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Zelenskyy says Russia-Ukraine peace deal would require 200,000 allied troops
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 21 Jan 2025
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They can't "win". If by winning you mean take all their land back. But they can delay losing long enough for administration change in US maybe. EU is helping but it's not enough, their stores are depleted. Also long term prospects in EU don't look good for Ukraine. Many governments are shifting right.
New EU factories that have been in the works for years are just kicking in. Some of those EU factories are actually in Ukraine, companies like Rheinmetall have vested interests in not letting that go.
Time is not working for Russia, it never did. They have this year to push, then the EU alone will outmanufacture them.
The best Trump can give them is this one year window.
They "can" win, but a war of attrition is always difficult for all parties, and is not guaranteed.
Attrition will only work if they have the same starting point, but Russia has way more population than Ukraine.
Pure population is not the only factor that determines Russia's and Ukraine's success in the war. There are other factors such as economic output, public support, equipment, ammunition, military personnel, international influence, etc.
Right now the personnel limits for Ukraine and Russia aren't necessarily about each sides' male population, but over side affects that recruiting soldiers has. Ukraine is reluctant to recruit younger soldiers due to the effect it would have on the country's future demographics. Russia is reluctant to recruit more soldiers due to the effect that would have on the country's economy and by extension, war support. In Russia's case, that led to paying North Korea for mercenaries instead of recruiting more soldiers.
Here are relevant videos on the topic that I recommend:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tHkwLSS-DE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiAWQ0h7g-g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf2vSoWsmgI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzR8BacYS6U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHUQmJCa3aY
As it stands right now, the most visible breaking points for each side's war efforts are possibly the exhaustion of one of these: Ukrainian ammunition, Russian MBTs, and Russian economy.
There are other factors ongoing right now though that also make it less likely for each side to give up if a breaking point is reached, such as Ukraine's lack of security guarantees, and the Russian economic fallout of ending the wartime economy.
All of these factors could definitely change though if the international climate changes, e.g. the EU gets more political support for the defense of Ukraine, or sanctions are lifted on Russia.