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US bombs will hit Venezuelan soil before the ink dries. Best thing for the collective multipolarity movement is to not allow the US the privilege of Strategic Sequencing.

I'll agree the plausible off-ramp is hard to see but I think at this point given the situation on the ground Russia really should demand stronger terms and bigger concessions.

So many loopholes and Russia really is facing down the fact Europe/NATO is going to go to war with it by 2030 after rebuilding their arms production capacity. This may even be part of a hail-mary push by western capital as part of a larger war with China to destroy their enemies and assure their dominance over the world for the rest of the century.

Zelensky becoming a pariah within Ukraine is not really a big victory for Russia. He's just a figurehead, not the cause, he'll be replaced by some politically convenient and relatively clean Nazi instead and Zelensky will go around the west doing speaking tours for fees of half a million dollars while promoting a ghost written book or something and buying up properties around the west to live in, speculate on, etc. Revisionism of the origins of the conflict, Nazism, human rights abuses, etc will continue at a feverish pace throughout the west and he will be very useful for stirring up hatred with lurid made up tales of Ukrainian heroism and Russian depravity.

If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.

This point in particular, the "without cause" is worrisome to me because they can just invent a cause. They can do a false flag, the same thing they've been doing for years. Russia will deny it was them, say false flag, Europe and US and western media will obediently parrot "nuh uh, was totally you" and there you go they have cause. Russia then responds, NATO says you violated it, pours across the Ukraine border, quickly starts arming up and increasing Ukraine army size while protecting Ukraine with NATO assets and saying its all for self-defense and how hostile and aggressive Russia is. Alternatively Russia sees they'll do this and does nothing and Ukraine gets to conduct a terror attack on Moscow and get off scott-free. It should be more nailed down, how not sure, the weapons inspector organizations unfortunately have been totally captured by the EU and NATO and are not impartial at all so they can't be counted on. Perhaps this is one of those cases where you can't hope for perfect but it leaves me uneasy.

All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.

This is also sickening because it means the Nazi war criminals in Ukraine who committed horrendous war crimes (including mass SA, torture, murder, etc) against their own people and against Russian soldiers, will walk free without punishment among society continuing to spread their ideology and perhaps commit crimes and indeed to be recruited as soldiers of fortune by the west for use in proxy conflicts, coups, etc against anti-imperialist forces around the world. Their sadism will be praised and exported.

In particular Ukraine has specialized in intelligence operation assassinations and terror attacks within Russia. This plan includes no specific proviso for preventing them from continuing to do that and then just disavowing or indeed from the west just recruiting from Ukrainian intelligence and their Nazis and running such ops themselves through a covert cover network that technically doesn't have the hands of the government.

Right now it sounds very much like a freeze with some territory concessions that on paper offers Russia its demands but doesn't create real conditions for lasting peace after the betrayals of Minsk 1-2.

Ukraine gets to keep all their fascist Nazi intelligence officers trained by the CIA and keep them at work, they get to keep all their drone operators, even those sent back to civilian work can be called up with their expertise at a moment's notice, they get to keep all the important infrastructure minus a standing force which can be spun up quickly with new bus-ification, all the important knowledge gleaned, all the expertise, all the important lessons learned.

~~CRITICALLY. It just caps their army size, it puts no limits on the technology they can possess or build for military purposes. It caps no weapons or weapons systems. They can go on and build 200,000 ATACMS equivalent missiles and cover their country in advanced missile defense systems, just so long as they keep enlisted numbers under a magic number. It doesn't stop them from forward deploying advanced interception capabilities plus offensive capabilities on the very front lines of the new borders. If I were Russia I would push HARD for at least a demilitarized buffer area within which Ukraine cannot deploy beyond certain established low numbers of offensive and defensive capabilities. Really they should push hard for a cap on certain offensive weapons such as missiles and offensive drones that Ukraine can build, buy, or possess at any one time. A real disarmament needs removal of arms entirely from the possession of Ukraine, not just taking them out of the hands of soldiers and putting them in boxes while continuing to build more and more advanced versions at a frantic pace all while saying how you're only building them to sell to NATO or for export or to defend yourself, etc.~~ (Edit: Apparently it may cap certain weaponry? Okay deal in that case though still not a great moral victory)

Russia might very well go for this. But I can say that war will likely return for them at the hands of Europe and even more likely as soon as the ink is dried Ukrainian intelligence, Ukrainian Nazi terror units, etc will be turned on and used against Venezuela, against AES in Africa, against partner nations too close to China for the US liking in Asia, Africa, etc. So while Russians might have reason to cheer, as anti-imperialists I don't think we have reason to cheer as this is just the empire regrouping on favorable terms for them. Very dangerous times ahead.

Okay, so what is a W for Russia? Plausibly? Where is the off-ramp?

It's a tough question, but certainly not the acceptance of a bad faith peace deal offered up by the US.

Even if Russia has a decisive victory on the battlefield and Ukrainian lines totally collapse, there are still many question marks about what should happen next.

Frankly I don't think such a negotiated compromise peace deal will work at all to permanently resolve this conflict. The US, the ultimate puppet master of Europe and Ukraine, is not operating in good faith.

Regime change.