geteilt von: https://feddit.org/post/8357814
The left side of the graph shows the results, the right side shows possible coalitions
The shit neo-Nazi filled AfD gained a lot of ground. WTF.
this post was submitted on 23 Feb 2025
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Can someone please explain this for a non-German. I know there was a large concern with the AfD, but what do the results mean so far?
Germany will probably get a centrist-right (CDU/CSU) government with a centrist-left junior partner (SPD).
Centrist-right is far left in US terms.
I expect stagnancy in German politics for the next 4 years. -_-
As a foreigner in Germany, CDU is not centrist at all. Maybe you should consider how your definition of "center" changed in the last years. CDU is a right wing party, CSU even more, leaning into populist views, Afd is extremist.
I wish SPD was left. Most of its policies of the last years were pretty much the same as right wing parties.
CDU was always center-right and SPD center-left. In the last years SPD slowly drifted to center. Some still consider them center-left.
You should check on the definition of extremist. The AfD ist far-right, yes, but not extremist (yet).
The CDU always has contained everything from centre-left to far-right, as long it's compatible with democracy. Their right wing is about en par with Reagan, their left wing with, dunno, Harris, status quo liberals in general. They're not about to abolish public healthcare, gutting unemployment benefits OTOH is up their alley. Social conservatism wise they tend to brake a lot, but aren't prone to be regressive, like wanting to roll back gay rights or something. Or, differently put, they won't be any more conservative the EKD which is absolutely fine with reverends having gay sex in the vicarage as long as it's monogamous.
CDU/CSU are basically what Republicans have been a couple years ago. They are very much far right, just not facist.
Without divine intervention we will get Friedrich Merz as chancellor, the guy who just one month ago was fine with working together with the Neo Nazi party Afd.
So even if a coalition between CDU and Afd isn't happening, our chancellor is kinda Trump light. Mostly in it for himself and his industry buddies, no political experience and not used to doing compromises. And if somebody criticizes him, he cries like a little baby how unfair we are treating him for calling him a fucking fascist sympathizer.
So I expect a shitty time, but it looks like CDU and Afd can't rule alone and the party that is responsible for the whole fiasco, the liberal FDP, got kicked out of the parliament, so at least that is a silver lining.
Aside from what the others have said, there is also a 2nd exit poll, with slightly different estimations. If reality will match this one, the BSW will get into parliament. They are a splinter party of the leftists, taking a most of the tankie nutcases with them.
They won't be in government or important opposition, but if they make it, the 2 centrist parties alone don't have enough seats. This means they need a 3rd party to form a government, and they have no good options. The preferred party would be FDP, but they are estimated to not make it. The greens would normally be up to it, but CDU/CSU campaign has mostly run on getting the greens out of government. And the Leftist, BSW and AFD are all too extreme for the very pensioner friendly CDU/CSU.
There is a chance we simply won't have a stable government and will have to redo this election, but from most to least likely:
- Reality is closer to the first poll, boring centrist government, AFD can try again in 4 years
- The CDU will make some meaningless concessions to the greens and the greens will fall for it
- The CDU will completely destroy any trust and form a government with AFD
- There won't be any stable government and a new election is called.
- Any Leftists in Government
- There won't be a stable government, our president still elects a chancellor, we will have 4 weeks of a minority government and then someone triggers new elections.
Hope it'll stay closer to ARD's exit poll, with FDP and BSW both under 5%. Grand coalition is the best we can reasonably get. It'll be way more stable than any 3-party coalition and I think we really need a stable government capable of getting shit done these next few years.
Problem is, that CDU, SPD will likely be the coalition, where the SPD has no Backbone while the CSU can do whatever the fuck they want (which is paving the way for AfD)
In my opinion, the AfD stands to gain far more from another ineffective, quarreling 3-party coalition than from a CDU government with a pushover SPD. That way, the greens will also have an opportunity to rebuild their strength in opposition for the next election. They won't have that while governing with the CDU. Believe me, it's far from my preferred coalition, but I think it would be the best with the hand we were dealt.
That may be true. I dont know what effect would be more important. We will never know.
Would it not be possible for a 3-party coalition to be perfectly stable? We've had many of those in the Netherlands that went just fine, I believe. Though I guess given the lack of a threshold, those parties might differ less than they do in Germany?
If German politicians behaved like adult human beings, and did, as they are supposed to, work for the good of the entire country, then, this would work. The problem is that they don't, most of the time.
Possible maybe, but such a coalition would either involve the Greens, who are absolutely despised by parts of the Union to the point of Bavarian Minister-president Markus SΓΆder declaring them their main enemy and ruling out any coalition, or the FDP, who sabotaged our previous government, caused its collapse and is thus hated by the SPD. The BSW is not a realistic coalition partner with its Pro-Russian stance. So any option for a 3-party coalition would likely result in a lot of conflict and chaos in my opinion. Chaos which the AfD can use to its benefit.
I kinda wondered about BSW though. They are left, they are anti-immigration and they are capable of pulling votes from AfD and Die Linke - the two parties that compete most with CDU/CSU and SPD, respectively.
So they could be quite a strategic partner.
BSW is basically the United Russia party of Germany. And they will not get any seats in parliament according to the current projections.
They have repeatedly made it clear that for them to even consider a coalition, the other parties would have to agree to stop all support for Ukraine and make peace with Russia with a full normalisation of relations. Sarah Wagenknecht won't budge on that, and that makes any coalition talks with them unfeasible for the other parties.
BSW completely depends on their (Co-) party chairwoman and name giver Sahra Wagenknecht who is simply unwilling to bear gouvernmental responsibility. And she is considered to be a russian mouthpiece.
Merz ruled out to form a coalition with BSW and I don't see any sane person who would try to sway this decision.
Note, currently BSW and FDP are both below 5 percent which means they won't get into the Bundestag which drastically changes the number of seats the other parties get. As long as they don't go over 5 % a coalition between the Union and SPD is possible.
That's the goal, isnt it? Otherwise it will become another turmoil coalition
I had some hope for a Union + Greens coalition but it doesn't look like that will be possible.
SΓΆder pretty much declared the Greens their main enemy. I don't think there'll be a coalition of CDU/CSU and Green in the Bundestag until CxU declares a new main enemy (why not AfD?).
SΓΆder understands the difference between electoral rhetoric and Realpolitik and so do CSU voters. And theatrics. He can go "I'll keep an eye on those breaknecks, make sure they don't convince the CDU of anything stupid", occasionally make noise, and keep it at that.
The "main enemy" thing is absolutely true, of course, just have a look over the border to BW. But that's about state, not federal, politics, and as long as the CSU keeps ruling Bavaria they're happy.
Depending on which statistician you are asking they also might have just enough to get in
About what was expected.
Good news for Die Linke, bad news for the Greens, rest looks pretty similar to polling over the past week.
The Greens lost the least votes from all the members of the last coalition. SPD and FDP have huge losses.
Not necessarily so bad for the Greens. They are the only party of the current government that has not lost a massive amount of votes. They have more or less maintained their position, so not good, but not bad either.
The Greens did very well given the amount of shit thrown at them. SPD and FDP did worse
Iβm talking about compared to the polling averages.
Even there I don't see them doing particularly bad. Also the ARD Exit Polls differ a bit from the ones from ZDF
The Graphic shows all polls averaged of the last 90 days
I'm sorry my dear Europeans ππ₯
It's not that bad. There is a "firewall" around the AfD, so a coalition with the CDU isn't possible.
Dude, that "firewall" was set ablaze weeks ago by the CDU...
/s ?
No worries ppl. It can only get worse!
Worst possible outcome right now: BSW gets just enough votes to make it into parliament.
This results in an unstable government, since CDU/CSU and the expected partner SPD don't have enough seats, with no one willing to help form the government. New elections are called shortly after.
BSW can destroy parliament by simply existing (well, the voters who put us in this situation with so much AFD), and the only hope is that we throw out all their votes when they don't reach 5%. I don't think it's likely, but it is possible.