this post was submitted on 21 Jan 2025

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130

Zelenskyy says Russia-Ukraine peace deal would require 200,000 allied troops (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 5 days ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/world@lemmy.world

17 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Summary

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that enforcing a peace deal with Russia would require at least 200,000 allied troops, emphasizing Europe’s need to strengthen its defenses against Russian aggression.

Speaking at Davos, he called for greater EU investment in military technology and urged NATO membership as Ukraine’s best security guarantee, despite opposition from the U.S., Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia.

Zelenskyy criticized Kremlin demands to shrink Ukraine’s army and warned that if Russia wins in Ukraine, it could threaten other nations.

top 17 comments

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[–] greenshirtdenimjeans@sh.itjust.works 52 points 5 days ago (2 children)

This war didn’t end? It’s been over a day since trump took office. He said he would end the war on day 1. No way a stand up guy like donald would lie right?

[–] 30p87@feddit.org 4 points 5 days ago

We all know how he wants to end it, so it not being ended is probably the better option...

[–] jlh@lemmy.jlh.name 23 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (2 children)

Zelenskyy said European leaders should not ask themselves what Trump would do next, and said that they instead needed to take collective steps to defend their continent at a time when it was under aggressive attack by Russia.

“We all need to unite,” he said, adding: “Europe needs to learn how to fully take care of itself, so the world cannot afford to ignore it.”

Zelenskyy showing some true leadership in Davos.

Also, Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia need to shape up and stop blocking Ukraine in NATO (and peace in Ukraine).

[–] Jumi@lemmy.world 6 points 4 days ago

Zelensky for German Bundeskanzler

[–] ms_lane@lemmy.world 4 points 4 days ago

We all need to, Australia only just broke 2.4% GDP on Defense spending.

We usually do pretty well with value for money in ADF (minus every RAN submarine program ever) but the amount is so small. We should be taking notes from Ukraine on how to beat back big players with commodity and easily replicable technology.

.ml won't want to hear it, but we've got a belligerent China to worry about and 2049 is getting closer and closer.

[–] Peck@lemmy.world 2 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Meh who cares what he says now. Trump will negotiate the deal with Putin and then somebody will let Zelensky know what it is. Just like it happened for South Korea.

[–] jlh@lemmy.jlh.name 7 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Like hell he will

[+] Peck@lemmy.world -8 points 5 days ago (1 children)

He totally will. Of course Ukraine can choose to continue on fighting without US support. That prolly won't be very productive. At least not in terms of recovery of land, but they can delay total loss by at least a few years if they choose this.

[–] HK65@sopuli.xyz 8 points 5 days ago (1 children)

The EU has helped more at this point. Of course it won't be easy, but Ukraine can win on just EU support.

[–] Peck@lemmy.world -5 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) (2 children)

They can't "win". If by winning you mean take all their land back. But they can delay losing long enough for administration change in US maybe. EU is helping but it's not enough, their stores are depleted. Also long term prospects in EU don't look good for Ukraine. Many governments are shifting right.

[–] HK65@sopuli.xyz 3 points 4 days ago

New EU factories that have been in the works for years are just kicking in. Some of those EU factories are actually in Ukraine, companies like Rheinmetall have vested interests in not letting that go.

Time is not working for Russia, it never did. They have this year to push, then the EU alone will outmanufacture them.

The best Trump can give them is this one year window.

[–] jlh@lemmy.jlh.name 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

They "can" win, but a war of attrition is always difficult for all parties, and is not guaranteed.

[–] Peck@lemmy.world 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Attrition will only work if they have the same starting point, but Russia has way more population than Ukraine.

[–] jlh@lemmy.jlh.name 2 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

Pure population is not the only factor that determines Russia's and Ukraine's success in the war. There are other factors such as economic output, public support, equipment, ammunition, military personnel, international influence, etc.

Right now the personnel limits for Ukraine and Russia aren't necessarily about each sides' male population, but over side affects that recruiting soldiers has. Ukraine is reluctant to recruit younger soldiers due to the effect it would have on the country's future demographics. Russia is reluctant to recruit more soldiers due to the effect that would have on the country's economy and by extension, war support. In Russia's case, that led to paying North Korea for mercenaries instead of recruiting more soldiers.

Here are relevant videos on the topic that I recommend:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tHkwLSS-DE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiAWQ0h7g-g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf2vSoWsmgI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzR8BacYS6U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHUQmJCa3aY

As it stands right now, the most visible breaking points for each side's war efforts are possibly the exhaustion of one of these: Ukrainian ammunition, Russian MBTs, and Russian economy.

There are other factors ongoing right now though that also make it less likely for each side to give up if a breaking point is reached, such as Ukraine's lack of security guarantees, and the Russian economic fallout of ending the wartime economy.

All of these factors could definitely change though if the international climate changes, e.g. the EU gets more political support for the defense of Ukraine, or sanctions are lifted on Russia.