Update on the US military buildup against Iran. 17 mid air refueling aircraft on the move. F-35s and F-16s confirmed in tow, F-22s highly likely, and F-15Es suspected.
this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
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Bulletins and News Discussion from June 16th to June 22nd, 2025 - Iran, Harden Your Heart
(hexbear.net)
Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.
Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.
Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).
Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.
I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.
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Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Iran shooting down an F-22 would be pretty great
are those better than f35s? I don't know shit about all these makes and models of military fuck
Far better fighter aircraft, but not meant for multirole missions (air to ground stuff). Original idea is that in a peer to peer war they’d fly cover and other aircraft would handle that. Iran just doesn’t have much of an air force though.
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Lots of bombings taking place throughout Western Iran and Tehran, as expected and has happened over the past few days.
Al Jazeera
New missiles launched from Iran spotted over Tel Aviv, occupied West Bank
According to reports in Israel, up to 10 missiles have been launched from Iran. A short while ago, sirens sounded in Amman. Just as we were coming on air, they sounded in Amman another siren, indicating that the missiles were not over Jordanian airspace any more. They were sighted over the occupied West Bank and Tel Aviv.
At this time, there are no confirmed reports of missile impacts. Israeli medical and emergency services have not reported treating any injuries. There is also no visual confirmation of any strikes so far. The area in Israel where alarms have been triggered is extensive, stretching beyond the boundaries of the larger Tel Aviv district.
On Air Force One - Trump told a CNN reporter why he left G7 ~44 seconds - https://www.youtube.com/shorts/KkjPW42OFf4
the big sweaty wet boy is up to something
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About an hour ago Trump posted a creepy, fundie screenshot of a post written by Mike Huckabee. I put that shot into a "image to text" website. I couldn't find a single transcription. Fucking US media.
From Mike Huckabee, a Pastor, Politician, Ambassador, and Great Person!
Mr President, God spared you in Butler, PA to be the most consequential President in a century-maybe ever. The decisions on your shoulders I would not want to be made by anyone else. You have many voices speaking to you Sir, but there is only ONE voice that matters. HIS voice. I am your appointed servant in this land and am available for you but I do not try to get in your presence often because I trust your instincts.
No President in my lifetime has been in a position like yours. Not since Truman in 1945. I don't reach out to persuade you. Only to encourage you. I believe you will hear from heaven and that voice is far more important than mine or ANYONE else's. You sent me to Israel to be your eyes, ears and voice and to make sure our flag flies above our embassy. My job is to be the last one to leave. I will not abandon this post. Our flag will NOT come down! You did not seek this moment.
This moment sought YOU! It is my honor to serve you! Mike Huckabee
Trump certainly has supporters who need ALT text. I guess they have to transcribe their hero's screenshots again and again and again and again and...
the most consequential President in a century-maybe ever
Go on, Mike, keep tempting Fate.
I saw an unverified post earlier claiming that Huckabee and Netanyahu got into a shouting match over the ability of Americans to leave Israel, with the idea being that Israel wanted to increase the chance of American deaths and force their involvement.
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NYT
Israel will no longer be able to provide its civilians with a 15-to-30-minute warning ahead of incoming Iranian missiles, a practice it largely maintained since Iran’s counterattack began, Lt. Col. Tali Varsano Eisman, an officer in the Israeli Home Front Command. She told N12, an Israeli TV channel, that the military now faces “difficulties in identifying” missiles fired on Israel and recommended that people spend the night in shelters or close to a safe space. She did not elaborate on why.
The Israeli military said in a statement that there are no changes in the Home Front Command’s guidelines, adding that “if there are any updates, they will be communicated through the official channels.”
She did not elaborate on why
Ooh ooh can I guess!?
I am legitimately am confused, I thought that Saudi Arabia and Jordan and now Syria would be littered with systems that detect as soon as Iranian drones and missiles enter the air so as to warn Israel as soon as possible.
Assuming this announcement were true (as in, they cannot give forewarning, instead of will not):
Even the slower missiles take like 15 minutes to arrive in Israel. I bet the Iranian air defenses and counterintelligence sweeps have started to make monitoring launch sites harder.
Much of the Israeli early warning apparatus relies on satellite imagery of missile forces around Iran, and probably some ground intelligence. If movement around these bases is restricted by Artesh or Militia, you're probably gonna have a harder time approaching launch infrastructure.
Maybe it's not that they can't provide the warning, it's that they don't want Iran to be able to wake everyone up and make them move a half dozen times per night. That has to be terrible for already-shaky settler morale
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another crack in the façade of technoinvincibility. may the settlers never feel safe in their stolen land again
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Is there any refutation of zei_squirell's post from the other day that I can read up on? This war's forecast seems heavily in the US/Israel's favor.
Elijah Magnier - https://xcancel.com/ejmalrai/status/1934783722789691813#m
If Israel were to assassinate Sayyed Ali Khamenei, Iran would simply appoint another Supreme Leader. The institution would remain intact — just as it did after the death of Imam Khomeini. What such an act would truly trigger is a wave of popular mobilisation against Israel and a grave threat to the safety of every Israeli abroad.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategic calculus is not only dangerously shallow but emblematic of a broader collapse of international norms. His willingness to resort to targeted assassinations, car-bomb tactics reminiscent of terrorist operations, and open declarations of war against sovereign states — without consequence or international censure — signals the erosion of the very foundations of international law. Worse still, these actions are often met not with condemnation, but with tacit support or silence from the international community.
Also, on this vid (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iHpCUmoqaI) he mentions that the decisivity of the war depends on:
- How long Israeli civil society is willing to put up with the difficulties of bombardment.
- How sustaind Iran can keep up said bombardment.
- The cohesiveness of Iranian civil society.
On the question of Is it possible that Israel wants to kill Khamenei, he thinks its 100% certain they want to kill him, yet this is not the decisive action that changes the course of the war because the Army has already put a solid chain of command that follows Khamenei's orders even on his death.
I am of the opinion that people at the highest echelons of power in the west are not actually geniuses who have carefully studied Marxism and materialism and have an accurate understanding of reality. They by and large believe their own bullshit. I don’t doubt that if the west ever came after the DPRK, they would definitely attempt to assassinate Kim and would genuinely believe that would unravel the DPRK government.
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Iran is not Khamenei. I thought it was a pretty antimaterialist reading because, as much as it's possible that the Zionists reduce Iran's deterrence to make assassination of the Ayatollah possible, they still aren't going to cause a Libya or Syria style completely collapse with only assassinations, they'd need boots on the ground or proxies fighting actively to take territory in Iran (she did allude to this possibility but the kinds of proxy networks needed to destroy Iran take years to build).
Agree. The older population has seen this before and deposed the US puppet, and the younger ones have learned about it their entire lives AND saw Saddam get blasted by his own puppet masters. There is no appetite the military or civilian populations for regime change, and the attacks were brazen in their lack of logic. I think any assassinations will harden resolve rather than weaken it.
My refutation is telling the squirrel to chill and trust the plan