this post was submitted on 20 Feb 2025
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Summary

NASA has lowered the estimated risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in December 2032 to 1.5%, down from 3.1% a day earlier. The European Space Agency's (ESA) estimate stands at 1.38%.

The asteroid, 40-90 meters wide, could cause significant city-level destruction but not a global catastrophe.

The projected impact corridor spans the Pacific, South America, Africa, and South Asia.

NASA also estimates a 0.8% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon.

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[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 45 points 2 months ago (2 children)

So you're tell me there's a chance?

[–] NocturnalMorning@lemmy.world 5 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago

I'm a Powerball man...

Those are great odds!

[–] Luci@lemmy.ca 2 points 2 months ago

Sure hope so!

[–] SlothMama@lemmy.world 40 points 2 months ago (1 children)

What do we need to get this to %100?

[–] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 25 points 2 months ago (1 children)

It's probably made up of dense materials like iron. Let's pile all the earth's magnets at the White House!

[–] hungryphrog@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 points 2 months ago

I'll give mine, as long as someone helps with the shipping!

[–] commander@lemmings.world 21 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (4 children)

As someone who's played MMOs, 1.5% chance is actually pretty high.

[–] Witchfire@lemmy.world 10 points 2 months ago

As someone who's played XCom, a 1.5% chance of a bad thing (questionable) means it's gonna critically hit

[–] Rai@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 2 months ago

As someone who played Ragnarok Online extensively, 1.5% for a single monster kill means I will never find that item.

Not to mention cards’ .01% drop rate ugh

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[–] TachyonTele@lemm.ee 17 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Keep looking, there's got to be something out there that can hit us!

[–] shittydwarf@lemmy.dbzer0.com 8 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (3 children)

I'm not sure if you saw the recent news but we have a possible new mummy curse, never give up hope

[–] NocturnalMorning@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Yeah, but mummies can be friendly.. asteroids are a sure thing. Just ask the dinosaurs.

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[–] RizzRustbolt@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago

There's always a chance that we can hit by a gamma-ray burst.

[–] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 16 points 2 months ago (5 children)

Everyone hoping there's still a chance, you need to remember... this is only a city-killer asteroid.

We need to hope for a much bigger asteroid.

[–] Wahots@pawb.social 7 points 2 months ago (4 children)

As long as it falls on the right city, it would do the entire world a massive, once in 500 years favor.

[–] Strawberry@lemmy.blahaj.zone 6 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Unfortunately North America doesn't fall under the possible impact zone

[–] samus12345@lemm.ee 4 points 2 months ago

More proof that there's no god.

[–] itslilith@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 points 2 months ago

We have a few years to improve our asteroid deflection capabilities to change that

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[–] Spacehooks@reddthat.com 4 points 2 months ago

Would have been funny if it hit Buenos aires

[–] NotSteve_@lemmy.ca 3 points 2 months ago

If the alien movies serve us correctly, this is luckily going to hit the USA; possibly Washington DC directly.

[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 2 points 2 months ago

If it hit the middle of the ocean, it could be cool and nothing else.

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[–] vivi@slrpnk.net 14 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Reminder that the asteroid is only large enough to destroy a city and, even given the rare chance of it hitting Earth, in all likelihood would land in the ocean and cause no damage. It's not a doomsday asteroid

[–] match@pawb.social 17 points 2 months ago (1 children)

imagine if it falls and perfectly annihilates the trump administration though

[–] marcos@lemmy.world 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Unfortunately, Washington is outside of the possible impact zone. (Well, Washington in Brazil is inside, but it's not about that one.)

[–] Wahots@pawb.social 2 points 2 months ago

DART successfully moved an astroid that was probably way bigger!

[–] starman2112@sh.itjust.works 11 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

Can we please not post daily updates? This is still 7 years away

[–] Zachariah@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] starman2112@sh.itjust.works 3 points 2 months ago

I am down to have monthly updates for the next few years, weekly updates through 2031, and daily updates throughout 2032

I just feel like if we do daily updates for the next 7 years when it's in all likelihood going to miss us, we'll be too complacent when an asteroid does have an impact trajectory

[–] sunglocto@lemmy.dbzer0.com 10 points 2 months ago (1 children)
[–] LongLive@lemmy.world 6 points 2 months ago

🙏🙏🙏

[–] Cryan24@lemmy.world 10 points 2 months ago

Well, that's disappointing..

[–] chiliedogg@lemmy.world 9 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Bets on it being totally ignored by the world if it turns out to be aimed at Africa?

[–] Syntha@sh.itjust.works 6 points 2 months ago

Africa actually does seem to be the most likely impact if it were to hit. The predicted impact would be along the equator.

[–] antlion@lemmy.dbzer0.com 9 points 2 months ago

Just give us the confidence interval and stop updating. We will know better in January 2029 once it has passed by and been tugged by our gravity and the moons.

[–] Microplasticbrain@lemm.ee 7 points 2 months ago

So you're telling me there's still a chance

[–] samus12345@lemm.ee 7 points 2 months ago
[–] Carvex@lemmy.world 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Giant Meteor for Earth President 2032!

[–] crank0271@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago

Why wait? The best time would have been the dawn of civilization. The second best time is now.

[–] Canadian_Cabinet@lemmy.ca 5 points 2 months ago

Damn. The bugs need to up their accuracy

[–] jj4211@lemmy.world 5 points 2 months ago (1 children)

The global astronomical community expects the odds of an asteroid to hit Earth in December 2032 to eventually fall to zero.

I love how they make it seem like some insider expertise versus knowing basics of how percentages work.

[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 6 points 2 months ago

I mean, without knowing what the number represents, it's not obvious why it goes up and then suddenly drops like this.

They basically predict a cross-section of places it could go through, which shrinks with improved data. If the Earth is still inside, that makes it's share go up. Eventually, it hits an edge and the share drops to zero suddenly

[–] Randomgal@lemmy.ca 5 points 2 months ago

Dontgivemehope.meme

[–] ms_lane@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago
[–] Splitwood@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago

The way the world is going, it might not be a bad thing if it hits us.

[–] Zorque@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago

Is this the new seven minutes to midnight? We're 1.5% to asteroid.

[–] Generic_Idiot@lemm.ee 2 points 2 months ago
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