight of Hormuz would possibly be a bigger issue for China than it would be for the US, or at least that it would be strongly against China's economic interests for that to happen. My question then: isn't it especially important for China to keep their ally in power and prevent pro-US regime change so that the US-western block couldn't deliberately close the Straight to harm them in economic warfare?

If I understand correctly from what I've read throughout this thread, Iran hasn't shown proper urgency in asking China for weapons (in comparison with Pakistan's relationship with China, for example), but I'm surprised China hasn't urged them more? Perhaps they have privately and Iran's leadership was doofy enough to actively refuse them (I could certainly buy it at this point), but it seems like China would benefit from chatting them up again after all this and talking them into being smart before they end up in western hands.

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[–] Blockocheese@hexbear.net 56 points 2 months ago (3 children)

We're back to business as usual in the Israeli pokemon go groups

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[–] PalestinianDream@hexbear.net 56 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

heard from family in Irbid jordan missiles seem to be headed towards the zionist entity rn

also found out multiple missiles have fallen in irbid near my familys houses and injured multiple ppl. curse jordan for shooting missiles down over their own people

Edit: some missiles may have been intercepted, cousin said at least 2 fell in his neighborhood

15 second clip my cousin sent of what i think is interception attempts out of his bedroom window, footage over Irbid Jordan about 15 min ago:

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[–] SexMachineStalin@hexbear.net 56 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (4 children)

Hey, has Mandla Mandela been released from prison in Egypt and allowed to return to South Africa yet? Haven't heard any updates and searching news/results from up to a week ago turn up a blank.

It's not a mystery that the Nazi Apartheid regime has an axe to grind with anyone related to Nelson Mandela in particular, with an abduction/assassination plan even being underway last year prior to the cancellation of the 2024 Freedom Flotilla.

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 56 points 2 months ago (14 children)

trump-drenched : "Stupid AOC, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the “dumbest” people in Congress, is now calling for my Impeachment, despite the fact that the Crooked and Corrupt Democrats have already done that twice before. The reason for her “rantings” is all of the Victories that the U.S.A. has had under the Trump Administration. The Democrats aren’t used to WINNING, and she can’t stand the concept of our Country being successful again. When we examine her Test Scores, we will find out that she is NOT qualified for office but, nevertheless, far more qualified than Crockett, who is a seriously Low IQ individual, or Ilhan Omar, who does nothing but complain about our Country, yet the Failed Country that she comes from doesn’t have a Government, is drenched in Crime and Poverty, and is rated one of the WORST in the World, if it’s even rated at all. How dare “The Mouse” tells us how to run the United States of America! We’re just now coming back from that Radical Left experiment with Sleepy Joe, Kamala, and “THE AUTOPEN,” in charge. What a disaster it was! AOC should be forced to take the Cognitive Test that I just completed at Walter Reed Medical Center, as part of my Physical. As the Doctor in charge said, “President Trump ACED it,” meaning, I got every answer right. Instead of her constant complaining, Alexandria should go back home to Queens, where I was also brought up, and straighten out her filthy, disgusting, crime ridden streets, in the District she “represents,” and which she never goes to anymore. She better start worrying about her own Primary, before she thinks about beating our Great Palestinian Senator, Cryin’ Chuck Schumer, whose career is definitely on very thin ice! She and her Democrat friends have just hit the Lowest Poll Numbers in Congressional History, so go ahead and try Impeaching me, again, MAKE MY DAY!"

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[–] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 55 points 2 months ago (2 children)

“An army from a people, and a people who are all an army. The descendants of the Ansar today renew their honorable presence with the greatest values ​​of courage, generosity, and loyalty to God's messengers and religion. They congratulate the Iranian people on a victory that strengthens their steadfastness with Gaza. Million-man march: "Blessed be Iran's victory... and steadfast with Gaza until victory." #Sanaa #Sabaeen_Square”

http://t.me/army21ye

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[–] very_poggers_gay@hexbear.net 55 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

anybody have news on the members of Madleen? I remember reading that most of its members were deported, but I feel like that story was dropped and forgotten about before everyone was released. Is there any news on whether there are still members being held hostage by israel?

Today was the first time I thought of it in a few weeks

edit: As of ~ 1 week ago, everyone was free, as per Omar Faiad, who was part of the flotilla

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[–] Cherufe@hexbear.net 55 points 2 months ago

Damn Jara might actually win the primary this is massive for chilean communists

[–] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 55 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

In case you’re wondering how Palestinians are taking the news, here are some reactions to the ceasefire

Below is the announcement in a Jenin-based telegram group

“We were given the choice between war and shame, and we chose shame, and war will be imposed on us in the end...”

https://t.me/jeniincamp/112159

“The Arabs stopped the war on Iran, but they didn't stop the war on Iraq, nor did they stop the massacre in Gaza, nor did they deter the butcher of Syria.

Do you now realize how dwarves they are?

What cheap people are cheering for these regimes?”

https://t.me/jeniincamp/112165

“Don't forget your men in Gaza, they are still slaughtering the children of Zion morning and night. May God bless you, O soldiers of Al-Qassam, and may God be pleased with you and satisfy you.“

https://t.me/jeniincamp/112166

[–] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 55 points 2 months ago (15 children)
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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 55 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)

Part of a Fattah-1 booster stage landed in Israel this afternoon or morning.

If Iran continues ballistic missile attacks on Israel, we will see a lot more of these.

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[–] fever@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago (3 children)

Don't want to make nuclear bombs? Then at least make ICBMs for God's sake.

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago (4 children)

Trump: “They don’t know what the fuck they’re doing”:

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[–] Quaxamilliom@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Hopefully the censorship regime in occupied Palestine falls and we can get a glimpse of the real damage Iran did to the apartheid state. I really want to see the satellite photos of their air/military bases before they start fixing them up.

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[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago (9 children)

In lighter news, Zohran Mamdani received a big endorsement today:

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)
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[–] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago

lmao the Americans are wasting interceptors on the incoming missiles, looks like they don't want their expensive facilities broken

DEGRADE, DEGRADE, DEGRADE

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (12 children)

Looks like Iran fired off a bunch of old Qiam missiles (SCUD C derivatives) at the US military base Qatar. I honestly thought these missiles were out of service, which is why I didn't include them in my previous post . 14 missiles for the 14 GBU-57 bombs dropped on the nuclear facilities, a very symbolic attack/response/retaliation. The old missiles with no capability to maneuver, fired at a single target in a country with over a dozen Patriot batteries (11 Qatari batteries and multiple US military batteries) explain the high interception rate. Again, a very lobsided exchange in favour of the USA, like 2020. Honestly it's an even weaker response than Iran's 2020 response to the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, which at least made use of the more modern missiles alongside the Qiam, and did some serious damage, assuming that there are no more US or Iranian responses.

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[–] YEP@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (6 children)

Im not doubting the veracity of it but the opioids in flour thing with the "humanitarian" aid in Gaza is bizarre. Part of me thinks that the jackbooted mercs were smuggling drugs on the side and mixed up the bags like a bunch of idiots.

Edit. Thinking more w my tinfoil hat. western intelligence agency's/governments might care less about how this new organization is meant to control gazans and just want another black box for laundering money or we. The "charity" is way more opaque than things like the world food program or unwrap.

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago (5 children)

Has Trump said "Mamdani" yet?

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago (6 children)

Confirmed victory of the left in Chile's primary elections - Prensa Latina

Article

Santiago de Chile, Jun 29 (Prensa Latina) With almost all the votes counted, the victory of the left wing in the primary elections of the bloc of government parties, grouped in the Unity for Chile coalition, was confirmed today.

The last report of the Electoral Service (Servel), corresponding to 99.37 percent of the polling stations, ratifies the victory of the candidate for the Communist Party of Chile, Jeannette Jara, with 60.20 percentage points.

The candidate of the Party for Democracy, Carolina Tohá, who had the support of the Socialists, Liberals, Radicals and Christian Democrats, finished in second place with 28.03 percent.

Thus, the predictions that the event would be defined between two women, Jara, former Minister of Labor, and Tohá, former Minister of the Interior, were confirmed.

Gonzalo Winter, proposed by the Frente Amplio, the party to which President Gabriel Boric belongs, was third with 9.02, and the last place went to Jaime Mulet, of the Federación Regionalista Verde Social, who reached 2.75 percent.

The Servel informed that one million 413 thousand 285 citizens participated in the elections, who cast one million 365 thousand 731 valid votes, 33 thousand 659 invalid votes and 13 thousand 804 blank votes.

The total number is below the thresholds considered adequate for a vote of this nature, which ranged between 1.5 and two million. A total of 15.4 million citizens were eligible to participate.

Among the reasons for the low turnout were the harsh weather this Sunday, which in several central and southern regions of the country was below zero degrees, and the voluntary nature of the vote.

The president of the Servel, Pamela Figueroa, told Prensa Latina that as the day progressed, the number of people going to the polls increased after a morning with a low turnout.

The official assured that the day passed with total normality in the country.

Everything is now ready for the November 16 presidential elections and an eventual second round, scheduled for December 14, where Jeannette Jara, at the head of the Unity for Chile alliance, will face right-wing and extreme right-wing parties.

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[–] mechwarrior2@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago (4 children)

https://archive.ph/JwkYV

Bloomberg - Jane Street Boss Says He Was Duped Into Funding AK-47s for Coup

brow

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